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<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;color:black'>I am concerned by the S&P’s failure to
close today above yesterdays high. I was expecting a brief but powerful short
term rally from the 780 level. It started out that way yesterday, but today’s
lack of follow thru is causing me to assess a lower target level for tomorrow which
could terminate this move.
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;color:black'>A .618 retracement of the move from the
7-17 high to the 7-24 low would yield 869.
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;color:black'>A .382 retracement of the move from the
6-28 high to the 7-24 low would yield 862.
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;color:black'>If the market stalls in this range
tomorrow 862-869 it could be the end to this brief attempt at a rally.
Ironically the market has a better chance of moving through and exceeding this
range if it fails to go that high tomorrow, and closes in the upper third of it’s
trading range. Likewise if the market can penetrate and close above this level
then my previously posted higher target levels are almost certain to be
reached.
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;color:black'>E
<font size=2 color=purple
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:
Arial'>
<font size=2 color=purple
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:
Arial'>
<font size=2 color=black
face=Tahoma>-----Original
Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
[mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Wednesday, July 24, 2002
9:37 PM
To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators
Anomymous
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>It appears that the 780 Fib. Level has
held, and sparked the beginning of a powerful, but likely short lived short
covering rally. <font color=blue
face=Arial>The
market made it’s low at 775.75 just 4.25 points below the 780 level and it was
only below the 780 level for about 8 minutes.
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>My next targets for the end of this brief
rally are:
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>First target 896-902 level which
corresponds to a .382 retracement of the move down from the 5-17 high to
today’s low which works out to be 902. If this target range is reached it will
likely be done by Friday or Monday.
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>My next and equally as likely to occur
target is 889 if the market fails to reach the previous targets by Monday then
this becomes the most likely target. I would look for this target to be hit on
7-31 or 8-1. This price level corresponds to a 50% retracement of the move from
the 6-28 high down to today’s low.
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>E
<font
size=2 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>
<font size=3 color=blue
face="Times New Roman"><span
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <font size=2
color=black face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;
color:black'>-----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
[mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Tuesday, July 23, 2002 9:42
PM
To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators
Anomymous<span style='color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"> <font
color=black>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial>So far
the market is holding up, that is to say it is not crashing. Right now the
market stands at the edge of the cliff right at the crossroads of a brief but
possibly strong rally, and slipping into panic selling crash mode.<font
color=black face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial> <font
color=black face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial>Tomorrow's
key levels are 791.55 and 780.<span
style='font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial> <font
color=black face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial>791.55
represents a 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the move from the 5-17 high to the
6-14 low as measured from the 7-8 high. I have previously posted the Fibonacci
relationships associated with the 780 level.<font color=black
face=Arial>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial> <font
color=black face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial>The market
could find support at either one of these two levels which could spark a brief
two to five day rally. If this rally does take place it will likely be only an
interruption to the current powerful down trend. If the 780 level fails to hold
support tomorrow there could be full scale panic selling.<font
color=black face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial> <font
color=black face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial>I do
not think that will be the case. First off my timing model is calling for a
short term bottom to be made tomorrow +or - 4 trading days. Secondly the 780
level appears to be a very strong support level, and finally it looks like we
are completing a short term corrective pattern on the hourly chart that often
precedes reversals.<span
style='font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial> <font
color=black face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial>E<span
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <font color=black
face=Arial>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial> <font
color=black face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"> <font
color=black>
<font size=3 color=black
face="Courier New"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";
mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>
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