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RE: [RT] RE: [MedianLine] Log Chart:Quarterly SP500



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The only thing 
REALLY scary is how stupid and incompetent our government 
is.
<FONT color=#0000ff 
size=2> 
They proven: all 
of the financial resources and technology at their disposal is totally worthless 
without good management and cooperative departments.
<FONT color=#0000ff 
size=2> 
Wait ! Bush 
FINALLY fired someone .....maybe an improvement is coming.
 
-----Original Message-----From: Adrian 
Pitt [mailto:apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Saturday, July 20, 2002 1:10 
AMTo: MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxCc: 
'Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'; 'Swingmachine'Subject: [RT] RE: 
[MedianLine] Log Chart:Quarterly SP500
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid">
  
  <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
  size=2>Clyde,
  <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
  size=2> 
  <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
  size=2>Whats scary, is that people would even postulate such unsound 
  advice.  It seems the
  <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
  size=2>level of complacency in this market is amazingly resilient.  
  Economists, strategists and
  <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
  size=2>now some technical people 
  are all largely suggesting the market is undervalued (although 
  they
  say 
  the US is still overvalued relative to others).  Is everyone missing what 
  is happening
  <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
  size=2>here?  People's sacred capital is at risk and its suggested we 
  should buy more?  It seems
  so 
  few understand the concept of risk..it staggers me beyond belief.  The 
  lack of understanding
  <FONT 
  size=2>is at every level in the hierarchy.  <SPAN 
  class=510350005-20072002>It seems every still wants to pick the low...doesn't 
  that tell
  <FONT 
  size=2>you something?  I read the online 
  stuff and al the papers this weekend..and its all the 
  same.
  <FONT 
  size=2>Markets should be higher in a years 
  time..as the economy is growing and where 
  undervalued.
  <FONT 
  size=2>OH MY GOD!!  Anyone who follows 
  this line of thinking is done for.  Very few people in 
  my
  <FONT 
  size=2>observation truly understand what is 
  happening right now.  Of course the economists literally 
  
  <FONT 
  size=2>have no idea.  They say the market 
  'should' be going up because the 'recession' has already 
  
  <FONT 
  size=2><SPAN 
  class=510350005-20072002>ended...LOL...
  <FONT 
  size=2><SPAN 
  class=510350005-20072002> 
  <FONT 
  size=2>Now make it clear...I'm not a doom and 
  gloomer...I'm a realist.  But in all my years I have never 
  
  <FONT 
  size=2>been more scared about what lies 
  ahead...and you should be too.  That means capital 
  preservation
  <FONT 
  size=2>is RULE NO 1.  The market is 
  shouting loud and clear that all is not well....forget the fact the 
  US
  <FONT 
  size=2>economy is still growing.  This 
  decline is NOT just a P/E contraction phase, although that is a 
  
  <FONT 
  size=2>large whack of it.  It will be many 
  months before you see economic numbers appear to validate 
  whats
  <FONT 
  size=2>happening in the market.  Do you 
  want to wait for that when it can drop 5% in a 
  night?
  <FONT 
  size=2><SPAN 
  class=510350005-20072002> 
  <FONT 
  size=2>It not hard to deal with.  If the 
  market is going down it will make lower lows and lower highs.  If 
  its
  <FONT 
  size=2>going up it will make higher highs and 
  higher lows...simple.  Remember what Gann said...no 
  low
  <FONT 
  size=2>is too low to sell...no matter how low 
  it may seem.  People have become accustomed to 
  absurd
  <FONT 
  size=2>valuations....this is changing.  It 
  will hurt many people....especially those who can't except 
  reality
  <FONT 
  size=2>or those that suggest you should buy 
  even more shares when your already losing 
  money?????
  <FONT 
  size=2><SPAN 
  class=510350005-20072002> 
  <FONT 
  size=2>Adrian 
  Pitt
  <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
  style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    
    <FONT 
    face=Tahoma size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Clyde Lee 
    [mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx] Sent: Saturday, 20 July 2002 2:24 
    PMTo: MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxCc: 
    Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx; SwingmachineSubject: Re: 
    [MedianLine] Log Chart:Quarterly SP500
    First, I apologize to those of you who are 
    members of more than one of the
    three lists that I am posting this 
    to.
     
    This post is to try to put some real 
    perspective of this "bear" to all prior 
    bears since (but not including) the 1929 
    fiasco.
     
    As you will see, we are in a zone where it is 
    really hard to estimate whether
    investor confidence will recover enough to turn 
    around very soon or if we
    are to be drug down to some of the further 
    depths to which the market
    has been subjected in prior years.
     
    Later this weekend I will modify the SM program 
    and only record down moves
    that have lasted 4 to 8 months and post them on 
    a chart similar to this so we
    can have some more ideas of what may happen 
    very soon.
     
    The interesting thing is that even if we are 
    not at the bottom, two years from
    now we can expect to be somewhere in the range 
    of 9,500 to 15,000.
     
    If the latter figure is true (and a bunch of 
    projections point in that direction)
    then we could have an increase to 200 % of 
    present value of a portfolio if
    we just bought the DOW stocks.
     
    Kinda scary/amazing is it not ? ? ? 
    ?
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  - - - - - - -Clyde 
    Lee   
    Chairman/CEO          (Home of 
    SwingMachine)SYTECH 
    Corporation          email: <A 
    href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx  7910 
    Westglen, Suite 105       
    Office:    (713) 783-9540Houston,  TX  
    77063               
    Fax:    (713) 783-1092Details 
    at:                      
    www.theswingmachine.com- - 
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  - - - - - - - -
    <BLOCKQUOTE 
    style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
      ----- Original Message ----- 
      <DIV 
      style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From: 
      John 
      Wintels 
      To: <A 
      title=MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
      href="mailto:MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
      
      Sent: Friday, July 19, 2002 8:58 
      PM
      Subject: Re: [MedianLine] Log 
      Chart:Quarterly SP500
      
      Thank you for finally saying it!  Please 
      forward to O'Reilly, Imus, Peter Jennings, The Today Show, Meet The 
      Depressed, and the guy standing on the ledge over there . . .
      <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
      style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
        ----- Original Message ----- 
        <DIV 
        style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From: 
        Mr. Kevin 
        Bantz 
        To: <A 
        title=SPX_Swing_Trading@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
        href="mailto:SPX_Swing_Trading@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>SPX_Swing_Trading@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
        
        Sent: Friday, July 19, 2002 9:24 
        PM
        Subject: [MedianLine] Log 
        Chart:Quarterly SP500
        Putting things into perspective, it doesn't look so 
        bad... 
         
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