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Its
the opinion of a long term trader...a person with real market experience..and I
agree with
you
entirely Ira. Markets are chaotic..and that must be taken into consideration as
much
as
possible.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
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<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Adrian
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<FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Ira Tunik
[mailto:irat@xxxxxxxxx] Sent: Wednesday, 17 July 2002 12:56
AMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT] Hurst
Long Term CyclesFirst let me say that I believe in cycles
and in Hurst's work. I use it in my work. The thing that bothers
me about what you are doing is that you are trying to take years and years of
data and come up with a norm. I haven't read Hurst in years, but I do
remember that he stated, and I agree, that cycles are variable. His 28 week
cycle was plus or minus. So after the first cycle, the second cycle can
be longer or shorter then first by a bar or two. If that is the case
then over a period of time, if you don't change the starting point of the
cycle, you will be all out of whack. Using very sophisticated
mathematics will not change that fact or give you a highly dependable
result. At least it hasn't for me, but then again, I am not a math
whiz. I have found, as an example, that a 10 bar cycle can have 8 bars
for two or three cycles and go to 10 and then 12 bars and come back down to 9
etc. If you start at the beginning of the first 8 bar measurement with ,
by the time you get to the end everything is out of sync. This is the
opinion of one low math achiever. Ira.
Clyde Lee wrote:
In Hurst's epic discussion of market timing
he made a study of thecyclic
elements in the market (DJIA I think). To
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