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This is not a personal issue with me and I refuse to make it one.
I can and have coped with much. It is unfounded claims that shoud be
presented as same. This issue went from a totally 100% mechanical
system to one that requires other factors to make it possibly
successful.
I stall no discussion on it but rather pose questions which should
perpetuate discussion.
john
------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
Originally From: "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: RE: : [RT] SP forcast
Date: 06/04/2002 06:54am
John,
I understood EXACTLY where you were coming from, but your one of these
people that unless your presented with detailed factually proven
method
with graphs and statistics then you totally dismiss a discussion. Now
that is ludicrous. Any perhaps you'd be surprised to know that the
world is actually full of 'ludicrous traders' LOL ..they don't all
think
like you. And no I didn't misquote you or misunderstand you. I knew
exactly what you meant having 60% wins is ok if the risk/reward is
there
on each trade...it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that. You
seem to have forgotten this 90% thing all came from one originating
email where a guy obviously made silly claims and we were attempting
to
expand upon it and garner more detail through a discussion..but you
couldn't cope....how sad.
Adrian
> -----Original Message-----
> From: John Cappello [mailto:jvc689@xxxxxxx]
> Sent: Monday, 3 June 2002 11:27 PM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: : [RT] SP forcast
>
>
> Adrian,
>
> If one does not go into a trade not expecting a profit then that is
a
> ludicrous trader. I am still happy with a 55% to 65% accuracy if
the
> profit factor is satisfactory. I believe you misquoted me. I never
> said anything was ludicrous, as I recall. I said 90% accuracy was
> meaningless to me as presented. I have seen some 90% accurate
systems
> and they just do not work to make a profit...Supreme Order was one
> and an England imported system was another. I spent a year on them
> and the profit factor threw them out the window.
>
> I posted both ELA's on them a while back.
>
> Self respect is more important to me than the respect of others who
> do not understand where I am coming from.
>
> John
>
>
>
> ------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
> Originally From: "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: RE: [RT] SP forcast
> Date: 06/03/2002 07:29pm
>
>
> John,
>
> You say you think 90% is ludicrous but you expect to be 100%
> accurate??
> LOL
> Explain that one please. Then explain why your still happy when
you
> can
> ONLY achieve 60%. That must be such a let down when you EXPECT
100%?
> I
> know you trade for yourself with various models, so I have
> always been interested in your viewpoint, but your posts
> today show signs of
> Hurt's
> problem...that he went mad and died.
>
> Adrian
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: John Cappello [mailto:jvc689@xxxxxxx]
> > Sent: Monday, 3 June 2002 12:08 PM
> > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: [RT] SP forcast
> >
> >
> >
> > Then prove it and trade it."expectation of 90% decision accuracy
> > could be achieved" is hardly a vote of confidence using the
> > word "could". I expect to be 100% accurate in a trade but am
happy
> to
> > be 60% accurate with a good profit factor.
> >
> > Proof is real time trade by trades and not"extracting the magic
> from
> > stock market transaction timing". Stock market timers are never
90%
> > right.I cringe when I see "magic" in a treatise.
> >
> > I fully understand such wording as escape hatches.
> >
> > The simple fact is that 90% accuracy has not been proven real time
> to
> > make real money.
> >
> > Where Hurst is and why, is meaningless...if one can not take the
> heat
> > of defending a hypothesis or using it to prove it out then
> something
> > is wrong with that person or the hypothesis and not those who ask
> for
> > proof.
> >
> > Mine is a critique and warranted to see all points of view.I am
> > qualified to do that.
> >
> > I did not start a battle of words...I presented a point of view in
> > agreement with Ira.
> >
> >
> >
> > ------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
> > Originally From: Clyde Lee <clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > Subject: Re: [RT] SP foreacast
> > Date: 06/02/2002 08:16pm
> >
> >
> > John,
> >
> > One of the things that "abstracts" miss are something like is
> > on page 140 of the referred work.
> >
> > "It was found that the expectation of 90% decision accuracy
> > could be achieved"
> >
> > "It is shown that the theory is valid, and that the methods
> > work. all YOU need to do is to master the techniques--and
> > avoid the psychological barriers inherent in extracting the
> > magic from stock transaction timing."
> >
> > My understanding of why Hurst is not around any more in this
> > area is that he got tired of people who knew not what they
> > were doing and did not fully understand his work and simply
> > got tired of unwarranted criticism from unqualified individuals.
> >
> > Clyde
> >
> > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> > Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
> > SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> > 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
> > Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
> > Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
> > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "John Cappello" <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Sunday, June 02, 2002 7:44 PM
> > Subject: [RT] SP foreacast
> >
> >
> > >
> > > I, for one, have no interest in what Clyde is doing with the
> Hurst
> > > work. And no reference of that was made in my post to which is
> > > implied.
> > >
> > > Abstracts are valuable in science to see if there is an area of
> > > potential interest. I said I saw none for me.
> > >
> > > If Hurst died a millionaire using his work then perhaps I would
> be
> > > more enthusiastic. But I do not know that to be the case.
> > >
> > > No criticism was implied or expressed of anyone on this thread.
> > >
> > > The essence of what I said simply is that I agreed with Ira. 90%
> > > accuracy is hogwash profitability in the real world, and that
is
> my
> > > point.
> > >
> > > Chill out.
