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<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>It
appears that the 780 Fib. Level has held, and sparked the beginning of a
powerful, but likely short lived short covering rally. <span
class=EmailStyle28><span style='mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>The market made it’s low at 775.75 just
4.25 points below the 780 level and it was only below the 780 level for about 8
minutes.
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>My
next targets for the end of this brief rally are:
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>First
target 896-902 level which corresponds to a .382 retracement of the move down
from the 5-17 high to today’s low which works out to be 902. If this target
range is reached it will likely be done by Friday or Monday.
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>My
next and equally as likely to occur target is 889 if the market fails to reach
the previous targets by Monday then this becomes the most likely target. I
would look for this target to be hit on 7-31 or 8-1. This price level
corresponds to a 50% retracement of the move from the 6-28 high down to today’s
low.
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>E
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:blue'><span style="mso-spacerun:
yes"> <span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:black'>-----Original
Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
[mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Tuesday, July 23, 2002 9:42
PM
To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators
Anomymous
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial>So far
the market is holding up, that is to say it is not crashing. Right now the
market stands at the edge of the cliff right at the crossroads of a brief but
possibly strong rally, and slipping into panic selling crash mode.<font
color=black face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial> <font
color=black face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial>Tomorrow's
key levels are 791.55 and 780.<span
style='font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial> <font
color=black face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial>791.55
represents a 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the move from the 5-17 high to the
6-14 low as measured from the 7-8 high. I have previously posted the Fibonacci
relationships associated with the 780 level.<font color=black
face=Arial>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial> <font
color=black face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial>The
market could find support at either one of these two levels which could spark a
brief two to five day rally. If this rally does take place it will likely be
only an interruption to the current powerful down trend. If the 780 level fails
to hold support tomorrow there could be full scale panic selling.<font
color=black face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial> <font
color=black face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial>I do
not think that will be the case. First off my timing model is calling for a
short term bottom to be made tomorrow +or - 4 trading days. Secondly the 780
level appears to be a very strong support level, and finally it looks like we
are completing a short term corrective pattern on the hourly chart that often
precedes reversals.<span
style='font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial> <font
color=black face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial>E<span
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <font color=black
face=Arial>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial> <font
color=black face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"> <font
color=black>
<font size=3 color=black
face="Courier New"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";
mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>
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