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John,
I agree to some extent.....In Greenspans case he had little choice But
to say what he did..and he is only quoting economic facts as they Stand
of course. He must show confidence...whats his downside? Very
Little...if he is wrong..he retires...he's close to it anyway.
As for others though....they have no obligation but to provide sound
Advice. When the theatre is burning down though....and you survey
Everyone as to what they should do...and they all try to do the right
Thing and say don't panic....be calm....who is the winner?
THE GUY WHO PANICS!! LOL
Anyone who knows anything about markets or charts would have been out
of this market some months ago or more on an intermediate to long Term
basis. Even short term...who on earth would try to pick a low here? So
the only ones left are the people listening to the 'wise' 'consensus'
Advice.
Anyone heard about the "Boiling Frog Syndrome"?
Adrian
> -----Original Message-----
> From: John Cappello [mailto:jvc689@xxxxxxx]
> Sent: Saturday, 20 July 2002 3:52 PM
> To: Adrian Pitt; MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Cc: 'Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'; 'Swingmachine'
> Subject: [RT] : [MedianLine] Log Chart:Quarterly SP500
>
>
> Adrian,
>
> There is little doubt that your post [in response to Clyde's gif] has
> a great deal of validity. The fact of the matter is the people giving
> this "unsound advice" are trying to avoid a run on the stock market
> [further cashing out]similar to a run on the banks.
>
> That is not to say the advice is to be condoned but hopefully
> understood. They are basically trying to buy time.
>
> Greenspan to Buffet know this and hence their All American promo....
> One veiled and one overt.
>
> My compliments to you.
>
> John
>
>
>
> ------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
> Originally From: "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: RE: [MedianLine] Log Chart:Quarterly SP500
> Date: 07/20/2002 03:10pm
>
>
> Clyde,
>
> Whats scary, is that people would even postulate such unsound
> advice. It seems the level of complacency in this market is
> amazingly resilient.
> Economists,
> strategists and
> now some technical people are all largely suggesting the
> market is undervalued (although they say the US is still
> overvalued relative to others). Is everyone
> missing
> what is happening
> here? People's sacred capital is at risk and its suggested
> we should buy more? It seems so few understand the concept
> of risk..it staggers me beyond belief. The lack of
> understanding is at every level in the hierarchy. It seems
> every still wants to
> pick
> the low...doesn't that tell
> you something? I read the online stuff and al the papers
> this weekend..and its all the same. Markets should be higher
> in a years time..as the economy is growing
> and
> where undervalued.
> OH MY GOD!! Anyone who follows this line of thinking is done for.
> Very
> few people in my
> observation truly understand what is happening right now. Of course
> the
> economists literally
> have no idea. They say the market 'should' be going up
> because the 'recession' has already
> ended...LOL...
>
> Now make it clear...I'm not a doom and gloomer...I'm a realist. But
> in
> all my years I have never
> been more scared about what lies ahead...and you should be
> too. That means capital preservation is RULE NO 1. The
> market is shouting loud and clear that all is not
> well....forget the fact the US economy is still growing.
> This decline is NOT just a P/E contraction phase, although that is a
> large whack of it. It will be many months before you see
> economic numbers appear to validate whats happening in the
> market. Do you want to wait for that when it can
> drop
> 5% in a night?
>
> It not hard to deal with. If the market is going down it
> will make lower lows and lower highs. If its going up it
> will make higher highs and higher lows...simple. Remember
> what Gann said...no low is too low to sell...no matter how
> low it may seem. People have
> become
> accustomed to absurd
> valuations....this is changing. It will hurt many
> people....especially
> those who can't except reality
> or those that suggest you should buy even more shares when your
> already
> losing money?????
>
> Adrian Pitt
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Clyde Lee [mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Saturday, 20 July 2002 2:24 PM
> To: MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Cc: Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx; Swingmachine
> Subject: Re: [MedianLine] Log Chart:Quarterly SP500
>
>
> First, I apologize to those of you who are members of more
> than one of the three lists that I am posting this to.
>
> This post is to try to put some real perspective of this
> "bear" to all prior
> bears since (but not including) the 1929 fiasco.
>
> As you will see, we are in a zone where it is really hard to
> estimate whether investor confidence will recover enough to
> turn around very soon or if we are to be drug down to some of
> the further depths to which the market has been subjected in
> prior years.
>
> Later this weekend I will modify the SM program and only
> record down moves that have lasted 4 to 8 months and post
> them on a chart similar to
> this
> so we
> can have some more ideas of what may happen very soon.
>
> The interesting thing is that even if we are not at the
> bottom, two years from now we can expect to be somewhere in
> the range of 9,500 to 15,000.
>
> If the latter figure is true (and a bunch of projections point in that
> direction)
> then we could have an increase to 200 % of present value of a
> portfolio
> if
> we just bought the DOW stocks.
>
> Kinda scary/amazing is it not ? ? ? ?
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
> SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
> Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
> Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: John <mailto:jjw@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> Wintels
> To: MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Friday, July 19, 2002 8:58 PM
> Subject: Re: [MedianLine] Log Chart:Quarterly SP500
>
> Thank you for finally saying it! Please forward to O'Reilly,
> Imus, Peter Jennings, The Today Show, Meet The Depressed, and the guy
> standing
> on the ledge over there . . .
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Mr. Kevin <mailto:bantz@xxxxxxxxxxx> Bantz
> To: SPX_Swing_Trading@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Friday, July 19, 2002 9:24 PM
> Subject: [MedianLine] Log Chart:Quarterly SP500
>
> Putting things into perspective, it doesn't look so bad...
>
>
>
>
>
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>
>
>
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>
>
>
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