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See post regarding the 93% success rate.........
I don't believe it...
Bulkowski can't code....thus he probably can't specify.....thus the
technique is probably unreliable.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Daniel Goncharoff [mailto:thegonch@xxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 10:32 AM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: [RT] John Murphy notes: the market isn't "cheap"
>
>
> Why would you be 'heavily' short? Wouldn't you want to take a short
> position in anticipation of the move, but not a big one, since we agree
> that it is often inconclusive, and at times produces a reversal?
>
> Regards
> DanG
>
> "M. Simms" wrote:
> >
> > If that's the case, then you should be heavily short....
> > on anticipation of the neckline "break".
> >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: Adrian Pitt [mailto:apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > > Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 5:37 AM
> > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: RE: [RT] John Murphy notes: the market isn't "cheap"
> > >
> > >
> > > You mean I can trade a Head and Shoulder top for a small risk
> and make a
> > > great gain on many occasions, 50% of the time? Your right...sounds
> > > pretty ordinary...i want something that works 90% and makes
> 10/1 reward
> > > to risk.. :-)
> > >
> > > Adrian
> > >
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: M. Simms [mailto:prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > > > Sent: Tuesday, 16 July 2002 7:10 AM
> > > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > Subject: RE: [RT] John Murphy notes: the market isn't "cheap"
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > WARNING, WARNING....John is getting pretty old and so are his
> > > > techniques.....
> > > >
> > > > backtesting Head and Shoulders patterns shows no better than
> > > > a 50% prediction of significant, tradeable bottom or top.
> > > > Many fantastic "reversal" rallies have emanated from the
> neckline....
> > > >
> > > > GOTTA DO YOUR HOMEWORK, John....and less appearances !
> > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > From: Gary Funck [mailto:gary@xxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > > > > Sent: Sunday, July 14, 2002 8:02 PM
> > > > > To: Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx Com
> > > > > Subject: [RT] John Murphy notes: the market isn't "cheap"
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > http://www.murphymorris.com/affiliate/market_watch.html
> > > > >
> > > > > John Murphy's Market Watch
> > > > >
> > > > > by Mr. John Murphy, President of MURPHYMORRIS.COM
> > > > >
> > > > > Sat, July 13, 2002 - HEAD AND SHOULDERS TOP?
> > > > > WHAT IS IT?... Quoting from the Glossary in my book
> > > > Technical Analysis
> > > > > of the Financial Markets: "A head and shoulders top is the
> > > > best known
> > > > > of the reversal
> > > > > patterns. At a market top, three prominent peaks are formed with
> > > > > the middle
> > > > > peak (or head) slightly higher than the other two peaks
> > > > > (shoulders). When the
> > > > > trendline (neckline) connecting the two intervening troughs
> > > > is broken, the
> > > > > pattern is complete." While most major averages show a similar
> > > > > pattern, we're
> > > > > using the NYSE Composite Index for illustration purposes because
> > > > > we believe it
> > > > > probably gives the best overall measure of the state of the
> > > > > "market". There's
> > > > > no question that the chart has the look of a "head and shoulders"
> > > > > top. The two
> > > > > "shoulders" were formed during 1998 and 2002. The "head" formed
> > > > > during 2000.
> > > > > The "neckline" is drawn under the 1998-2001 reaction lows.
> > > > As of Friday's
> > > > > close, the neckline is already been pierced on the downside, but
> > > > > not by much.
> > > > > There are two other support levels that bear watching. The
> > > > first is the
> > > > > intra-day low hit last fall (which is at 494). The second (and
> > > > > more important)
> > > > > is the late 1998 low at 463. Friday's close was only a
> > > > shade below last
> > > > > September's low, but not by enough to call this a clear breakdown
> > > > > -- at least
> > > > > not yet. Regarding the breaking of the "neckline", there's also a
> > > > > 3% rule which
> > > > > comes into play at major chart points. That means that the
> > > > > neckline needs to be
> > > > > broken by at least 3% before we can call it a "major" breakdown.
> > > > > We may get
> > > > > there (about 485), but we're not there yet. Unless the market
> > > > > attempts a rally
> > > > > soon, however, a breakdown could be imminent, which could
> > > > carry the market
> > > > > lower into the September/October period.
> > > > > [...]
> > > > > THE MARKET ISN'T CHEAP... The purpose of looking at the long-term
> > > > > charts isn't
> > > > > to scare anyone. Our main goal is to show that this market
> > > > isn't cheap. In
> > > > > fact, it's still historically very high. We've expressed the view
> > > > > several times
> > > > > before that we believe the twenty-year bull cycle has ended. That
> > > > > means the
> > > > > current bear market could last longer -- and fall much further --
> > > > > than most
> > > > > people realize. We don't know how low it can go. It's the
> > > > direction that
> > > > > matters most -- not the actual numbers. The "head and shoulders"
> > > > > tops shown in
> > > > > the preceding charts is another warning that things could
> > > > still get a lot
> > > > > worse. As the message is finally getting across to the public
> > > > > that this bear
> > > > > market is indeed different from those in the recent past,
> > > > mutual fund
> > > > > redemptions are starting. Imagine what could happen when the
> > > > > public finally
> > > > > decides to start selling.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
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> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
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