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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
M.
Simms
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 3:52
PM
Subject: RE: [RT] John Murphy notes: the
market isn't "cheap"
See post regarding the 93% success rate.........I don't believe
it...Bulkowski can't code....thus he probably can't specify.....thus
thetechnique is probably unreliable.
A lame argument based on ignorance of
what Bulkowski did. LOL.> -----Original
Message-----> From: Daniel Goncharoff
[mailto:thegonch@xxxxxxxxxx]> Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 10:32
AM> To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: [RT] John Murphy notes: the market isn't
"cheap">>> Why would you be 'heavily' short? Wouldn't you
want to take a short> position in anticipation of the move, but not a
big one, since we agree> that it is often inconclusive, and at times
produces a reversal?>> Regards> DanG>> "M.
Simms" wrote:> >> > If that's the case, then you should be
heavily short....> > on anticipation of the neckline
"break".> >> > > -----Original Message----->
> > From: Adrian Pitt [mailto:apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]> > >
Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 5:37 AM> > > To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Subject: RE: [RT] John Murphy notes: the market isn't
"cheap"> > >> > >> > > You mean I can
trade a Head and Shoulder top for a small risk> and make a> >
> great gain on many occasions, 50% of the time? Your
right...sounds> > > pretty ordinary...i want something that works
90% and makes> 10/1 reward> > > to risk..
:-)> > >> > > Adrian> > >> >
> > -----Original Message-----> > > > From: M. Simms
[mailto:prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]> > > > Sent: Tuesday, 16 July
2002 7:10 AM> > > > To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Subject: RE: [RT] John Murphy notes: the market isn't
"cheap"> > > >> > > >> > > >
WARNING, WARNING....John is getting pretty old and so are his> >
> > techniques.....> > > >> > > >
backtesting Head and Shoulders patterns shows no better than> > >
> a 50% prediction of significant, tradeable bottom or top.> >
> > Many fantastic "reversal" rallies have emanated from the>
neckline....> > > >> > > > GOTTA DO YOUR
HOMEWORK, John....and less appearances !> > > > >
-----Original Message-----> > > > > From: Gary Funck
[mailto:gary@xxxxxxxxxxxx]> > > > > Sent: Sunday, July 14,
2002 8:02 PM> > > > > To: <A
href="mailto:Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx";>Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx. Com>
> > > > Subject: [RT] John Murphy notes: the market isn't
"cheap"> > > > >> > > > >> >
> > >> > > > >> > > > > <A
href="http://www.murphymorris.com/affiliate/market_watch.html";>http://www.murphymorris.com/affiliate/market_watch.html>
> > > >> > > > > John Murphy's Market
Watch> > > > >> > > > > by Mr. John
Murphy, President of MURPHYMORRIS.COM> > > > >> >
> > > Sat, July 13, 2002 - HEAD AND SHOULDERS TOP?> > >
> > WHAT IS IT?... Quoting from the Glossary in my book> >
> > Technical Analysis> > > > > of the Financial
Markets: "A head and shoulders top is the> > > > best
known> > > > > of the reversal> > > > >
patterns. At a market top, three prominent peaks are formed with> >
> > > the middle> > > > > peak (or head) slightly
higher than the other two peaks> > > > > (shoulders). When
the> > > > > trendline (neckline) connecting the two
intervening troughs> > > > is broken, the> > >
> > pattern is complete." While most major averages show a
similar> > > > > pattern, we're> > > > >
using the NYSE Composite Index for illustration purposes because> >
> > > we believe it> > > > > probably gives the
best overall measure of the state of the> > > > > "market".
There's> > > > > no question that the chart has the look of
a "head and shoulders"> > > > > top. The two> >
> > > "shoulders" were formed during 1998 and 2002. The "head"
formed> > > > > during 2000.> > > > >
The "neckline" is drawn under the 1998-2001 reaction lows.> > >
> As of Friday's> > > > > close, the neckline is already
been pierced on the downside, but> > > > > not by
much.> > > > > There are two other support levels that bear
watching. The> > > > first is the> > > > >
intra-day low hit last fall (which is at 494). The second (and> >
> > > more important)> > > > > is the late 1998
low at 463. Friday's close was only a> > > > shade below
last> > > > > September's low, but not by enough to call
this a clear breakdown> > > > > -- at least> >
> > > not yet. Regarding the breaking of the "neckline", there's also
a> > > > > 3% rule which> > > > > comes
into play at major chart points. That means that the> > > >
> neckline needs to be> > > > > broken by at least 3%
before we can call it a "major" breakdown.> > > > > We may
get> > > > > there (about 485), but we're not there yet.
Unless the market> > > > > attempts a rally> >
> > > soon, however, a breakdown could be imminent, which
could> > > > carry the market> > > > >
lower into the September/October period.> > > > >
[...]> > > > > THE MARKET ISN'T CHEAP... The purpose of
looking at the long-term> > > > > charts isn't> >
> > > to scare anyone. Our main goal is to show that this
market> > > > isn't cheap. In> > > > >
fact, it's still historically very high. We've expressed the view> >
> > > several times> > > > > before that we
believe the twenty-year bull cycle has ended. That> > > > >
means the> > > > > current bear market could last longer --
and fall much further --> > > > > than most> >
> > > people realize. We don't know how low it can go. It's
the> > > > direction that> > > > > matters
most -- not the actual numbers. The "head and shoulders"> > >
> > tops shown in> > > > > the preceding charts is
another warning that things could> > > > still get a
lot> > > > > worse. As the message is finally getting
across to the public> > > > > that this bear> >
> > > market is indeed different from those in the recent
past,> > > > mutual fund> > > > >
redemptions are starting. Imagine what could happen when the> > >
> > public finally> > > > > decides to start
selling.> > > > >> > > > >> >
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