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What about the ageing population? In my mind this is what is going to keep
the stock market down for years.
Bonds , Annuity income and low risk returns will be king. Risk aversion and
wealth protection are the key, not
wealth creation , particularly when we talk about the masses.
Infernal Elk wrote:
7004-Mon08Jul2002234926-0400-infernalelk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx">
john, if you look at the major averages since march 2000, you mightsay that we've ALREADY been in a bear market for at least 2 years. sothe low end of the duration you cite (9 months) is already out of thequestion.apart from reciting a bunch of statistics, what are you saying here?what "odds" are you referring to? what period(s) are you comparingagainst? - *lk
I can not comment on the DJIA forecast but I do know this:
6/3/92 to 6/3/02
DJIA went from 3,406.99 to 9,709.79 or up 185% annualized at 11.04%
Nas went from 589.93 to 1,562.56 or up 164.8% annualized at 10.23%
S&P 500 went from 414.59 to 1040.68 or up 151.01% annualized at 9.64%
Wilshire 500 went from 4,024.34 to 9,865.09 or up 145.14% annualized at 9.38%
Inflation [CPI] went from 140.20 to 179.80 or up 28.25% annualized at 2.52%
It is entirely within some realm of possibility that the worst case scenario on the DJIA may play out but one must look at the odds. From studies I recall major bear markets can last up to 17 years and we have not had too many of those. Most recent bear markets have been of shorter duration as low as 9 months to 3 years.
When pessimism is that great it is an extreme. There are 3 things I have learned that I think apply here.
1. Do not fight the Fed
2. Do not fight the trend
3. Beware the crowd at extremes.
I give credit to Wachovia for the bulk of this info.
Sincerely,
John
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