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Then prove it and trade it."expectation of 90% decision accuracy
could be achieved" is hardly a vote of confidence using the
word "could". I expect to be 100% accurate in a trade but am happy to
be 60% accurate with a good profit factor.
Proof is real time trade by trades and not"extracting the magic from
stock market transaction timing". Stock market timers are never 90%
right.I cringe when I see "magic" in a treatise.
I fully understand such wording as escape hatches.
The simple fact is that 90% accuracy has not been proven real time to
make real money.
Where Hurst is and why, is meaningless...if one can not take the heat
of defending a hypothesis or using it to prove it out then something
is wrong with that person or the hypothesis and not those who ask for
proof.
Mine is a critique and warranted to see all points of view.I am
qualified to do that.
I did not start a battle of words...I presented a point of view in
agreement with Ira.
------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
Originally From: Clyde Lee <clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: [RT] SP foreacast
Date: 06/02/2002 08:16pm
John,
One of the things that "abstracts" miss are something like is
on page 140 of the referred work.
"It was found that the expectation of 90% decision accuracy
could be achieved"
"It is shown that the theory is valid, and that the methods work.
all YOU need to do is to master the techniques--and avoid
the psychological barriers inherent in extracting the magic from
stock transaction timing."
My understanding of why Hurst is not around any more in this
area is that he got tired of people who knew not what they were
doing and did not fully understand his work and simply got
tired of unwarranted criticism from unqualified individuals.
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
----- Original Message -----
From: "John Cappello" <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, June 02, 2002 7:44 PM
Subject: [RT] SP foreacast
>
> I, for one, have no interest in what Clyde is doing with the Hurst
> work. And no reference of that was made in my post to which is
> implied.
>
> Abstracts are valuable in science to see if there is an area of
> potential interest. I said I saw none for me.
>
> If Hurst died a millionaire using his work then perhaps I would be
> more enthusiastic. But I do not know that to be the case.
>
> No criticism was implied or expressed of anyone on this thread.
>
> The essence of what I said simply is that I agreed with Ira. 90%
> accuracy is hogwash profitability in the real world, and that is my
> point.
>
> Chill out.
>
> John
>
>
>
>
>
> ------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
> Originally From: Clyde Lee <clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: Re: [RT] SP foreacast
> Date: 06/02/2002 06:42pm
>
>
> Valid and well thought out criticism of one's work is something that
> we must accept if we attempt to add to the work of others.
>
> There are a total of 223 pages in J.M. Hurst's The Profit Magic of
> Stock Transaction Timing.
>
> There is no way that an "abstract" of this book can give the reader
> any idea of the amount of information that is contained therein or
> provide the basis of some kind of criticism of what I am trying to
> do in the area of the Hurst channel.
>
> The reference to "optimization" and "curve fitting" is definitely
out
> of line with what I have done. "Curve fitting" is exactly what the
> whole concept of Fourier analysis and projection is about.
>
> A Fourier analysis of recent price action becomes the basis to
> establish the location of the "Hurst Channels" in the near future.
>
> One might be interested in what Hurst has to say about "curve
> fitting" and how it can be of significant use in future trading but
> to do that one would have to make the effort and take the time
> to read Hurst's entire work
>
> What I do not understand is:
>
> Ira's interpretation:
>
> > to draw lines and channels and postulate. He did not use the
> channels
> > to project price, he used tangential extensions off of offset
moving
> > averages to project price and time. So anyone who is using the
> >channels to project price or direction is going to be in a lot of
> trouble.
> >You don't need a formula to draw the channels, you . . . . .
>
> I believe is wrong simply because it has been some time since he has
> thoroughly reviewed this massive amount of information Hurst
provided
> and has not understood that Hurst did do projections.
>
> Hurst DID advise a method of projecting where channels were likely
> to fall and DID advocate trading at the edges of these channels and
> did do an extensive study of such trading with a relatively few
> issues.
>
> I am of the opinion that if Hurst were active today and with the
> background that he had in the Fourier techniques that he would well
> be using those methods to project his channels rather than the
> "hand" sketching method that he used successfully.
>
> There is nothing in the way of OPTIMIZATION in any of the studies
> of the Hurst channels that I have presented. I have shown methods
> whereby we could obtain RATIONAL expectations of the length of
> important cycles and methods of extrapolating those into the future.
>
> All I would ask that if criticism is offered that it be done from
the
> basis of a very thorough study of Hurst's work and specific detail
> as to where I am not following the principals he has so eloquently
> laid out.
>
> Clyde
>
>
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
> SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
> Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
> Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "John Cappello" <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Sunday, June 02, 2002 4:38 PM
> Subject: [RT] SP foreacast
>
>
> >
> > I agree with the Ira post. I have read abstracts of Hurst's work
and
> > do not believe it is possible to create a mechanical creature that
> is
> > profitable in real life with a 90% accuracy.Invariably with such a
> > system the profit factors fall apart.
> >
> > Curve fitting and overoptimization has always fallen apart in my
> > observations. Plus I do not even know if Hurst traded or was
simply
> > presenting a hypothesis for testing.
> >
> > John
> >
> >
> >
> > ------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
> > Originally From: Ira Tunik <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
> > Subject: [RT] SP foracast
> > Date: 06/02/2002 01:10pm
> >
> >
> > I don't know what is going on with Yahoogroups, but I sent this
out
> at
> > about 6:30 this morning and it never got posted. Here is the
second
> > try. Ira.
> >
> > I read all this ridicule of Hurst and his channels and wonder if
> > anyone
> > actually bothered to read the book, do the homework, and study the
> > results or if they just like
> > to draw lines and channels and postulate. He did not use the
> channels
> > to project price, he used tangential extensions off of offset
moving
> > averages to project price
> > and time. So anyone who is using the channels to project price or
> > direction is going to be in a lot of trouble. You don't need a
> > formula
> > to draw the channels, you
> > can get the same effect with a series of straight lines connecting
> the
> > lows and parallels for the highs. It is not the lines, the
> > extensions,
> > or the ability to count that will
> > make Hurst's system work for you, it is understanding what he is
> > trying
> > to prove and how it works and what its limitations are. If I am
not
> > mistaken, and I would
> > have to go back to the book to confirm this, that time impacts
price
> > less then 30% of the time. That leaves you over 70% of the time
> > blowing
> > in the wind. It is the
> > understanding of what is being used and its limitations and
> advantages
> > that will help you in your trading and not guess work based upon
> what
> > someone else says it is
> > supposed to do. So if you believe that understanding times
function
> > in
> > price action will help your trading by the book and study it. Try
> to
> > understand what he has
> > written not just read the words and look at the charts. Ira.
> >
> > Adrian Pitt wrote:
> >
> >
>
>
>
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