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Don,
do you normally see divergences btw A and C waves, in what oscillator and is
there a difference in the divergence depending on the corrective pattern (flat,
ZZ, expanded flat). Also have you seen a pattern of divergence in
triangles.
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Don Ewers
[mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Monday, May 27, 2002 8:55
PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT] SPX
index forecastChris,I am not sure I agree.
I have seen your manual counts at times and comparedthem to ones I have
running on a similar chart and they are not the same.Although not pure
Elliott I think AGET's use of primarily the 5/35oscillator to find the
wave 3 (as well as the 10/70 to measure extremeextensions and the 5/17 to
measure internal counts) lays out a wholediffernet picture than you may be
seeing? From my use of over 7 years Icould not do counts
correctly without these, including ABC's looking fordivergence. When
to that you add the wave 4 channel's and we are not takingthe same things
(warns of expanded count change). Just my two cents, butmaybe
consider adding them and you may find you are counting a
verydifferent count :-)Stand on my statement, if doing "correct
counts" wave C's have 5 waves.don ewers----- Original Message
-----From: "chrischeatham" <nchrisc@xxxxxxxxxx>To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent: Sunday, May 26, 2002 10:17
AMSubject: Re: [RT] SPX index forecast> I have concluded
that the 3 and 5 Elliott rules just don't hold true.> A wave 1 can be a
3, a wave 5 can be a 3. These happen over and over> and over again. As
to zig zag c waves, how can you determine by> elliott rules if you are
not really dealing with abc-x-abc instead of> an abc? This gets you to
the same place with a zig zag termination of> a
correction.>> The other thing I have concluded is that Andrews,
Babson, etc.> geometry trumps elliott counts most of the
time.>> My two cents,> Chris>>> ---
In realtraders@xxxx, "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxx> wrote:> >
Frost's work may be the bible, but its certainly not something you>
would> > use to make market analysis off. That's like leaving
school after> 6th> > grade and expecting to be a university
professor. Clearly> ridiculous.> > There is only one work I
regard as the bible, and that speaking from> > almost 15 years of
real time use. I'm speaking of Neely's book> > "Mastering
Elliott Wave Theory". I warn readers though it is only>
for> > the very serious Elliott student, and actually not something
I would> > recommend generally.> > As for C's being
zig-zags, that's only true if the C wave was part> of a> >
"B' or "X' wave triangle, or part of a Terminating Triangle.
There> are> > NO 3 wave C's in a non-terminating impulse
pattern...end of story.> To> > suggest zig-zag C waves are
common is absurd. How would anyone> gain any> > benefit
from EWT is they never knew whether the C wave was going to> be
a> > 3 or 5 wave affair???? Clearly the theory would be
useless.> > Thankfully, readers, you can be rest assured Frost and
Elliott were> > generally right. ALL (except for those
highlighted above) 'C'> waves in> > 'abc' are 5 wave
affairs.> >> > Regards,> >> > Adrian
Pitt> > -----Original Message-----> > From: Joe Duffy
[mailto:joeduffy@xxxx]> > Sent: Friday, 24 May 2002 10:49 AM>
> To: realtraders@xxxx> > Subject: Re: [RT] SPX index
forecast> >> >> > When Jack Frost wrote analysis
part what is now kind of the bible of> > Elliot (Prechter wrote the
postcsript part), he wrote as Elliot did> that> > all c's are
5's. Having kept hourly dow charts by hand for about 8> years>
> (a while ago) I can say in my experience all C's are not 5's, and
a> > zig-zag C is common.> >> > ---- Original
Message -----> > From: Don <mailto:dbewers@xxxx>
Ewers> > To: realtraders@xxxx> > Sent: Thursday, May 23,
2002 11:22 PM> > Subject: Re: [RT] SPX index forecast>
>> > Lee,> > Wave C if and when it unfolds after a wave
c:B advance should not> be a> > zig-zag but a five wave
decline FWIW.> > don ewers> > ----- Original Message
-----> > From: Lee <mailto:LMorris@xxxx> Morris>
> To: realtraders@xxxx> > Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 9:45
PM> > Subject: RE: [RT] SPX index forecast> >> >
I think you are right on with both the short and long. The only> >
