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Greenspan should have retired YEARS ago....
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Adrian Pitt [mailto:apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Saturday, July 20, 2002 2:07 AM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: RE: [RT] : [MedianLine] Log Chart:Quarterly SP500
>
>
> John,
>
> I agree to some extent.....In Greenspans case he had little choice But
> to say what he did..and he is only quoting economic facts as they Stand
> of course. He must show confidence...whats his downside? Very
> Little...if he is wrong..he retires...he's close to it anyway.
> As for others though....they have no obligation but to provide sound
> Advice. When the theatre is burning down though....and you survey
> Everyone as to what they should do...and they all try to do the right
> Thing and say don't panic....be calm....who is the winner?
>
> THE GUY WHO PANICS!! LOL
>
> Anyone who knows anything about markets or charts would have been out
> of this market some months ago or more on an intermediate to long Term
> basis. Even short term...who on earth would try to pick a low here? So
> the only ones left are the people listening to the 'wise' 'consensus'
> Advice.
>
> Anyone heard about the "Boiling Frog Syndrome"?
>
> Adrian
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: John Cappello [mailto:jvc689@xxxxxxx]
> > Sent: Saturday, 20 July 2002 3:52 PM
> > To: Adrian Pitt; MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Cc: 'Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'; 'Swingmachine'
> > Subject: [RT] : [MedianLine] Log Chart:Quarterly SP500
> >
> >
> > Adrian,
> >
> > There is little doubt that your post [in response to Clyde's gif] has
> > a great deal of validity. The fact of the matter is the people giving
> > this "unsound advice" are trying to avoid a run on the stock market
> > [further cashing out]similar to a run on the banks.
> >
> > That is not to say the advice is to be condoned but hopefully
> > understood. They are basically trying to buy time.
> >
> > Greenspan to Buffet know this and hence their All American promo....
> > One veiled and one overt.
> >
> > My compliments to you.
> >
> > John
> >
> >
> >
> > ------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
> > Originally From: "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Subject: RE: [MedianLine] Log Chart:Quarterly SP500
> > Date: 07/20/2002 03:10pm
> >
> >
> > Clyde,
> >
> > Whats scary, is that people would even postulate such unsound
> > advice. It seems the level of complacency in this market is
> > amazingly resilient.
> > Economists,
> > strategists and
> > now some technical people are all largely suggesting the
> > market is undervalued (although they say the US is still
> > overvalued relative to others). Is everyone
> > missing
> > what is happening
> > here? People's sacred capital is at risk and its suggested
> > we should buy more? It seems so few understand the concept
> > of risk..it staggers me beyond belief. The lack of
> > understanding is at every level in the hierarchy. It seems
> > every still wants to
> > pick
> > the low...doesn't that tell
> > you something? I read the online stuff and al the papers
> > this weekend..and its all the same. Markets should be higher
> > in a years time..as the economy is growing
> > and
> > where undervalued.
> > OH MY GOD!! Anyone who follows this line of thinking is done for.
> > Very
> > few people in my
> > observation truly understand what is happening right now. Of course
> > the
> > economists literally
> > have no idea. They say the market 'should' be going up
> > because the 'recession' has already
> > ended...LOL...
> >
> > Now make it clear...I'm not a doom and gloomer...I'm a realist. But
> > in
> > all my years I have never
> > been more scared about what lies ahead...and you should be
> > too. That means capital preservation is RULE NO 1. The
> > market is shouting loud and clear that all is not
> > well....forget the fact the US economy is still growing.
> > This decline is NOT just a P/E contraction phase, although that is a
> > large whack of it. It will be many months before you see
> > economic numbers appear to validate whats happening in the
> > market. Do you want to wait for that when it can
> > drop
> > 5% in a night?
> >
> > It not hard to deal with. If the market is going down it
> > will make lower lows and lower highs. If its going up it
> > will make higher highs and higher lows...simple. Remember
> > what Gann said...no low is too low to sell...no matter how
> > low it may seem. People have
> > become
> > accustomed to absurd
> > valuations....this is changing. It will hurt many
> > people....especially
> > those who can't except reality
> > or those that suggest you should buy even more shares when your
> > already
> > losing money?????
> >
> > Adrian Pitt
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Clyde Lee [mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx]
> > Sent: Saturday, 20 July 2002 2:24 PM
> > To: MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Cc: Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx; Swingmachine
> > Subject: Re: [MedianLine] Log Chart:Quarterly SP500
> >
> >
> > First, I apologize to those of you who are members of more
> > than one of the three lists that I am posting this to.
> >
> > This post is to try to put some real perspective of this
> > "bear" to all prior
> > bears since (but not including) the 1929 fiasco.
> >
> > As you will see, we are in a zone where it is really hard to
> > estimate whether investor confidence will recover enough to
> > turn around very soon or if we are to be drug down to some of
> > the further depths to which the market has been subjected in
> > prior years.
> >
> > Later this weekend I will modify the SM program and only
> > record down moves that have lasted 4 to 8 months and post
> > them on a chart similar to
> > this
> > so we
> > can have some more ideas of what may happen very soon.
> >
> > The interesting thing is that even if we are not at the
> > bottom, two years from now we can expect to be somewhere in
> > the range of 9,500 to 15,000.
> >
> > If the latter figure is true (and a bunch of projections point in that
> > direction)
> > then we could have an increase to 200 % of present value of a
> > portfolio
> > if
> > we just bought the DOW stocks.
> >
> > Kinda scary/amazing is it not ? ? ? ?
> > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> > Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
> > SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> > 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
> > Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
> > Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
> > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: John <mailto:jjw@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> Wintels
> > To: MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Sent: Friday, July 19, 2002 8:58 PM
> > Subject: Re: [MedianLine] Log Chart:Quarterly SP500
> >
> > Thank you for finally saying it! Please forward to O'Reilly,
> > Imus, Peter Jennings, The Today Show, Meet The Depressed, and the guy
> > standing
> > on the ledge over there . . .
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Mr. Kevin <mailto:bantz@xxxxxxxxxxx> Bantz
> > To: SPX_Swing_Trading@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Sent: Friday, July 19, 2002 9:24 PM
> > Subject: [MedianLine] Log Chart:Quarterly SP500
> >
> > Putting things into perspective, it doesn't look so bad...
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > MedianLine-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
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> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
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