|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Adrian,
There is little doubt that your post [in response to Clyde's gif] has
a great deal of validity. The fact of the matter is the people giving
this "unsound advice" are trying to avoid a run on the stock market
[further cashing out]similar to a run on the banks.
That is not to say the advice is to be condoned but hopefully
understood. They are basically trying to buy time.
Greenspan to Buffet know this and hence their All American promo....
One veiled and one overt.
My compliments to you.
John
------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
Originally From: "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: RE: [MedianLine] Log Chart:Quarterly SP500
Date: 07/20/2002 03:10pm
Clyde,
Whats scary, is that people would even postulate such unsound advice.
It seems the
level of complacency in this market is amazingly resilient.
Economists,
strategists and
now some technical people are all largely suggesting the market is
undervalued (although they
say the US is still overvalued relative to others). Is everyone
missing
what is happening
here? People's sacred capital is at risk and its suggested we should
buy more? It seems
so few understand the concept of risk..it staggers me beyond belief.
The lack of understanding
is at every level in the hierarchy. It seems every still wants to
pick
the low...doesn't that tell
you something? I read the online stuff and al the papers this
weekend..and its all the same.
Markets should be higher in a years time..as the economy is growing
and
where undervalued.
OH MY GOD!! Anyone who follows this line of thinking is done for.
Very
few people in my
observation truly understand what is happening right now. Of course
the
economists literally
have no idea. They say the market 'should' be going up because the
'recession' has already
ended...LOL...
Now make it clear...I'm not a doom and gloomer...I'm a realist. But
in
all my years I have never
been more scared about what lies ahead...and you should be too. That
means capital preservation
is RULE NO 1. The market is shouting loud and clear that all is not
well....forget the fact the US
economy is still growing. This decline is NOT just a P/E contraction
phase, although that is a
large whack of it. It will be many months before you see economic
numbers appear to validate whats
happening in the market. Do you want to wait for that when it can
drop
5% in a night?
It not hard to deal with. If the market is going down it will make
lower lows and lower highs. If its
going up it will make higher highs and higher lows...simple. Remember
what Gann said...no low
is too low to sell...no matter how low it may seem. People have
become
accustomed to absurd
valuations....this is changing. It will hurt many
people....especially
those who can't except reality
or those that suggest you should buy even more shares when your
already
losing money?????
Adrian Pitt
-----Original Message-----
From: Clyde Lee [mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Saturday, 20 July 2002 2:24 PM
To: MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Cc: Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx; Swingmachine
Subject: Re: [MedianLine] Log Chart:Quarterly SP500
First, I apologize to those of you who are members of more than one of
the
three lists that I am posting this to.
This post is to try to put some real perspective of this "bear" to all
prior
bears since (but not including) the 1929 fiasco.
As you will see, we are in a zone where it is really hard to estimate
whether
investor confidence will recover enough to turn around very soon or if
we
are to be drug down to some of the further depths to which the market
has been subjected in prior years.
Later this weekend I will modify the SM program and only record down
moves
that have lasted 4 to 8 months and post them on a chart similar to
this
so we
can have some more ideas of what may happen very soon.
The interesting thing is that even if we are not at the bottom, two
years from
now we can expect to be somewhere in the range of 9,500 to 15,000.
If the latter figure is true (and a bunch of projections point in that
direction)
then we could have an increase to 200 % of present value of a
portfolio
if
we just bought the DOW stocks.
Kinda scary/amazing is it not ? ? ? ?
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
----- Original Message -----
From: John <mailto:jjw@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> Wintels
To: MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, July 19, 2002 8:58 PM
Subject: Re: [MedianLine] Log Chart:Quarterly SP500
Thank you for finally saying it! Please forward to O'Reilly, Imus,
Peter Jennings, The Today Show, Meet The Depressed, and the guy
standing
on the ledge over there . . .
----- Original Message -----
From: Mr. Kevin <mailto:bantz@xxxxxxxxxxx> Bantz
To: SPX_Swing_Trading@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, July 19, 2002 9:24 PM
Subject: [MedianLine] Log Chart:Quarterly SP500
Putting things into perspective, it doesn't look so bad...
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
MedianLine-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service
<http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/> .
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
Access your PC just like Web Mail
http://us.click.yahoo.com/r5uw2C/zncEAA/Ey.GAA/zMEolB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|