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Not Joking,
How does one compute a 60% probability of a market level
being achieved? And in what time period? And with
what amount of drawdown?
Why not a 100% probability, given enough time?
What is used to forecast probability?
I flunked statistics and probability in school,
so this subject is quite confusing to me.
Also about support and resistance.
How many support levels has the Nasdaq violated
since 5000? So where was the support?
If you breach 10 support levels, and bounce off the
eleventh, does that prove support levels actually
are tradeable?
thanks,
jeff
--- In realtraders@xxxx, "ira" <irat@xxxx> wrote:
> Some interesting things have occurred on the charts with Wednesday
and Fridays numbers. There is nothing in price that has voided the
down trend in the indexes and the rally prices are due for a
retracement, but I would be careful about going short into a
retracement of this rally. There appears to be a 60% probability
that the Nasdaq composite could get to 1500, the 100 to 1170, the S&P
to 1050 and the DOW to 10,000. There are some strong resistance
points prior to reaching these numbers, but they are there. So, if
you are going to short the first thing on Monday, it may pay to have
a safety net somewhere. Good trading, Ira.
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