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The odds never change. There is only one combination in 36 that will give
you either a 12 or a 2. The assumption is that you are betting on one or
the other and not a combination of the two. So each time you roll the dice
the odds are exactly the same. If I remember correctly and without doing
the math., if you roll the dice 7 times without a 12 or 2 coming up that the
probability of one of those numbers coming up is about 12/1. There is a
difference between odds and probability. Ira.
----- Original Message -----
From: "charles meyer" <chmeyer@xxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, July 07, 2002 6:44 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: Bear Market ?
> Ira-
>
> I don't wish to be picky about your tutorial; but can you please clarify
> what you
> mean by saying that "the odds for a 12 or a 2 are 36 to 1 each time you
roll
> the dice but each time those numbers don't come up, the probability of it
> happening is far less than the odds." You are saying I think that on each
> subsequent roll of the dice the odds are LESS THAN 36 to 1; that either a
12
> or a 2 will appear; is that correct? Tks for any feedback you can
provide.
>
> chas
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: ira <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Sunday, July 07, 2002 11:37 AM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Re: Bear Market ?
>
>
> > I thank Mr. Baker for his explanation of how probabilities are arrived
at.
> > In this case the ratio is 3/1. As for support and resistance. The
words
> > are self explanatory. They do not say top or bottom. With support/
> > resistance areas price is expected to stop there temporarily and one
> should
> > exit a trade at that point and wait for their system to tell them it is
> time
> > to re enter a trade. Whether it be trend or contra trend. Support
levels
> > are supposed to be bounced off of as are resistance levels. No one said
> > that either is the end of a move. My system provides and entry price
and
> 2
> > support/resistance price levels and a target. All I expect at each
level
> is
> > a retracment in price and the ability to re enter a trade once another
> entry
> > price is given. Many times the trade is in the opposite direction,
contra
> > trend, rather then with the trend. As trend is self determined, your
> bear
> > market may provide my bull trade and vice versa. The Nasdaq, OEX, S&P
> and
> > the INDU have done exactly what they were supposed to do based upon the
> > chart information. Are support/resistance levels specific prices, no.
> > They are price areas. Momentum will often carry price through a
support
> > price before it returns, a spike down. Or price might not quite reach a
> > resistance area due to pressure. that is what indicators are used for.
> You
> > don't need a statistics background to figure basic probability. Just
take
> > each trade presented by the system and add then together then divide
that
> > into the number of times price has actually reached the projected price.
> > That will give you a percentage of accuracy. The more data, the closer
> the
> > degree of accuracy. There is a difference between probability, degree
of
> > accuracy and odds. In rolling dice. The odds for a 12 or a 2 are 36 to
1
> > each time you roll the dice, but each time those numbers don't come up,
> the
> > probability of it happening is far less then the odds. The houses edge,
> > they pay 30/1. Because heads or tails is even money doesn't mean that
you
> > couldn't get 10 heads or tails consecutively and defy the odds and the
> > probabilities. The saying still holds, numbers don't lie, but liars use
> > numbers". One can make the numbers do anything they want, just look at
> > corporate financial reports. That is why TA works and Fundamentals has
> its
> > flaws.
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "jeff97_98_1998" <jprroth@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Sunday, July 07, 2002 7:03 AM
> > Subject: [RT] Re: Bear Market ?
> >
> >
> > > Not Joking,
> > >
> > > How does one compute a 60% probability of a market level
> > > being achieved? And in what time period? And with
> > > what amount of drawdown?
> > >
> > > Why not a 100% probability, given enough time?
> > >
> > > What is used to forecast probability?
> > > I flunked statistics and probability in school,
> > > so this subject is quite confusing to me.
> > >
> > > Also about support and resistance.
> > >
> > > How many support levels has the Nasdaq violated
> > > since 5000? So where was the support?
> > > If you breach 10 support levels, and bounce off the
> > > eleventh, does that prove support levels actually
> > > are tradeable?
> > >
> > > thanks,
> > >
> > > jeff
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "ira" <irat@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > Some interesting things have occurred on the charts with Wednesday
> > > and Fridays numbers. There is nothing in price that has voided the
> > > down trend in the indexes and the rally prices are due for a
> > > retracement, but I would be careful about going short into a
> > > retracement of this rally. There appears to be a 60% probability
> > > that the Nasdaq composite could get to 1500, the 100 to 1170, the S&P
> > > to 1050 and the DOW to 10,000. There are some strong resistance
> > > points prior to reaching these numbers, but they are there. So, if
> > > you are going to short the first thing on Monday, it may pay to have
> > > a safety net somewhere. Good trading, Ira.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
> >
>
>
>
>
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>
>
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