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Tony,
You pretty well covered all the possibilities.
A bear market till 2014, yet it will be in a trading range,
rather than a trending bear market.
With ups and downs within the channel.
You sound to me, like a professional anaylst on
CNBC.
Kinda like hot in the summer, cold in the winter.
Temperatures for the next 12 years will tend to
move within the extremes, maybe follow the norm.
Hot some days, not so hot other days.
No chart required.
So with all this analysis and chart stuff,
how does this help me trade?
what should I do?
how does this knowledge give me the edge over the next
guy?
How do you make a 12 year projection?
thanks for the bantering.
PS. what will gold be an ounce in 2014?
how bout crude oil?
will there be a cure for cancer?
will Iraq exist with an american flag
over the capital?
will Hillary divorce Bill?
--- In realtraders@xxxx, "Tony Pylypuk" <tpylypuk@xxxx> wrote:
> Dear Jeff97_98_1998,
>
> I do not recommend anything. I only post what I observe from my
charts.
>
> If the 2.5 year bear is to continue for the projected time-frame
(to 2014), then absent an implosion of the World economy by reason of
a cataclysmic event, it would seem that we may be in for a trading
rather than trending market during that period, and the market may be
expected to continue to bounce between the extended upper and lower
bounds of the existing 2.5 year trend channel (as may redefined
upwards and downwards with the passage of time).
>
> Assuming that to be true, it would follow that shorter term traders
rather than longer term investors will come out on top for the
duration.
>
> I note that a year or so ago Warren Buffett was of the opinion that
the market would not resume its upward trend for several years (I
recollect he put the end of the bear at 2009 +/-).
>
> I try not to compromise my rudimentary technical understanding of
the market with my even less knowledgeable understanding of
fundamental analysis. Nevertheless, my understanding of the
fundamentals includes the following:
>
> Up here in Canada, the economy is roaring ahead, powered by export
sales which are enhanced by the relative value of the CDN$/US$. Down
below the 49th parallel in the USA, the economy seems to be
recovering almost as handsomely.
>
> The economic data in America (and to a significant degree in Canada
as well) has been driven mostly by consumer spending with the
consequent effect of new highs in consumer debt. At some point the
creditors of the consumers will demand repayment. As and when the
creditors do so, will the consumer debtors be able to meet their
demands? Time will tell if they can, and the consequences if they
can't.
>
> While interest rates are low and may justify high P/E ratios, those
ratios are above average historic levels justifying investment and
earnings are currently subject to downward restatement as a result of
the restatement of many corporate accounts following the debacle of
Enron and WorldCom.
>
> FWIW. I remind you I am not licensed to say these things for
profit.
>
> Tony Pylypuk
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: jeff97_98_1998
> To: realtraders@xxxx
> Sent: Monday, July 08, 2002 9:11 PM
> Subject: [RT] Re: DJIA
>
>
> bear market till 2014.
>
> So do you recommend shorting the sp, dow , nas ?
>
> short and hold for 12 years. Now that's an idea.
>
> wonder what my draw down would be?
>
> any thoughts on stop loss placement?
>
>
>
>
>
> --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Tony Pylypuk" <tpylypuk@xxxx> wrote:
> > Attached are three charts of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
> >
> > Figure 4 (indu-02-07-08(4).gif) is the picture from late 1976
to
> the present.
> >
> > Figure 5 (indu-02-07-08(5).gif) is the picture from 1999 +/- to
the
> present.
> >
> > Figure 6 (indu-02-07-08(6).gif) is the present.
> >
> > What they show, especially Figure 6, is that since mid-June,
2002,
> when INDU penetrated its 20 year support trend line as defined by
the
> intraday lows of July 8, 1982 and November 23, 1994, for the
first
> time since it was first penetrated during the aftermath of
September
> 11, 2001, INDU has been trading between the bounds of that
support
> trend line (now acting as resistance) and an alternate support
trend
> line drawn through the intraday lows of July 8, 1982, and
September
> 21, 2001.
> >
> > If the alternate support trend line is broken (and I would note
> that it remains inviolate even intraday), the next support is in
the
> vicinity of 8641 (a 38.2% retracement of the expansion from
November,
> 1994) and 8350 which represents the extended bottom of the 2.5
year
> bear channel (excluding the downside violation of that channel
> following September 11, 2001).
> >
> > As previously noted, one of my Fibonacci studies suggests a
bear
> market to 2014 (or to an equivalent price point in time - with
thanks
> to Earl Adamy who in a recent post cogently observed that bear
> markets can take on one of (at least) two personalities - they
may
> fall precipitously as in 1929 and 1987 or they may meander
downwards
> and upwards without new significant highs and mostly sideways for
an
> extended period of time).
> >
> > FWIW.
> >
> > As always, I remind you I am not licensed to say these things
for
> profit.
> >
> > Tony Pylypuk
>
>
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>
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