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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Adrian Pitt
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002 10:02
AM
Subject: RE: [RT] Re: forecasting-track
record
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>Wavemechanic,
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
I never used
the argument that more rules made it better. I was simply replying to a
comment
made by
Bill. I simply said that having more guidelines helps reduce much of the
randomness
of the
EWT. Now in addition to that and in reply to the comments you made,
there is no doubt
in my mind from
applying this stuff for over 10 years everyday that it is superior in
terms of
forecasting the
ends of moves and the direction and degree of future moves. It is
superior by a
quantum
amount...I base this on several factors. One....virtually every published wave
count I
have seen on
our market is made by people who know Prechters work to a fair or
extensive
degree, and yet
their forecasts are woeful, and they have the need to constantly relabel
their
wave
counts. In my case it is extremely rare for me to ever change a
wave count. Yes it happens,
and I'll
happily do it if the market tells me if I'm wrong. My wave counts have
often and usually are
radically
different to most out there. I feel being able to keep the same
wave count on a chart
for an extended
period of time..often without ever changing in most cases, that it
validates somewhat
Neely's
work. Of course, the wave counts don't change because the markets are
following the road
map
predetermine by whatever label you might have on the chart at the
time.
A look at the
S&P/ASX200 Index since 1994 will find it has been one enormous mess of a
chart, but
amazingly, even
to myself, with day by day analysis, I have worked through it with incredible
reliability.
I think
though my accuracy is also partly due
to the great understanding I have for our market simply
because I have
been following it for so long. That sort of thing is hard to quantify but is
definitely a
factor in
helping me choose wave count alternatives. Its the difference between
analysing the market
from a totally
academic point of view as distinct from the realist/trader point of
view. There is the world
of
difference.
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT color=#800000
size=2>Everything you say simply shows that NeoWave works for you and
that is good. It does not demonstrate that NeoWave is better or worse
than other EW techniques.
<FONT color=#800000
size=2>
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>Adrian
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<FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>-----Original Message-----From: wavemechanic
[mailto:wd78@xxxxxxxxxxxx] Sent: Thursday, 11 July 2002 11:42
PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT] Re:
forecasting-track record
<BLOCKQUOTE
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Adrian
Pitt
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002 9:21
AM
Subject: RE: [RT] Re:
forecasting-track record
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>Bill,
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
Thanks for
some intelligent conversations for a change :-) I do disagree with
you though..and I'm not talking from a theoretical viewpoint. I've
been applying his techniques on the local market here in Australia..and to
be honest. I've never seen any public material from others here in this
country to remotely come close to the accuracy that Neely has enabled me
to reach.
<FONT color=#800000
size=2>That's good, but does not necessarily mean that Neely is in
general better, only that NeoWave works better for you, reflecting I am
sure your total approach to TA. Absent an objective evaluation of
the different techniques, all that we know that all of them work sometimes
and fail sometimes. Choose your poison.
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
This
is well over 10 years of REAL TIME wave counting with all material
published publicly for free on the net BEFORE the event. Now
I'm no guru...and Neely's work isn't black and white, and isn't the be all
and end all...I've never claimed it to be. But it DEFINITELY is an
accurate extension of Elliott's original work...it is NOT a different
animal at all. ALL of Elliott's rigid guidelines still remain...few
as they are. That is the problem...there are so few that people can
pretty much put any count on a chart they like.
Neely has
made wave counting MORE rigid...not totally rigid..there is still much
grey. And of course Neely tries to lock things in concrete!!
What use is a method if there isn't something concrete to it? How
many people on this list can differentiate between a wave 'b' in a flat or
zig-zag? Or decide if it might be an X wave? I can do it
easily and accurately almost every time. It enables me to reduce the
number of wave count alternatives by a quantum leap. I used to
believe X waves where a crock.....now I see they are not..and make perfect
sense both logically and reality wise. 4th waves can and do overlap wave
1's...and there isn't anything wrong with that....it immediately tells you
it is a certain kind of 5 wave pattern..nothing complicated..just
technical.
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
Make no
mistake..Miner's approach is no different to Prechter's and any other
Elliott book out there...ALL of them are exactly the same..simply because
they make little attempt to take Elliott's work to the next level.
Neely is the only one I know who has attempted and succeeded....well for
me anyway....and I only do wave counts on the local equity index..nothing
else. Its my speciality..and has been for over 20
years.
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT color=#800000
size=2>Miner does not advocate use of X waves and does not
have a heart attack if 4 overlaps 1, etc. In short, Miner argues
that Elliott does not contain inviolate rules, but he does say to be
consistent. So in this regard he is not Prechter, etc. Neely
has attempted to put more rules into Elliott, which is fine, but
that does not prove that it is
superior.
How you
convert all this information into trading signals though is another matter
entirely and not part of this discussion.
