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Lee,
Wave C if and when it unfolds after a wave c:B
advance should not be a zig-zag but a five wave decline FWIW.
don ewers
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Lee Morris
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 9:45
PM
Subject: RE: [RT] SPX index
forecast
I
think you are right on with both the short and long. The only difference I
have is that on the long range forecast I favor the possibility of the move
from sept to jan as wave A (of B), since jan as wave B (which is close to
ending) and the next major rally wave C of B then the final down move to at or
below sept would be wave C of a zig zag. Practically it does not change how I
would trade regardless of if you are right and this is a baby bull or the
second option that this is a bear mkt rally. Either way the at a min the
upcoming rally should be very powerful. The only issue I have is with the VIX
and P/C ratio, at the current levels I do not think that we have the fuel for
this kind of rally so I would like to see the final move to your target of
1030 be fast and furious to scare some people.
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Hill, Ernie
[mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 6:55
PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: [RT] SPX
index forecast
<FONT color=black face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: windowtext; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">I am
pretty new to this list and this is my first attempt at a contribution. I
know that some of you are professionals and I welcome your comments and
insights to my analysis.
<FONT color=black face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: windowtext; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT color=black face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: windowtext; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">It
appears that the high turning point in the SPX that some of you were
anticipating has been made. On 5-17 we closed at 1106.59 and then again
touched that level on an intra-day basis the next day. I believe there is a
reasonable possibility that the market could move back up near the turn high
over the next couple of days before resuming the move down. I believe there
is an even smaller chance that the market may even slightly exceed the high
and actually make the turn as late as
5-28.
<FONT color=black face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: windowtext; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT color=black face=Arial
size=3><SPAN
style="COLOR: windowtext; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">My
short term forecast<FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: windowtext; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">:
<FONT color=black face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: windowtext; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT color=black face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: windowtext; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">I am
anticipating the next low turn to occur within four days of 6-4. My target
price range is 1027 to 1034. 1.382 times the move from 5-7 to 5-17 yields
79.51 points subtract this number from the high of 1106.59 and we arrive at
the low target of 1027.08. A 61.8% retracement of the move from 9-21 to 1-9
yields a target price of 1033.46. If this projected down move does terminate
in the projected target range, it has the potential to be the end point of
the correction for the entire move from 9-21 to 1-9. And
could set the stage for a significant and sustainable move up<FONT
color=blue><SPAN
style="COLOR: blue">.<SPAN
class=EmailStyle19><SPAN
style="COLOR: blue; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">My longer term
forecast:<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Normally my
technical focus is on a much shorter time frame, but when I saw that we
might be about to complete the correction of the move from 9-21 to 1-9, I
thought I would take a little longer term
perspective.
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">On the attached
and or pictured chart (I will attempt to do both) I have drawn a trend line
from the bottom of the first move down from the March 2000 high connecting
lows made in March of 2001 and September of 2001. I have also drawn a trend
line from the top of the first upward reaction to the initial down move from
the March 2000 high and connected it to the high made in May of
2001.
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">As you can see
these trend lines clearly define the trading channel of the bear market.
Looking at this chart the first indication we have that the bear market is
over, is the penetration of the top trend line and the fact that the market
has traded outside the bear market channel for most of this
year.
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">My current time
frame for the next low turning point is within four days of
6-4. <SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">This time frame
will be reached on this chart in <SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">the next one to two bars. Notice
where my target price range (1034-1027) for the next low turning point falls
on this chart. If during the time frame of the next one to two bars my
projected price range is met it will fall just
above the upper trend line at 1025.
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">From an Elliott
wave standpoint the move from 9-21 to 1-9 could be interpreted as a wave one
impulse wave, followed by a simple A-B-C zig zag correction as
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">labeled on the
chart. <SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">With
the <SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">"C" wave
terminating at my projected <FONT color=black face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">low
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">turning point,
completing wave two, and setting the stage for the usually dynamic impulse
wave three to begin.
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">In conclusion what
I see in the chart patterns and in my analysis <SPAN
class=GramE><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">is the early
stages<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"> of a
new B<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">ull market, and an
excellent buying opportunity dead ahead.
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">E
<IMG
alt=DGLChart height=600 id=_x0000_i1025
width=800>
<SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"> <FONT
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