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<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Wavemechanic,
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
I
never used the argument that more rules made it better. I was simply
replying to a comment
made
by Bill. I simply said that having more guidelines helps reduce much of
the randomness
of the
EWT. Now in addition to that and in reply to the comments you made, there
is no doubt
in my
mind from applying this stuff for over 10 years everyday that it is
superior in terms of
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>forecasting the ends of moves and the direction and degree of future
moves. It is superior by a
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>quantum amount...I base this on several factors. One....virtually every
published wave count I
have
seen on our market is made by people who know Prechters work to a fair or
extensive
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>degree, and yet their forecasts are woeful, and they have the need to
constantly relabel their
wave
counts. In my case it is extremely rare for me to ever change a wave
count. Yes it happens,
and
I'll happily do it if the market tells me if I'm wrong. My wave counts
have often and usually are
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>radically different to most out there. I feel being able to
keep the same wave count on a chart
for an
extended period of time..often without ever changing in most cases, that it
validates somewhat
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Neely's work. Of course, the wave counts don't change because the
markets are following the road
map
predetermine by whatever label you might have on the chart at the
time.
A look
at the S&P/ASX200 Index since 1994 will find it has been one enormous mess
of a chart, but
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>amazingly, even to myself, with day by day analysis, I have worked
through it with incredible reliability.
I
think though my accuracy is
also partly due to the great understanding I have for our market
simply
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>because I have been following it for so long. That sort of thing is hard
to quantify but is definitely a
factor
in helping me choose wave count alternatives. Its the difference between
analysing the market
from a
totally academic point of view as distinct from the realist/trader point of
view. There is the world
of
difference.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Adrian
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>-----Original Message-----From: wavemechanic
[mailto:wd78@xxxxxxxxxxxx] Sent: Thursday, 11 July 2002 11:42
PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT] Re:
forecasting-track record
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Adrian
Pitt
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002 9:21
AM
Subject: RE: [RT] Re: forecasting-track
record
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>Bill,
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
Thanks for
some intelligent conversations for a change :-) I do disagree with you
though..and I'm not talking from a theoretical viewpoint. I've been
applying his techniques on the local market here in Australia..and to be
honest. I've never seen any public material from others here in this country
to remotely come close to the accuracy that Neely has enabled me to
reach.
<FONT color=#800000
size=2>That's good, but does not necessarily mean that Neely is in
general better, only that NeoWave works better for you, reflecting I am sure
your total approach to TA. Absent an objective evaluation of the
different techniques, all that we know that all of them work sometimes and
fail sometimes. Choose your poison.
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
This
is well over 10 years of REAL TIME wave counting with all material
published publicly for free on the net BEFORE the event. Now I'm
no guru...and Neely's work isn't black and white, and isn't the be all and
end all...I've never claimed it to be. But it DEFINITELY is an
accurate extension of Elliott's original work...it is NOT a different animal
at all. ALL of Elliott's rigid guidelines still remain...few as they
are. That is the problem...there are so few that people can pretty
much put any count on a chart they like.
Neely has
made wave counting MORE rigid...not totally rigid..there is still much
grey. And of course Neely tries to lock things in concrete!!
What use is a method if there isn't something concrete to it? How many
people on this list can differentiate between a wave 'b' in a flat or
zig-zag? Or decide if it might be an X wave? I can do it easily
and accurately almost every time. It enables me to reduce the number
of wave count alternatives by a quantum leap. I used to believe X
waves where a crock.....now I see they are not..and make perfect sense both
logically and reality wise. 4th waves can and do overlap wave 1's...and
there isn't anything wrong with that....it immediately tells you it is a
certain kind of 5 wave pattern..nothing complicated..just technical.
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
Make no
mistake..Miner's approach is no different to Prechter's and any other
Elliott book out there...ALL of them are exactly the same..simply because
they make little attempt to take Elliott's work to the next level.
Neely is the only one I know who has attempted and succeeded....well for me
anyway....and I only do wave counts on the local equity index..nothing
else. Its my speciality..and has been for over 20
years.
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT color=#800000
size=2>Miner does not advocate use of X waves and does not have
a heart attack if 4 overlaps 1, etc. In short, Miner argues that
Elliott does not contain inviolate rules, but he does say to be
consistent. So in this regard he is not Prechter, etc. Neely has
attempted to put more rules into Elliott, which is fine, but that
does not prove that it is superior.
How you
convert all this information into trading signals though is another matter
entirely and not part of this discussion.
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>Adrian
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>-----Original Message-----From: wavemechanic
[mailto:wd78@xxxxxxxxxxxx] Sent: Thursday, 11 July 2002 11:00
PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT]
Re: forecasting-track record
Adrian:
The picture is not so black and white.
