|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
My outlook for the next 10 years is like 1973 to 1983
Dow went from 800 to 1000
back to 800 and again up to 1000
5 round trips
but unless you time it right you will break even!!!
no way to catch a 30-90% loss on an IRA or 401k
timing IS going to be EXTREMELY important in the next 10 years
Ben
----- Original Message -----
From: "John Cappello" <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: <MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, July 08, 2002 11:36 PM
Subject: [RT] 10 Year Stock Market Perspective
>
> I can not comment on the DJIA forecast but I do know this:
>
> 6/3/92 to 6/3/02
>
> DJIA went from 3,406.99 to 9,709.79 or up 185% annualized at 11.04%
>
> Nas went from 589.93 to 1,562.56 or up 164.8% annualized at 10.23%
>
> S&P 500 went from 414.59 to 1040.68 or up 151.01% annualized at 9.64%
>
> Wilshire 500 went from 4,024.34 to 9,865.09 or up 145.14% annualized
> at 9.38%
>
> Inflation [CPI] went from 140.20 to 179.80 or up 28.25% annualized at
> 2.52%
>
> It is entirely within some realm of possibility that the worst case
> scenario on the DJIA may play out but one must look at the odds. From
> studies I recall major bear markets can last up to 17 years and we
> have not had too many of those. Most recent bear markets have been of
> shorter duration as low as 9 months to 3 years.
>
> When pessimism is that great it is an extreme. There are 3 things I
> have learned that I think apply here.
>
> 1. Do not fight the Fed
>
> 2. Do not fight the trend
>
> 3. Beware the crowd at extremes.
>
> I give credit to Wachovia for the bulk of this info.
>
> Sincerely,
>
> John
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
Free $5 Love Reading
Risk Free!
http://us.click.yahoo.com/TPvn8A/PfREAA/Ey.GAA/zMEolB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|