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Daniel,
1. Its not a system..and has never been advertised as such. It about
being able to use the EWT to better interpret the market.
2. Can you explain how a trade that loses money can be anything but
100% wrong???
3. Can you provide the detailed statistics on Win% and Avg/Avg Loss
that you say your aware of with Neelys work please. I'm sure
your intelligent enough not to make decisions on things that you
hear third hand in a non scientific manner.
Adrian
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Daniel Watkins [mailto:watnetd@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Monday, 27 May 2002 7:47 AM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: RE: [RT] SPX index forecast
>
>
>
> i have seen/heard neely make some excellent and well
> publicized "calls". but, i have also heard several close
> neely-watchers recite a string of predictions which were 100
> % wrong. now, no system is perfect or close to it, but a
> system which is so complex and complete and interpreted by
> its inventor/discoveror should have a much better record than
> what i have seen/heard related.
>
> in short, or long, i don't see that his system is any better
> than any others and it seems to promise more. like all these
> systems and proprietary indicators they seemd to quickly
> become self-absorbed and lose touch with the market, herself.
>
>
> h1/dw
>
>
>
>
> On Mon, 27 May 2002, Adrian Pitt wrote:
>
> > I can't answer that question because 1. I don't do wave
> counts on the
> > US markets and 2. I don't keep any sort of record of the
> regularity of
> > pattern types. Sorry.
> >
> > Adrian
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: M. Simms [mailto:prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > Sent: Sunday, 26 May 2002 9:16 PM
> > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: RE: [RT] SPX index forecast
> >
> >
> > I have Neely's book...and I can attest to it's completeness....and
> > complexity. The number of rules explained in that bible are
> > staggering. if AGET or any other EWT software implements
> these rules
> > in exacting detail, I would be really impressed.
> >
> > One key issue re: "As for C's being zig-zags, that's only
> true if the
> > C wave was part of a "B' or "X' wave triangle, or part of a
> > Terminating Triangle. " For the S&P or Dow Jones average - hourly
> > chart, what percentage of C waves fall into the
> classification above ?
> > 10%, 30%, 50% ?
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Adrian Pitt [mailto:apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > Sent: Sunday, May 26, 2002 12:55 AM
> > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: RE: [RT] SPX index forecast
> >
> >
> > Frost's work may be the bible, but its certainly not something you
> > would use to make market analysis off. That's like leaving school
> > after 6th grade and expecting to be a university professor. Clearly
> > ridiculous. There is only one work I regard as the bible, and that
> > speaking from almost 15 years of real time use. I'm speaking of
> > Neely's book "Mastering Elliott Wave Theory". I warn
> readers though
> > it is only for the very serious Elliott student, and actually not
> > something I would recommend generally. As for C's being zig-zags,
> > that's only true if the C wave was part of a "B' or "X'
> wave triangle,
> > or part of a Terminating Triangle. There are NO 3 wave C's in a
> > non-terminating impulse pattern...end of story. To suggest
> zig-zag C
> > waves are common is absurd. How would anyone gain any benefit from
> > EWT is they never knew whether the C wave was going to be a 3 or 5
> > wave affair???? Clearly the theory would be useless. Thankfully,
> > readers, you can be rest assured Frost and Elliott were generally
> > right. ALL (except for those highlighted above) 'C' waves
> in 'abc'
> > are 5 wave affairs.
> >
> > Regards,
> >
> > Adrian Pitt
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Joe Duffy [mailto:joeduffy@xxxxxxxxx]
> > Sent: Friday, 24 May 2002 10:49 AM
> > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: Re: [RT] SPX index forecast
> >
> >
> > When Jack Frost wrote analysis part what is now kind of the
> bible of
> > Elliot (Prechter wrote the postcsript part), he wrote as Elliot did
> > that all c's are 5's. Having kept hourly dow charts by hand
> for about
> > 8 years (a while ago) I can say in my experience all C's
> are not 5's,
> > and a zig-zag C is common.
