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Re: [RT] Prognosticators Anomymous



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Hello 
today is an inside day for qqq, sp, and nd,
a break  above yesterday high  will be 
positive
and a break under today low  negative
Ben
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From: 
  Hill, 
  Ernie 
  To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  href="mailto:'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'">'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx' 
  
  Sent: Thursday, July 25, 2002 10:31 
  PM
  Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators 
  Anomymous
  
  
  <SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black">I am concerned by the S&P’s failure 
  to close today above yesterdays high. I was expecting a brief but powerful 
  short term rally from the 780 level. It started out that way yesterday, but 
  today’s lack of follow thru is causing me to assess a lower target level for 
  tomorrow which could terminate this move.
  <SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black">A .618 retracement of the move from the 
  7-17 high to the 7-24 low would yield 869.
  <SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black">A .382 retracement of the move from the 
  6-28 high to the 7-24 low would yield 862.
  <SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black">If the market stalls in this range 
  tomorrow 862-869 it could be the end to this brief attempt at a rally. 
  Ironically the market has a better chance of moving through and exceeding this 
  range if it fails to go that high tomorrow, and closes in the upper third of 
  it’s trading range. Likewise if the market can penetrate and close above this 
  level then my previously posted higher target levels are almost certain to be 
  reached.
  <SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black">E
  <FONT face=Arial color=purple 
  size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"> 
  <FONT face=Arial color=purple 
  size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"> 
  <FONT face=Tahoma color=black 
  size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">-----Original 
  Message-----From: Hill, 
  Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]<SPAN 
  style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent: Wednesday, July 24, 2002 9:37 
  PMTo: 
  'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'<SPAN 
  style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators 
  Anomymous
  <FONT face="Times New Roman" 
  size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"> 
  <FONT 
  face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">It 
  appears that the 780 Fib. Level has held, and sparked the beginning of a 
  powerful, but likely short lived short covering rally. 
  <FONT face=Arial 
  color=blue><SPAN 
  style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">The market 
  made it’s low at 775.75 just 4.25 points below the 780 level and it was only 
  below the 780 level for about 8 minutes.
  <FONT 
  face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt"> 
  <FONT 
  face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">My 
  next targets for the end of this brief rally 
  are:
  <FONT 
  face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt"> 
  <FONT 
  face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">First 
  target 896-902 level which corresponds to a .382 retracement of the move down 
  from the 5-17 high to today’s low which works out to be 902. If this target 
  range is reached it will likely be done by Friday or 
  Monday.
  <FONT 
  face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt"> 
  <FONT 
  face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">My 
  next and equally as likely to occur target is 889 if the market fails to reach 
  the previous targets by Monday then this becomes the most likely target. I 
  would look for this target to be hit on 7-31 or 8-1. This price level 
  corresponds to a 50% retracement of the move from the 6-28 high down to 
  today’s low.
  <FONT 
  face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt"> 
  <FONT 
  face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">E
  <FONT 
  face=Arial color=blue size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"> 
  <FONT face="Times New Roman" 
  color=blue size=3><SPAN 
  style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face=Tahoma 
  color=black size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">-----Original 
  Message-----From: Hill, 
  Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]<SPAN 
  style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent: Tuesday, July 23, 2002 9:42 
  PMTo: 
  'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'<SPAN 
  style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators 
  Anomymous<SPAN 
  style="COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
  <FONT face="Times New Roman" 
  color=black size=3> <FONT 
  color=black><SPAN 
  style="COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
  <FONT face=Arial color=black 
  size=3>So far 
  the market is holding up, that is to say it is not crashing. Right now the 
  market stands at the edge of the cliff right at the crossroads of a brief but 
  possibly strong rally, and slipping into panic selling crash 
  mode.<SPAN 
  style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
  <FONT face=Arial color=black 
  size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <FONT 
  face=Arial color=black><SPAN 
  style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
  <FONT face=Arial color=black 
  size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Tomorrow's key 
  levels are 791.55 and 780.<SPAN 
  style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
  <FONT face=Arial color=black 
  size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <FONT 
  face=Arial color=black><SPAN 
  style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
  <FONT face=Arial color=black 
  size=3>791.55 
  represents a 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the move from the 5-17 high to the 
  6-14 low as measured from the 7-8 high. I have previously posted the Fibonacci 
  relationships associated with the 780 level.<FONT face=Arial 
  color=black><SPAN 
  style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
  <FONT face=Arial color=black 
  size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <FONT 
  face=Arial color=black><SPAN 
  style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
  <FONT face=Arial color=black 
  size=3>The 
  market could find support at either one of these two levels which could spark 
  a brief two to five day rally. If this rally does take place it will likely be 
  only an interruption to the current powerful down trend. If the 780 level 
  fails to hold support tomorrow there could be full scale panic 
  selling.<SPAN 
  style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
  <FONT face=Arial color=black 
  size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <FONT 
  face=Arial color=black><SPAN 
  style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
  <FONT face=Arial color=black 
  size=3>I do 
  not think that will be the case. First off my timing model is calling for a 
  short term bottom to be made tomorrow +or - 4 trading days. Secondly the 780 
  level appears to be a very strong support level, and finally it looks like we 
  are completing a short term corrective pattern on the hourly chart that often 
  precedes reversals.<SPAN 
  style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
  <FONT face=Arial color=black 
  size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <FONT 
  face=Arial color=black><SPAN 
  style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
  <FONT face=Arial color=black 
  size=3>E<SPAN 
  style="mso-spacerun: yes">  <FONT face=Arial 
  color=black><SPAN 
  style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
  <FONT face=Arial color=black 
  size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <FONT 
  face=Arial color=black><SPAN 
  style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
  <FONT face="Times New Roman" 
  color=black size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"> <FONT 
  color=black><SPAN 
  style="COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
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