difference I have is that on the long range forecast I favor the> >
possibility of the move from sept to jan as wave A (of B), since> jan
as> > wave B (which is close to ending) and the next major rally
wave C> of B> > then the final down move to at or below sept
would be wave C of a> zig> > zag. Practically it does not
change how I would trade regardless of> if> > you are right
and this is a baby bull or the second option that> this is> >
a bear mkt rally. Either way the at a min the upcoming rally should>
be> > very powerful. The only issue I have is with the VIX and P/C
ratio,> at> > the current levels I do not think that we have
the fuel for this> kind of> > rally so I would like to see
the final move to your target of 1030> be> > fast and furious
to scare some people.> > -----Original Message-----> >
From: Hill, Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxx]> > Sent: Thursday, May
23, 2002 6:55 PM> > To: realtraders@xxxx> > Subject: [RT]
SPX index forecast> >> >> > I am pretty new to
this list and this is my first attempt at a> > contribution. I know
that some of you are professionals and I> welcome> > your
comments and insights to my analysis.> >> > It appears
that the high turning point in the SPX that some of you> were>
> anticipating has been made. On 5-17 we closed at 1106.59 and then>
again> > touched that level on an intra-day basis the next day. I
believe> there> > is a reasonable possibility that the market
could move back up near> the> > turn high over the next
couple of days before resuming the move> down. I> > believe
there is an even smaller chance that the market may even> > slightly
exceed the high and actually make the turn as late as 5-28.>
>> > My short term forecast:> >> > I am
anticipating the next low turn to occur within four days of 6-> 4.
My> > target price range is 1027 to 1034. 1.382 times the move from
5-7 to> > 5-17 yields 79.51 points subtract this number from the
high of> 1106.59> > and we arrive at the low target of
1027.08. A 61.8% retracement of> the> > move from 9-21 to 1-9
yields a target price of 1033.46. If this> > projected down move
does terminate in the projected target range,> it has> > the
potential to be the end point of the correction for the entire>
move> > from 9-21 to 1-9. And could set the stage for a significant
and> > sustainable move up.> > My longer term
forecast:> > Normally my technical focus is on a much shorter time
frame, but> when I> > saw that we might be about to complete
the correction of the move> from> > 9-21 to 1-9, I thought I
would take a little longer term> perspective.> > On the
attached and or pictured chart (I will attempt to do both) I>
have> > drawn a trend line from the bottom of the first move down
from the> March> > 2000 high connecting lows made in March of
2001 and September of> 2001. I> > have also drawn a trend
line from the top of the first upward> reaction> > to the
initial down move from the March 2000 high and connected it> to>
> the high made in May of 2001.> > As you can see these trend
lines clearly define the trading channel> of> > the bear
market. Looking at this chart the first indication we have>
that> > the bear market is over, is the penetration of the top trend
line> and> > the fact that the market has traded outside the
bear market channel> for> > most of this year.> >
My current time frame for the next low turning point is within four>
days> > of 6-4. This time frame will be reached on this chart in the
next> one to> > two bars. Notice where my target price range
(1034-1027) for the> next> > low turning point falls on this
chart. If during the time frame of> the> > next one to two
bars my projected price range is met it will fall> just> >
above the upper trend line at 1025.> > From an Elliott wave
standpoint the move from 9-21 to 1-9 could be> > interpreted as a
wave one impulse wave, followed by a simple A-B-C> zig> > zag
correction as labeled on the chart. With the "C" wave> terminating
at> > my projected low turning point, completing wave two, and
setting the> > stage for the usually dynamic impulse wave three to
begin.> > In conclusion what I see in the chart patterns and in my
analysis> is the> > early stages of a new Bull market, and an
excellent buying> opportunity> > dead ahead.> >
E> > DGLChart> >> >> >> >
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