> >
> > ---- Original Message -----
> > From: Don <mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> Ewers
> > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 11:22 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] SPX index forecast
> >
> > Lee,
> > Wave C if and when it unfolds after a wave c:B advance
> should not be a
> > zig-zag but a five wave decline FWIW. don ewers
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Lee <mailto:LMorris@xxxxxxxxxx> Morris
> > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 9:45 PM
> > Subject: RE: [RT] SPX index forecast
> >
> > I think you are right on with both the short and long. The only
> > difference I have is that on the long range forecast I favor the
> > possibility of the move from sept to jan as wave A (of B),
> since jan
> > as wave B (which is close to ending) and the next major
> rally wave C
> > of B then the final down move to at or below sept would be
> wave C of a
> > zig zag. Practically it does not change how I would trade
> regardless
> > of if you are right and this is a baby bull or the second
> option that
> > this is a bear mkt rally. Either way the at a min the
> upcoming rally
> > should be very powerful. The only issue I have is with the
> VIX and P/C
> > ratio, at the current levels I do not think that we have
> the fuel for
> > this kind of rally so I would like to see the final move to your
> > target of 1030 be fast and furious to scare some people.
> -----Original
> > Message-----
> > From: Hill, Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
> > Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 6:55 PM
> > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: [RT] SPX index forecast
> >
> >
> > I am pretty new to this list and this is my first attempt at a
> > contribution. I know that some of you are professionals and
> I welcome
> > your comments and insights to my analysis.
> >
> > It appears that the high turning point in the SPX that some of you
> > were anticipating has been made. On 5-17 we closed at
> 1106.59 and then
> > again touched that level on an intra-day basis the next
> day. I believe
> > there is a reasonable possibility that the market could
> move back up
> > near the turn high over the next couple of days before resuming the
> > move down. I believe there is an even smaller chance that
> the market
> > may even slightly exceed the high and actually make the
> turn as late
> > as 5-28.
> >
> > My short term forecast:
> >
> > I am anticipating the next low turn to occur within four
> days of 6-4.
> > My target price range is 1027 to 1034. 1.382 times the move
> from 5-7
> > to 5-17 yields 79.51 points subtract this number from the high of
> > 1106.59 and we arrive at the low target of 1027.08. A 61.8%
> > retracement of the move from 9-21 to 1-9 yields a target price of
> > 1033.46. If this projected down move does terminate in the
> projected
> > target range, it has the potential to be the end point of the
> > correction for the entire move from 9-21 to 1-9. And could set the
> > stage for a significant and sustainable move up. My longer term
> > forecast: Normally my technical focus is on a much shorter
> time frame,
> > but when I saw that we might be about to complete the correction of
> > the move from 9-21 to 1-9, I thought I would take a little
> longer term
> > perspective. On the attached and or pictured chart (I will
> attempt to
> > do both) I have drawn a trend line from the bottom of the
> first move
> > down from the March 2000 high connecting lows made in March of 2001
> > and September of 2001. I have also drawn a trend line from
> the top of
> > the first upward reaction to the initial down move from the
> March 2000
> > high and connected it to the high made in May of 2001.
> > As you can see these trend lines clearly define the trading
> channel of
> > the bear market. Looking at this chart the first indication
> we have that
> > the bear market is over, is the penetration of the top
> trend line and
> > the fact that the market has traded outside the bear market
> channel for
> > most of this year.
> > My current time frame for the next low turning point is
> within four days
> > of 6-4. This time frame will be reached on this chart in
> the next one to
> > two bars. Notice where my target price range (1034-1027)
> for the next
> > low turning point falls on this chart. If during the time
> frame of the
> > next one to two bars my projected price range is met it
> will fall just
> > above the upper trend line at 1025.
> > >From an Elliott wave standpoint the move from 9-21 to 1-9 could be
> > interpreted as a wave one impulse wave, followed by a
> simple A-B-C zig
> > zag correction as labeled on the chart. With the "C" wave
> terminating
> > at my projected low turning point, completing wave two, and setting
> > the stage for the usually dynamic impulse wave three to begin. In
> > conclusion what I see in the chart patterns and in my
> analysis is the
> > early stages of a new Bull market, and an excellent buying
> opportunity
> > dead ahead. E
> > DGLChart
> >
> >
> >
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