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Ira-
I don't wish to be picky about your tutorial; but can you please clarify
what you
mean by saying that "the odds for a 12 or a 2 are 36 to 1 each time you roll
the dice but each time those numbers don't come up, the probability of it
happening is far less than the odds." You are saying I think that on each
subsequent roll of the dice the odds are LESS THAN 36 to 1; that either a 12
or a 2 will appear; is that correct? Tks for any feedback you can provide.
chas
----- Original Message -----
From: ira <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, July 07, 2002 11:37 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: Bear Market ?
> I thank Mr. Baker for his explanation of how probabilities are arrived at.
> In this case the ratio is 3/1. As for support and resistance. The words
> are self explanatory. They do not say top or bottom. With support/
> resistance areas price is expected to stop there temporarily and one
should
> exit a trade at that point and wait for their system to tell them it is
time
> to re enter a trade. Whether it be trend or contra trend. Support levels
> are supposed to be bounced off of as are resistance levels. No one said
> that either is the end of a move. My system provides and entry price and
2
> support/resistance price levels and a target. All I expect at each level
is
> a retracment in price and the ability to re enter a trade once another
entry
> price is given. Many times the trade is in the opposite direction, contra
> trend, rather then with the trend. As trend is self determined, your
bear
> market may provide my bull trade and vice versa. The Nasdaq, OEX, S&P
and
> the INDU have done exactly what they were supposed to do based upon the
> chart information. Are support/resistance levels specific prices, no.
> They are price areas. Momentum will often carry price through a support
> price before it returns, a spike down. Or price might not quite reach a
> resistance area due to pressure. that is what indicators are used for.
You
> don't need a statistics background to figure basic probability. Just take
> each trade presented by the system and add then together then divide that
> into the number of times price has actually reached the projected price.
> That will give you a percentage of accuracy. The more data, the closer
the
> degree of accuracy. There is a difference between probability, degree of
> accuracy and odds. In rolling dice. The odds for a 12 or a 2 are 36 to 1
> each time you roll the dice, but each time those numbers don't come up,
the
> probability of it happening is far less then the odds. The houses edge,
> they pay 30/1. Because heads or tails is even money doesn't mean that you
> couldn't get 10 heads or tails consecutively and defy the odds and the
> probabilities. The saying still holds, numbers don't lie, but liars use
> numbers". One can make the numbers do anything they want, just look at
> corporate financial reports. That is why TA works and Fundamentals has
its
> flaws.
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "jeff97_98_1998" <jprroth@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Sunday, July 07, 2002 7:03 AM
> Subject: [RT] Re: Bear Market ?
>
>
> > Not Joking,
> >
> > How does one compute a 60% probability of a market level
> > being achieved? And in what time period? And with
> > what amount of drawdown?
> >
> > Why not a 100% probability, given enough time?
> >
> > What is used to forecast probability?
> > I flunked statistics and probability in school,
> > so this subject is quite confusing to me.
> >
> > Also about support and resistance.
> >
> > How many support levels has the Nasdaq violated
> > since 5000? So where was the support?
> > If you breach 10 support levels, and bounce off the
> > eleventh, does that prove support levels actually
> > are tradeable?
> >
> > thanks,
> >
> > jeff
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "ira" <irat@xxxx> wrote:
> > > Some interesting things have occurred on the charts with Wednesday
> > and Fridays numbers. There is nothing in price that has voided the
> > down trend in the indexes and the rally prices are due for a
> > retracement, but I would be careful about going short into a
> > retracement of this rally. There appears to be a 60% probability
> > that the Nasdaq composite could get to 1500, the 100 to 1170, the S&P
> > to 1050 and the DOW to 10,000. There are some strong resistance
> > points prior to reaching these numbers, but they are there. So, if
> > you are going to short the first thing on Monday, it may pay to have
> > a safety net somewhere. Good trading, Ira.
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
>
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>
>
>
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>
>
>
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