Neely has attempted to make EW more rigid by adding rules to each
pattern. In doing so, some argue that he has left EW and that
NeoWave is a different animal. Neely's rules lock things into
"concrete," which is its main problem. Markets are not locked but
reflect changing opinions. Miner's approach is based on Elliott
where X waves, 4 overlapping 1, etc. did not exist. In between there
is the "traditional" a la Prechter. I don't think any can be
discarded in the
of evidence that it is inferior to the others. As with most TA, it
comes down to a matter of personal choice, reflecting how one incorporates
the analysis into a trading "system" and its affect on signal
quality.
Bill
----- Original Message -----
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Adrian
Pitt
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002 5:18
AM
Subject: RE: [RT] Re:
forecasting-track record
Earl,Miners work is good, but his EW is fairly
simplistic, but he doesput it into a form that can be used by
traders. If anyone truly wantsto understand markets better and
apply Elliott Wave in a far more accurate and scientific way there
is ONLY ONE SOURCE of goodinformation.and that's Glen Neely's
book. I STRONGLY WARN readers though not tobotherWith it
unless EWT really takes your interest. It's a big book
andEVERY PAGEhas critical information on it, so lots of learning
and practicing. Butitworks, impeccably. Its not a book
about trading though, only accuratewavereading.
Adrian> -----Original Message-----> From: Earl
Adamy [mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx] > Sent: Thursday, 11 July 2002
1:46 AM> To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: forecasting-track record> > >
I think you make two valid points: know how to do the counts >
yourself and be able to control/apply your own counts when > you
don't like the automated counts. I highly recommend the >
simplified EW approach used by Robert Miner in his Dynamic >
Trader book ($100 with full money back guarantee at> <A
href="http://www.dynamictraders.com";>www.dynamictraders.com) ... I
don't use the DT3 software. I'm > not familiar with EW3 (I did
have WinWaves and didn't care > for it), however AGet which I
use, allows one to control > counts to a limited degree (short
term, aggressive, regular, > long term, plus localize) ... as a
last resort I just turn > the EW counts off and apply my own
labels.> > Earl> > ----- Original Message
-----> From: "wavemechanic" <<A
href="mailto:wd78@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>wd78@xxxxxxxxxxxx>> To:
<<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
Sent: Wednesday, July 10, 2002 9:28 AM> Subject: Re: [RT] Re:
forecasting-track record> > > >
----- Original Message -----> From: Karen
Beckwith> To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, July 10, 2002 10:16 AM> Subject: Re:
[RT] Re: forecasting-track record> > >
Jeff:> Looking for a holy grail? Have u ever
looked into the EW3 > (Elliott Wave)>
software? I can't find anyone who uses it, but it sounds >
awfully good.> Anyone here familiar w/ EW3?>
> I have not used EWII but did use the previous
version > WinWaves, and EWII is supposed to have a better
analysis > engine. However, a couple of thoughts.
What is the correct > count? There are many counts and in
the last analysis the > only one that is right is yours. So
being able to do your > own count is important, and the software
is a tool to > increase your efficiency and, perhaps, help you
over the > rough spots. Having said that, one important
feature that I > would be sure to have is the ability to input my
count and > see how it plays. Most EW programs do not have
this option, > but if I recall correctly ELWave does.
FWIW.> > best wishes,>
karen> ps - May the force be with
you.> :>)> :>)>
> ----- Original Message ----->
From: "jeff97_98_1998" <<A
href="mailto:jprroth@xxxxxxxxxxx";>jprroth@xxxxxxxxxxx>>
To: <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
Sent: Sunday, July 07, 2002 9:50 AM> Subject: [RT]
Re: forecasting-track record> > >
>> > "If one tries to fight these forces they
will be destroyed. If one> > can unite and
redirect these forces to> > ones advantage, one
should be able to progress quite swiftly.">
>> >> > Sounds like a
re-run of Kung Fu.> > Grasshopper, my son, be of
unity with the universe.> > Now catch this fly in
my soup.> >> > Please
enlighten me, how does one unite and redirect > these forces
to> > ones advantage?>
>> > How do I redirect a drought in the
midwest, terrorist > attack crashing> > the
S & P , lumber import regulations vs. canadian
exports?> >> > Fundamentals,
schmundamentals, blah, blah.>
>> > I have the force, the unity, the
polarity...> >> > Beam me up
Scotty, for I have discovered how markets> >
work, yet I waste my time trolling for fish.>
> Why is that?> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> > --- In <A
href="mailto:realtraders@x";>realtraders@x..., "Norman Winski" <<A
href="mailto:nwinski@x";>nwinski@x...> wrote:>
> > Reinar,> > >> >
> From one sailor to another, when one's sailboat hits
> a sand bar,> > that's>
> > called running a ground and that's not a good
thing.> > >> > >
I know it's time for me to take a vacation. Your > sailing
metaphor> > is> > >
starting to make sense to me.<G> Seriously, I agree >
that sailing> > is a good> >
> analogy for trading, but not for the reasons you have stated.
