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Ernie,
I just read something that
shows the cyclic envelope
top stiff resistance in your
retracement areas.
Shows the bullish path
of what it
would take to turn that envelope up.
This isn't larger cycles
drawn on here. But,
with the turn up; could
"seal" the low in place
for the Larger Cycles.
Permission obtained to
post it.
Best,
Rhonda
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Hill,
Ernie
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'">'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Sent: Thursday, July 25, 2002 9:31
PM
Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators
Anomymous
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black">I am concerned by the S&P’s failure
to close today above yesterdays high. I was expecting a brief but powerful
short term rally from the 780 level. It started out that way yesterday, but
today’s lack of follow thru is causing me to assess a lower target level for
tomorrow which could terminate this move.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black">A .618 retracement of the move from the
7-17 high to the 7-24 low would yield 869.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black">A .382 retracement of the move from the
6-28 high to the 7-24 low would yield 862.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black">If the market stalls in this range
tomorrow 862-869 it could be the end to this brief attempt at a rally.
Ironically the market has a better chance of moving through and exceeding this
range if it fails to go that high tomorrow, and closes in the upper third of
it’s trading range. Likewise if the market can penetrate and close above this
level then my previously posted higher target levels are almost certain to be
reached.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black">E
<FONT face=Arial color=purple
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT face=Arial color=purple
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT face=Tahoma color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">-----Original
Message-----From: Hill,
Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]<SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent: Wednesday, July 24, 2002 9:37
PMTo:
'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'<SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators
Anomymous
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
<FONT
face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">It
appears that the 780 Fib. Level has held, and sparked the beginning of a
powerful, but likely short lived short covering rally.
<FONT face=Arial
color=blue><SPAN
style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">The market
made it’s low at 775.75 just 4.25 points below the 780 level and it was only
below the 780 level for about 8 minutes.
<FONT
face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT
face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">My
next targets for the end of this brief rally
are:
<FONT
face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT
face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">First
target 896-902 level which corresponds to a .382 retracement of the move down
from the 5-17 high to today’s low which works out to be 902. If this target
range is reached it will likely be done by Friday or
Monday.
<FONT
face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT
face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">My
next and equally as likely to occur target is 889 if the market fails to reach
the previous targets by Monday then this becomes the most likely target. I
would look for this target to be hit on 7-31 or 8-1. This price level
corresponds to a 50% retracement of the move from the 6-28 high down to
today’s low.
<FONT
face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT
face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">E
<FONT
face=Arial color=blue size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
color=blue size=3><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face=Tahoma
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">-----Original
Message-----From: Hill,
Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]<SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent: Tuesday, July 23, 2002 9:42
PMTo:
'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'<SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators
Anomymous<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
color=black size=3> <FONT
color=black><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=3>So far
the market is holding up, that is to say it is not crashing. Right now the
market stands at the edge of the cliff right at the crossroads of a brief but
possibly strong rally, and slipping into panic selling crash
mode.<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <FONT
face=Arial color=black><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Tomorrow's key
levels are 791.55 and 780.<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <FONT
face=Arial color=black><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=3>791.55
represents a 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the move from the 5-17 high to the
6-14 low as measured from the 7-8 high. I have previously posted the Fibonacci
relationships associated with the 780 level.<FONT face=Arial
color=black><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <FONT
face=Arial color=black><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=3>The
market could find support at either one of these two levels which could spark
a brief two to five day rally. If this rally does take place it will likely be
only an interruption to the current powerful down trend. If the 780 level
fails to hold support tomorrow there could be full scale panic
selling.<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <FONT
face=Arial color=black><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=3>I do
not think that will be the case. First off my timing model is calling for a
short term bottom to be made tomorrow +or - 4 trading days. Secondly the 780
level appears to be a very strong support level, and finally it looks like we
are completing a short term corrective pattern on the hourly chart that often
precedes reversals.<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <FONT
face=Arial color=black><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=3>E<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <FONT face=Arial
color=black><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
<FONT face=Arial color=black
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