> > >
> > > John
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > ------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
> Originally
> > > From: Clyde Lee <clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] SP foreacast
> > > Date: 06/02/2002 06:42pm
> > >
> > >
> > > Valid and well thought out criticism of one's work is
> > something that
> > > we must accept if we attempt to add to the work of others.
> > >
> > > There are a total of 223 pages in J.M. Hurst's The Profit Magic
> of
> > > Stock Transaction Timing.
> > >
> > > There is no way that an "abstract" of this book can give the
> reader
> > > any idea of the amount of information that is contained therein
> or
> > > provide the basis of some kind of criticism of what I am
> > trying to do
> > > in the area of the Hurst channel.
> > >
> > > The reference to "optimization" and "curve fitting" is
definitely
> > out
> > > of line with what I have done. "Curve fitting" is exactly what
> the
> > > whole concept of Fourier analysis and projection is about.
> > >
> > > A Fourier analysis of recent price action becomes the basis to
> > > establish the location of the "Hurst Channels" in the near
future.
> > >
> > > One might be interested in what Hurst has to say about
> > "curve fitting"
> > > and how it can be of significant use in future trading but
> > to do that
> > > one would have to make the effort and take the time to read
> Hurst's
> > > entire work
> > >
> > > What I do not understand is:
> > >
> > > Ira's interpretation:
> > >
> > > > to draw lines and channels and postulate. He did not use the
> > > channels
> > > > to project price, he used tangential extensions off of offset
> > moving
> > > > averages to project price and time. So anyone who is using
> the
> > > >channels to project price or direction is going to be in a lot
> of
> > > trouble.
> > > >You don't need a formula to draw the channels, you . . . . .
> > >
> > > I believe is wrong simply because it has been some time
> > since he has
> > > thoroughly reviewed this massive amount of information Hurst
> > provided
> > > and has not understood that Hurst did do projections.
> > >
> > > Hurst DID advise a method of projecting where channels were
> > likely to
> > > fall and DID advocate trading at the edges of these
> > channels and did
> > > do an extensive study of such trading with a relatively few
> issues.
> > >
> > > I am of the opinion that if Hurst were active today and with the
> > > background that he had in the Fourier techniques that he
> > would well be
> > > using those methods to project his channels rather than
> the "hand"
> > > sketching method that he used successfully.
> > >
> > > There is nothing in the way of OPTIMIZATION in any of the
> > studies of
> > > the Hurst channels that I have presented. I have shown methods
> > > whereby we could obtain RATIONAL expectations of the length of
> > > important cycles and methods of extrapolating those into the
> future.
> > >
> > > All I would ask that if criticism is offered that it be done
from
> > the
> > > basis of a very thorough study of Hurst's work and specific
> > detail as
> > > to where I am not following the principals he has so
> > eloquently laid
> > > out.
> > >
> > > Clyde
> > >
> > >
> > > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> > > Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
> > > SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
> > > Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
> > > Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
> > > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "John Cappello" <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Sunday, June 02, 2002 4:38 PM
> > > Subject: [RT] SP foreacast
> > >
> > >
> > > >
> > > > I agree with the Ira post. I have read abstracts of Hurst's
work
> > and
> > > > do not believe it is possible to create a mechanical creature
> that
> > > is
> > > > profitable in real life with a 90% accuracy.Invariably
> > with such a
> > > > system the profit factors fall apart.
> > > >
> > > > Curve fitting and overoptimization has always fallen apart in
> my
> > > > observations. Plus I do not even know if Hurst traded or was
> > simply
> > > > presenting a hypothesis for testing.
> > > >
> > > > John
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > ------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
> > Originally
> > > > From: Ira Tunik <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Subject: [RT] SP foracast
> > > > Date: 06/02/2002 01:10pm
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > I don't know what is going on with Yahoogroups, but I sent
this
> > out
> > > at
> > > > about 6:30 this morning and it never got posted. Here is the
> > second
> > > > try. Ira.
> > > >
> > > > I read all this ridicule of Hurst and his channels and wonder
> if
> > > > anyone actually bothered to read the book, do the homework,
and
> > > > study the results or if they just like
> > > > to draw lines and channels and postulate. He did not use the
> > > channels
> > > > to project price, he used tangential extensions off of offset
> > moving
> > > > averages to project price
> > > > and time. So anyone who is using the channels to project
> > price or
> > > > direction is going to be in a lot of trouble. You don't need
a
> > > > formula to draw the channels, you
> > > > can get the same effect with a series of straight lines
> connecting
> > > the
> > > > lows and parallels for the highs. It is not the lines, the
> > > > extensions, or the ability to count that will
> > > > make Hurst's system work for you, it is understanding what he
is
> > > > trying
> > > > to prove and how it works and what its limitations are. If I
> am
> > not
> > > > mistaken, and I would
> > > > have to go back to the book to confirm this, that time impacts
> > price
> > > > less then 30% of the time. That leaves you over 70% of the
> time
> > > > blowing in the wind. It is the
> > > > understanding of what is being used and its limitations and
> > > advantages
> > > > that will help you in your trading and not guess work based
upon
> > > what
> > > > someone else says it is
> > > > supposed to do. So if you believe that understanding times
> > function
> > > > in
> > > > price action will help your trading by the book and study it.
> Try
> > > to
> > > > understand what he has
> > > > written not just read the words and look at the charts. Ira.
> > > >
> > > > Adrian Pitt wrote:
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
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