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>Adrian
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<FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>-----Original Message-----From:
wavemechanic [mailto:wd78@xxxxxxxxxxxx] Sent: Thursday, 11
July 2002 11:00 PMTo:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT] Re:
forecasting-track record
Adrian:
The picture is not so black and white.
Neely has attempted to make EW more rigid by adding rules to each
pattern. In doing so, some argue that he has left EW and that
NeoWave is a different animal. Neely's rules lock things into
"concrete," which is its main problem. Markets are not locked but
reflect changing opinions. Miner's approach is based on Elliott
where X waves, 4 overlapping 1, etc. did not exist. In between
there is the "traditional" a la Prechter. I don't think any can be
discarded in the
of evidence that it is inferior to the others. As with most TA, it
comes down to a matter of personal choice, reflecting how one
incorporates the analysis into a trading "system" and its affect on
signal quality.
Bill
----- Original Message -----
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<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Adrian
Pitt
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002
5:18 AM
Subject: RE: [RT] Re:
forecasting-track record
Earl,Miners work is good, but his EW is fairly
simplistic, but he doesput it into a form that can be used by
traders. If anyone truly wantsto understand markets better
and apply Elliott Wave in a far more accurate and scientific way
there is ONLY ONE SOURCE of goodinformation.and that's Glen
Neely's book. I STRONGLY WARN readers though not
tobotherWith it unless EWT really takes your interest.
It's a big book andEVERY PAGEhas critical information on it,
so lots of learning and practicing. Butitworks,
impeccably. Its not a book about trading though, only
accuratewavereading. Adrian>
-----Original Message-----> From: Earl Adamy
[mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx] > Sent: Thursday, 11 July 2002 1:46
AM> To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: forecasting-track record> >
> I think you make two valid points: know how to do the counts
> yourself and be able to control/apply your own counts when
> you don't like the automated counts. I highly recommend the
> simplified EW approach used by Robert Miner in his Dynamic
> Trader book ($100 with full money back guarantee at>
www.dynamictraders.com)
... I don't use the DT3 software. I'm > not familiar with EW3
(I did have WinWaves and didn't care > for it), however AGet
which I use, allows one to control > counts to a limited degree
(short term, aggressive, regular, > long term, plus localize)
... as a last resort I just turn > the EW counts off and apply
my own labels.> > Earl> > ----- Original
Message -----> From: "wavemechanic" <<A
href="mailto:wd78@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>wd78@xxxxxxxxxxxx>> To:
<<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
Sent: Wednesday, July 10, 2002 9:28 AM> Subject: Re: [RT] Re:
forecasting-track record> > >
> ----- Original Message ----->
From: Karen Beckwith> To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, July 10, 2002 10:16 AM> Subject:
Re: [RT] Re: forecasting-track record> >
> Jeff:> Looking for a holy
grail? Have u ever looked into the EW3 > (Elliott
Wave)> software? I can't find anyone who uses
it, but it sounds > awfully good.> Anyone
here familiar w/ EW3?> > I have not used
EWII but did use the previous version > WinWaves, and EWII is
supposed to have a better analysis > engine. However, a
couple of thoughts. What is the correct > count?
There are many counts and in the last analysis the > only one
that is right is yours. So being able to do your > own
count is important, and the software is a tool to > increase
your efficiency and, perhaps, help you over the > rough
spots. Having said that, one important feature that I >
would be sure to have is the ability to input my count and >
see how it plays. Most EW programs do not have this option,
> but if I recall correctly ELWave does. FWIW.>
> best wishes,>
karen> ps - May the force be with
you.> :>)> :>)>
> ----- Original Message ----->
From: "jeff97_98_1998" <<A
href="mailto:jprroth@xxxxxxxxxxx";>jprroth@xxxxxxxxxxx>>
To: <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
Sent: Sunday, July 07, 2002 9:50 AM> Subject: [RT]
Re: forecasting-track record> > >
>> > "If one tries to fight these forces they
will be destroyed. If one> > can unite and
redirect these forces to> > ones advantage, one
should be able to progress quite swiftly.">
>> >> > Sounds like a
re-run of Kung Fu.> > Grasshopper, my son, be of
unity with the universe.> > Now catch this fly
in my soup.> >> > Please
enlighten me, how does one unite and redirect > these forces
to> > ones advantage?>
>> > How do I redirect a drought in the
midwest, terrorist > attack crashing> >
the S & P , lumber import regulations vs. canadian
exports?> >> >
Fundamentals, schmundamentals, blah, blah.>
>> > I have the force, the unity, the
