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Ira-
Thank you....my understanding mirrors what you have clarified. Thank you
for a clear and exact description as it relates to the definitions of odds
and
probability in this example.
chas
====
----- Original Message -----
From: ira <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, July 08, 2002 12:07 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: Bear Market ?
> The odds never change. There is only one combination in 36 that will give
> you either a 12 or a 2. The assumption is that you are betting on one or
> the other and not a combination of the two. So each time you roll the
dice
> the odds are exactly the same. If I remember correctly and without doing
> the math., if you roll the dice 7 times without a 12 or 2 coming up that
the
> probability of one of those numbers coming up is about 12/1. There is a
> difference between odds and probability. Ira.
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "charles meyer" <chmeyer@xxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Sunday, July 07, 2002 6:44 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Re: Bear Market ?
>
>
> > Ira-
> >
> > I don't wish to be picky about your tutorial; but can you please clarify
> > what you
> > mean by saying that "the odds for a 12 or a 2 are 36 to 1 each time you
> roll
> > the dice but each time those numbers don't come up, the probability of
it
> > happening is far less than the odds." You are saying I think that on
each
> > subsequent roll of the dice the odds are LESS THAN 36 to 1; that either
a
> 12
> > or a 2 will appear; is that correct? Tks for any feedback you can
> provide.
> >
> > chas
> >
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: ira <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Sunday, July 07, 2002 11:37 AM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] Re: Bear Market ?
> >
> >
> > > I thank Mr. Baker for his explanation of how probabilities are arrived
> at.
> > > In this case the ratio is 3/1. As for support and resistance. The
> words
> > > are self explanatory. They do not say top or bottom. With support/
> > > resistance areas price is expected to stop there temporarily and one
> > should
> > > exit a trade at that point and wait for their system to tell them it
is
> > time
> > > to re enter a trade. Whether it be trend or contra trend. Support
> levels
> > > are supposed to be bounced off of as are resistance levels. No one
said
> > > that either is the end of a move. My system provides and entry price
> and
> > 2
> > > support/resistance price levels and a target. All I expect at each
> level
> > is
> > > a retracment in price and the ability to re enter a trade once another
> > entry
> > > price is given. Many times the trade is in the opposite direction,
> contra
> > > trend, rather then with the trend. As trend is self determined, your
> > bear
> > > market may provide my bull trade and vice versa. The Nasdaq, OEX,
S&P
> > and
> > > the INDU have done exactly what they were supposed to do based upon
the
> > > chart information. Are support/resistance levels specific prices,
no.
> > > They are price areas. Momentum will often carry price through a
> support
> > > price before it returns, a spike down. Or price might not quite reach
a
> > > resistance area due to pressure. that is what indicators are used
for.
> > You
> > > don't need a statistics background to figure basic probability. Just
> take
> > > each trade presented by the system and add then together then divide
> that
> > > into the number of times price has actually reached the projected
price.
> > > That will give you a percentage of accuracy. The more data, the
closer
> > the
> > > degree of accuracy. There is a difference between probability, degree
> of
> > > accuracy and odds. In rolling dice. The odds for a 12 or a 2 are 36
to
> 1
> > > each time you roll the dice, but each time those numbers don't come
up,
> > the
> > > probability of it happening is far less then the odds. The houses
edge,
> > > they pay 30/1. Because heads or tails is even money doesn't mean that
> you
> > > couldn't get 10 heads or tails consecutively and defy the odds and the
> > > probabilities. The saying still holds, numbers don't lie, but liars
use
> > > numbers". One can make the numbers do anything they want, just look
at
> > > corporate financial reports. That is why TA works and Fundamentals
has
> > its
> > > flaws.
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "jeff97_98_1998" <jprroth@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Sunday, July 07, 2002 7:03 AM
> > > Subject: [RT] Re: Bear Market ?
> > >
> > >
> > > > Not Joking,
> > > >
> > > > How does one compute a 60% probability of a market level
> > > > being achieved? And in what time period? And with
> > > > what amount of drawdown?
> > > >
> > > > Why not a 100% probability, given enough time?
> > > >
> > > > What is used to forecast probability?
> > > > I flunked statistics and probability in school,
> > > > so this subject is quite confusing to me.
> > > >
> > > > Also about support and resistance.
> > > >
> > > > How many support levels has the Nasdaq violated
> > > > since 5000? So where was the support?
> > > > If you breach 10 support levels, and bounce off the
> > > > eleventh, does that prove support levels actually
> > > > are tradeable?
> > > >
> > > > thanks,
> > > >
> > > > jeff
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "ira" <irat@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > > Some interesting things have occurred on the charts with Wednesday
> > > > and Fridays numbers. There is nothing in price that has voided the
> > > > down trend in the indexes and the rally prices are due for a
> > > > retracement, but I would be careful about going short into a
> > > > retracement of this rally. There appears to be a 60% probability
> > > > that the Nasdaq composite could get to 1500, the 100 to 1170, the
S&P
> > > > to 1050 and the DOW to 10,000. There are some strong resistance
> > > > points prior to reaching these numbers, but they are there. So, if
> > > > you are going to short the first thing on Monday, it may pay to have
> > > > a safety net somewhere. Good trading, Ira.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
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> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> > >
> > >
> > >
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> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> >
> >
> >
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> >
> >
>
>
>
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