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I
think you are right on with both the short and long. The only difference I have
is that on the long range forecast I favor the possibility of the move from sept
to jan as wave A (of B), since jan as wave B (which is close to ending) and the
next major rally wave C of B then the final down move to at or below sept would
be wave C of a zig zag. Practically it does not change how I would trade
regardless of if you are right and this is a baby bull or the second option that
this is a bear mkt rally. Either way the at a min the upcoming rally should be
very powerful. The only issue I have is with the VIX and P/C ratio, at the
current levels I do not think that we have the fuel for this kind of rally so I
would like to see the final move to your target of 1030 be fast and furious to
scare some people.
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Hill, Ernie
[mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 6:55
PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: [RT] SPX index
forecast
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">I am
pretty new to this list and this is my first attempt at a contribution. I know
that some of you are professionals and I welcome your comments and insights to
my analysis.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">It
appears that the high turning point in the SPX that some of you were
anticipating has been made. On 5-17 we closed at 1106.59 and then again
touched that level on an intra-day basis the next day. I believe there is a
reasonable possibility that the market could move back up near the turn high
over the next couple of days before resuming the move down. I believe there is
an even smaller chance that the market may even slightly exceed the high and
actually make the turn as late as 5-28.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">My
short term forecast<FONT
face=Arial color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">:
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">I am
anticipating the next low turn to occur within four days of 6-4. My target
price range is 1027 to 1034. 1.382 times the move from 5-7 to 5-17 yields
79.51 points subtract this number from the high of 1106.59 and we arrive at
the low target of 1027.08. A 61.8% retracement of the move from 9-21 to 1-9
yields a target price of 1033.46. If this projected down move does terminate
in the projected target range, it has the potential to be the end point of the
correction for the entire move from 9-21 to 1-9. And could
set the stage for a significant and sustainable move up<SPAN
style="COLOR: blue">.<SPAN
class=EmailStyle19><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">My longer term
forecast:<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Normally my
technical focus is on a much shorter time frame, but when I saw that we might
be about to complete the correction of the move from 9-21 to 1-9, I thought I
would take a little longer term perspective.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">On the attached and
or pictured chart (I will attempt to do both) I have drawn a trend line from
the bottom of the first move down from the March 2000 high connecting lows
made in March of 2001 and September of 2001. I have also drawn a trend line
from the top of the first upward reaction to the initial down move from the
March 2000 high and connected it to the high made in May of
2001.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">As you can see these
trend lines clearly define the trading channel of the bear market. Looking at
this chart the first indication we have that the bear market is over, is the
penetration of the top trend line and the fact that the market has traded
outside the bear market channel for most of this
year.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">My current time
frame for the next low turning point is within four days of 6-4.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">This time frame will
be reached on this chart in <SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">the next one to two bars. Notice
where my target price range (1034-1027) for the next low turning point falls
on this chart. If during the time frame of the next one to two bars my
projected price range is met it will fall just above
the upper trend line at 1025.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">From an Elliott wave
standpoint the move from 9-21 to 1-9 could be interpreted as a wave one
impulse wave, followed by a simple A-B-C zig zag correction as
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">labeled on the
chart. <SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">With
the <SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">"C" wave terminating
at my projected <SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">low
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">turning point,
completing wave two, and setting the stage for the usually dynamic impulse
wave three to begin.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">In conclusion what I
see in the chart patterns and in my analysis <SPAN
class=GramE><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">is the early
stages<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> of a
new B<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">ull market, and an
excellent buying opportunity dead ahead.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">E
<IMG
width=800>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <FONT
size=3>******************************************************************This
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