polarity...> >> > Beam me
up Scotty, for I have discovered how markets>
> work, yet I waste my time trolling for
fish.> > Why is that?>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> > --- In <A
href="mailto:realtraders@x";>realtraders@x..., "Norman Winski"
<nwinski@x...>
wrote:> > > Reinar,> >
>> > > From one sailor to
another, when one's sailboat hits > a sand
bar,> > that's> > >
called running a ground and that's not a good
thing.> > >> >
> I know it's time for me to take a vacation. Your >
sailing metaphor> > is> >
> starting to make sense to me.<G> Seriously, I agree
> that sailing> > is a
good> > > analogy for trading, but not for
the reasons you have stated. I> >
think> > > sailing is a good analogy for
trading because in order to be> > successful,
one> > > must join with the huge natural
forces at work. If one tries to> > fight
these> > > forces they will be destroyed. If
one can unite and > redirect these> >
forces to> > > ones advantage, one should be
able to progress quite swiftly.> >
>> > > Gann fans - the ideal
position to attain maximum speed > is to
have> > the sail> > >
at a 45 degree angle to the wind.> >
>> > > Nautically,>
> >> > > Norman>
> >> > >> >
>> > > ----- Original Message
-----> > > From: "reinar2020" <<A
href="mailto:reinar2020@x";>reinar2020@x...>>
> > To: <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@x";>realtraders@x...>>
> > Sent: Sunday, July 07, 2002 12:33 AM>
> > Subject: Re: [RT] forecasting-track
record> > >> >
>> > > > Elk> >
> >> > > > Not only will I continue
to use sailing as a metaphor > but I will>
> > > expand the use. There are several reasons. Selling to
"the> > traders"> > >
> market is too limiting and more imortant.... If you can
think> > like a> > >
> sailor you can think like a profitable
trader......> > > >>
> > >> > > > If you have ever
been sailing you would know that it > is kind of
a> > > > zen like experience where you
have a very specific > focus. All the> >
BS> > > > that is provided by the media
etc is gone.> > > >>
> > > There are other advantages. Any monkey can draw an
> Andrews line> > and>
> > > if you read his totally incomplete "free" 60 page
> lit.... at any> > > > time there
are at least 20 or so that come in > tomorrow. So
which> > > > ones do you use? Rather than
take the standard > approach of here> >
are> > > > the lines .....let get
overwhelmed with stuff that is >
useless.....> > > >>
> > > I will focus upon about 3 kinds of sand bars and a
marker.> > > > I did something similar in
Vienna seminars and the > sucess rate of>
> > > the students over a long time period was very
high.> > > >> > >
> Focus upon the chicken ( the end result.. you really >
want ) not on> > > > the
eggs.> > > >> > >
> We look for 4 things...> > >
>> > > > 1) sand bars (support and
resistance lines) where > prices stop for>
> a> > > > bar or 2 and then go
through> > > >> >
> > 2) sand bars where prices go through and then go back to it
to> > touch> > > >
it before continuing in the proper direction> >
> >> > > > (the above are very handy
for adding on positions or > getting in>
> with> > > > definable risk....the
other side of the sand bar line)> > >
>> > > > 3) and finally sand bars that
are likely to produce a > tradeable> >
> > pivot ....like i pointed out on thursday in an email
> I sent out.> > >
>> > > > 4) and then how to find
markers (probable future pivot points)> > >
>> > > > Now instead of learning how to
draw all of those > silly lines you> >
> > learned how to draw lines that produced the above >
.......wouldn't> > > > Andrews really work
.....and very easily at that?> > >
>> > > > Oh by the way did you ever
learn what the Andrews > "ROS" line was?>
> > > Hint....its a sand bar.> > >
>> > > >> > >
> Regards> > > > R>
> > >> > > >>
> > >> > > > --- In <A
href="mailto:realtraders@x";>realtraders@x..., Infernal Elk
> <infernalelk@x...>
wrote:> > > > >>
> > > > >> John either you are blind or you
faded the forecast.> > > > >
>> ...or does north mean go short to
you?> > > > >> >
> > > >> R> > > >
>> > > > > maybe if you spoke in
market terms rather than > cryptic pseudo->
> > > poetic> > > > >
"nautical" terms, people would understand you.>
> > > >> > > > > if your
desire is to communicate, then do so > CLEARLY. if
your> > > > desire>
> > > > is to tease and to draw people in to buy your
> product you'll do> > > >
better> > > > > to speak clearly as
well.> > > > >> >
> > > we're not sailors. we're
traders.> > > > >>
> > > > - *lk> > >
>> > > >> > >
>> > > > To unsubscribe from this
group, send an email to:> > > > <A
href="mailto:realtraders-unsubscribe@x";>realtraders-unsubscribe@x...>
> > >> > > >>
> > >> > > > Your use of Yahoo!
Groups is subject to> > <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>
> > >> > > >>
>> >>
>> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an
email to:> > <A
href="mailto:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >>
>> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> <A
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>> >> > >
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