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My opinion with regard to individual investors is that they are so
convinced that "buy and hold" is the only way to go and that they should
not give in to temptation to sell at the bottom, that the panic which has
marked previous bottoms, may not materalize. (Except possibly by
institutions).
The fact is that there are some really excellent values in the markets now
and there are other issues that are *still* insanely over-priced. One day
.. maybe .. "in a galaxy far, far, away" .. we will reward stock pickers
who know what they are doing and stop herding to the door or to the buy
window. This "truth in financial reports" deadline is going to keep
pressure on equities as investors try to guess who will be forced to own up
to a "new truth". My feeling is that other than this, we have enough
people who think the markets are doomed that we could find a bottom soon
and we also have enough who expect us to find a bottom soon, that we may
not find it. I do know there is going to be continued volatility and that
is what makes traders money.
Good luck to all of you next week... be nimble and keep an open mind.
Bob
At 01:51 AM 7/20/2002 -0400, you wrote:
>Adrian,
>
>There is little doubt that your post [in response to Clyde's gif] has
>a great deal of validity. The fact of the matter is the people giving
>this "unsound advice" are trying to avoid a run on the stock market
>[further cashing out]similar to a run on the banks.
>
>That is not to say the advice is to be condoned but hopefully
>understood. They are basically trying to buy time.
>
>Greenspan to Buffet know this and hence their All American promo....
>One veiled and one overt.
>
>My compliments to you.
>
>John
>
>
>
>------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
>Originally From: "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Subject: RE: [MedianLine] Log Chart:Quarterly SP500
>Date: 07/20/2002 03:10pm
>
>
>Clyde,
>
>Whats scary, is that people would even postulate such unsound advice.
>It seems the
>level of complacency in this market is amazingly resilient.
>Economists,
>strategists and
>now some technical people are all largely suggesting the market is
>undervalued (although they
>say the US is still overvalued relative to others). Is everyone
>missing
>what is happening
>here? People's sacred capital is at risk and its suggested we should
>buy more? It seems
>so few understand the concept of risk..it staggers me beyond belief.
>The lack of understanding
>is at every level in the hierarchy. It seems every still wants to
>pick
>the low...doesn't that tell
>you something? I read the online stuff and al the papers this
>weekend..and its all the same.
>Markets should be higher in a years time..as the economy is growing
>and
>where undervalued.
>OH MY GOD!! Anyone who follows this line of thinking is done for.
>Very
>few people in my
>observation truly understand what is happening right now. Of course
>the
>economists literally
>have no idea. They say the market 'should' be going up because the
>'recession' has already
>ended...LOL...
>
>Now make it clear...I'm not a doom and gloomer...I'm a realist. But
>in
>all my years I have never
>been more scared about what lies ahead...and you should be too. That
>means capital preservation
>is RULE NO 1. The market is shouting loud and clear that all is not
>well....forget the fact the US
>economy is still growing. This decline is NOT just a P/E contraction
>phase, although that is a
>large whack of it. It will be many months before you see economic
>numbers appear to validate whats
>happening in the market. Do you want to wait for that when it can
>drop
>5% in a night?
>
>It not hard to deal with. If the market is going down it will make
>lower lows and lower highs. If its
>going up it will make higher highs and higher lows...simple. Remember
>what Gann said...no low
>is too low to sell...no matter how low it may seem. People have
>become
>accustomed to absurd
>valuations....this is changing. It will hurt many
>people....especially
>those who can't except reality
>or those that suggest you should buy even more shares when your
>already
>losing money?????
>
>Adrian Pitt
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Clyde Lee [mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx]
>Sent: Saturday, 20 July 2002 2:24 PM
>To: MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>Cc: Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx; Swingmachine
>Subject: Re: [MedianLine] Log Chart:Quarterly SP500
>
>
>First, I apologize to those of you who are members of more than one of
>the
>three lists that I am posting this to.
>
>This post is to try to put some real perspective of this "bear" to all
>prior
>bears since (but not including) the 1929 fiasco.
>
>As you will see, we are in a zone where it is really hard to estimate
>whether
>investor confidence will recover enough to turn around very soon or if
>we
>are to be drug down to some of the further depths to which the market
>has been subjected in prior years.
>
>Later this weekend I will modify the SM program and only record down
>moves
>that have lasted 4 to 8 months and post them on a chart similar to
>this
>so we
>can have some more ideas of what may happen very soon.
>
>The interesting thing is that even if we are not at the bottom, two
>years from
>now we can expect to be somewhere in the range of 9,500 to 15,000.
>
>If the latter figure is true (and a bunch of projections point in that
>direction)
>then we could have an increase to 200 % of present value of a
>portfolio
>if
>we just bought the DOW stocks.
>
>Kinda scary/amazing is it not ? ? ? ?
>- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
>Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
>SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
>7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
>Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
>Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
>- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
>
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: John <mailto:jjw@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> Wintels
>To: MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>Sent: Friday, July 19, 2002 8:58 PM
>Subject: Re: [MedianLine] Log Chart:Quarterly SP500
>
>Thank you for finally saying it! Please forward to O'Reilly, Imus,
>Peter Jennings, The Today Show, Meet The Depressed, and the guy
>standing
>on the ledge over there . . .
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: Mr. Kevin <mailto:bantz@xxxxxxxxxxx> Bantz
>To: SPX_Swing_Trading@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>Sent: Friday, July 19, 2002 9:24 PM
>Subject: [MedianLine] Log Chart:Quarterly SP500
>
>Putting things into perspective, it doesn't look so bad...
>
>
>
>
>
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>
>
>
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