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> >>> 1. Do not fight the Fed
All the monetary aggregates are significantly lower since Dec 2001.
> >>>
> >
> >>> 2. Do not fight the trend
The trend is clearly down for the past 2 and a half years. In fact
the SPX and NDX haven't been this low since 1997. That's half of the
10 year pespective.
> >>>
> >
> >>> 3. Beware the crowd at extremes.
Everyone is still looking to buy. Although the VIX spiked a bit, the
put/calls really haven't done much. Are any of the high profile
gurus (Biggs, AJCohen, Galvin, Stack, Harding, etc) bearish here?
Nope.
--- In realtraders@xxxx, sue crew <screwy@xxxx> wrote:
> What about the ageing population? In my mind this is what is going
to
> keep the stock market down for years.
> Bonds , Annuity income and low risk returns will be king. Risk
aversion
> and wealth protection are the key, not
> wealth creation , particularly when we talk about the masses.
>
> Infernal Elk wrote:
>
> >john, if you look at the major averages since march 2000, you might
> >say that we've ALREADY been in a bear market for at least 2
years. so
> >the low end of the duration you cite (9 months) is already out of
the
> >question.
> >
> >apart from reciting a bunch of statistics, what are you saying
here?
> >what "odds" are you referring to? what period(s) are you comparing
> >against?
> >
> >- *lk
> >
> >
> >>> I can not comment on the DJIA forecast but I do know this:
> >>>
> >
> >>> 6/3/92 to 6/3/02
> >>>
> >
> >>> DJIA went from 3,406.99 to 9,709.79 or up 185% annualized at
11.04%
> >>>
> >
> >>> Nas went from 589.93 to 1,562.56 or up 164.8% annualized at
10.23%
> >>>
> >
> >>> S&P 500 went from 414.59 to 1040.68 or up 151.01% annualized at
9.64%
> >>>
> >
> >>> Wilshire 500 went from 4,024.34 to 9,865.09 or up 145.14%
annualized
> >>> at 9.38%
> >>>
> >
> >>> Inflation [CPI] went from 140.20 to 179.80 or up 28.25%
annualized at
> >>> 2.52%
> >>>
> >
> >>> It is entirely within some realm of possibility that the worst
case
> >>> scenario on the DJIA may play out but one must look at the
odds. From
> >>> studies I recall major bear markets can last up to 17 years and
we
> >>> have not had too many of those. Most recent bear markets have
been of
> >>> shorter duration as low as 9 months to 3 years.
> >>>
> >
> >>> When pessimism is that great it is an extreme. There are 3
things I
> >>> have learned that I think apply here.
> >>>
> >
> >>> 1. Do not fight the Fed
> >>>
> >
> >>> 2. Do not fight the trend
> >>>
> >
> >>> 3. Beware the crowd at extremes.
> >>>
> >
> >>> I give credit to Wachovia for the bulk of this info.
> >>>
> >
> >>> Sincerely,
> >>>
> >
> >>> John
> >>>
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> >realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> >
> >
> >
> >Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
> >
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