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john, if you look at the major averages since march 2000, you might
say that we've ALREADY been in a bear market for at least 2 years. so
the low end of the duration you cite (9 months) is already out of the
question.
apart from reciting a bunch of statistics, what are you saying here?
what "odds" are you referring to? what period(s) are you comparing
against?
- *lk
>> I can not comment on the DJIA forecast but I do know this:
>> 6/3/92 to 6/3/02
>> DJIA went from 3,406.99 to 9,709.79 or up 185% annualized at 11.04%
>> Nas went from 589.93 to 1,562.56 or up 164.8% annualized at 10.23%
>> S&P 500 went from 414.59 to 1040.68 or up 151.01% annualized at 9.64%
>> Wilshire 500 went from 4,024.34 to 9,865.09 or up 145.14% annualized
>> at 9.38%
>> Inflation [CPI] went from 140.20 to 179.80 or up 28.25% annualized at
>> 2.52%
>> It is entirely within some realm of possibility that the worst case
>> scenario on the DJIA may play out but one must look at the odds. From
>> studies I recall major bear markets can last up to 17 years and we
>> have not had too many of those. Most recent bear markets have been of
>> shorter duration as low as 9 months to 3 years.
>> When pessimism is that great it is an extreme. There are 3 things I
>> have learned that I think apply here.
>> 1. Do not fight the Fed
>> 2. Do not fight the trend
>> 3. Beware the crowd at extremes.
>> I give credit to Wachovia for the bulk of this info.
>> Sincerely,
>> John
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