I> > think> > > sailing
is a good analogy for trading because in order to be>
> successful, one> > > must join with the
huge natural forces at work. If one tries to>
> fight these> > > forces they will be
destroyed. If one can unite and > redirect
these> > forces to> > >
ones advantage, one should be able to progress quite
swiftly.> > >> >
> Gann fans - the ideal position to attain maximum speed
> is to have> > the
sail> > > at a 45 degree angle to the
wind.> > >> > >
Nautically,> > >> > >
Norman> > >> >
>> > >> > > -----
Original Message -----> > > From: "reinar2020"
<<A
href="mailto:reinar2020@x";>reinar2020@x...>>
> > To: <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@x";>realtraders@x...>>
> > Sent: Sunday, July 07, 2002 12:33 AM> >
> Subject: Re: [RT] forecasting-track record> >
>> > >> > > >
Elk> > > >> > >
> Not only will I continue to use sailing as a metaphor > but
I will> > > > expand the use. There are
several reasons. Selling to "the> >
traders"> > > > market is too limiting and
more imortant.... If you can think> > like
a> > > > sailor you can think like a
profitable trader......> > >
>> > > >> > >
> If you have ever been sailing you would know that it > is
kind of a> > > > zen like experience where
you have a very specific > focus. All the>
> BS> > > > that is provided by the media
etc is gone.> > > >> >
> > There are other advantages. Any monkey can draw an >
Andrews line> > and> > >
> if you read his totally incomplete "free" 60 page > lit....
at any> > > > time there are at least 20 or
so that come in > tomorrow. So which> >
> > ones do you use? Rather than take the standard >
approach of here> > are> >
> > the lines .....let get overwhelmed with stuff that is >
useless.....> > > >> >
> > I will focus upon about 3 kinds of sand bars and a
marker.> > > > I did something similar in
Vienna seminars and the > sucess rate of> >
> > the students over a long time period was very
high.> > > >> > >
> Focus upon the chicken ( the end result.. you really > want
) not on> > > > the
eggs.> > > >> > >
> We look for 4 things...> > >
>> > > > 1) sand bars (support and
resistance lines) where > prices stop for>
> a> > > > bar or 2 and then go
through> > > >> > >
> 2) sand bars where prices go through and then go back to it
to> > touch> > > > it
before continuing in the proper direction> > >
>> > > > (the above are very handy for
adding on positions or > getting in> >
with> > > > definable risk....the other side
of the sand bar line)> > >
>> > > > 3) and finally sand bars that
are likely to produce a > tradeable> > >
> pivot ....like i pointed out on thursday in an email > I
sent out.> > > >> >
> > 4) and then how to find markers (probable future pivot
points)> > > >> > >
> Now instead of learning how to draw all of those > silly
lines you> > > > learned how to draw lines
that produced the above > .......wouldn't>
> > > Andrews really work .....and very easily at
that?> > > >> > >
> Oh by the way did you ever learn what the Andrews > "ROS"
line was?> > > > Hint....its a sand
bar.> > > >> > >
>> > > > Regards> >
> > R> > > >> >
> >> > > >> >
> > --- In realtraders@x...,
Infernal Elk > <<A
href="mailto:infernalelk@x";>infernalelk@x...>
wrote:> > > > >> >
> > > >> John either you are blind or you faded the
forecast.> > > > > >> ...or
does north mean go short to you?> > > >
>> > > > > >>
R> > > > >> > >
> > maybe if you spoke in market terms rather than >
cryptic pseudo-> > > >
poetic> > > > > "nautical" terms, people
would understand you.> > > >
>> > > > > if your desire is to
communicate, then do so > CLEARLY. if
your> > > > desire> >
> > > is to tease and to draw people in to buy your >
product you'll do> > > >
better> > > > > to speak clearly as
well.> > > > >> >
> > > we're not sailors. we're
traders.> > > > >>
> > > > - *lk> > >
>> > > >> > >
>> > > > To unsubscribe from this group,
send an email to:> > > > <A
href="mailto:realtraders-unsubscribe@x";>realtraders-unsubscribe@x...>
> > >> > > >>
> > >> > > > Your use of Yahoo!
Groups is subject to> > <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>
> > >> > > >>
>> >>
>> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an
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>> >>
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