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<font size=2 color=black
face=Arial>I
am pretty new to this list and this is my first attempt at a contribution. I
know that some of you are professionals and I welcome your comments and
insights to my analysis.
<font size=2 color=black
face=Arial>
<font size=2 color=black
face=Arial>It
appears that the high turning point in the SPX that some of you were anticipating
has been made. On 5-17 we closed at 1106.59 and then again touched that level
on an intra-day basis the next day. I believe there is a reasonable possibility
that the market could move back up near the turn high over the next couple of
days before resuming the move down. I believe there is an even smaller chance
that the market may even slightly exceed the high and actually make the turn as
late as 5-28.
<font size=2 color=black
face=Arial>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial>My
short term forecast<font size=2
color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;
color:windowtext'>:
<font size=2 color=black
face=Arial>
<font size=2 color=black
face=Arial>I
am anticipating the next low turn to occur within four days of 6-4. My target
price range is 1027 to 1034. 1.382 times the move from 5-7 to 5-17 yields 79.51
points subtract this number from the high of 1106.59 and we arrive at the low
target of 1027.08. A 61.8% retracement of the move from 9-21 to 1-9 yields a
target price of 1033.46. If this projected down move does terminate in the
projected target range, it has the potential to be the end point of the
correction for the entire move from 9-21 to 1-9. And could
set the stage for a significant and sustainable move up<span
style='color:blue'>.<span
class=EmailStyle19><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;color:blue'>
<span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial;color:black'>My longer term forecast:<font
size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:black'>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;color:black'>Normally my technical focus is on a much shorter
time frame, but when I saw that we might be about to complete the correction of
the move from 9-21 to 1-9, I thought I would take a little longer term
perspective.
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;color:black'>On the attached and or pictured chart (I will
attempt to do both) I have drawn a trend line from the bottom of the first move
down from the March 2000 high connecting lows made in March of 2001 and
September of 2001. I have also drawn a trend line from the top of the first
upward reaction to the initial down move from the March 2000 high and connected
it to the high made in May of 2001.
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;color:black'>As you can see these trend lines clearly define
the trading channel of the bear market. Looking at this chart the first
indication we have that the bear market is over, is the penetration of the top
trend line and the fact that the market has traded outside the bear market
channel for most of this year.
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;color:black'>My current time frame for the next low turning
point is within four days of 6-4. <font size=2 color=black
face=Arial>This
time frame will be reached on this chart in <font size=2
face=Arial>the next one to two
bars. Notice where my target price range (1034-1027) for the next low turning
point falls on this chart. If during the time frame of the next one to two bars
my projected price range is met it will fall just
above the upper trend line at 1025.
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;color:black'>From an Elliott wave standpoint the move from
9-21 to 1-9 could be interpreted as a wave one impulse wave, followed by a
simple A-B-C zig zag correction as <font size=2 color=black
face=Arial>labeled
on the chart. <span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'>With the <font
size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:black'>"C" wave terminating at my projected <font
size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:black'>low <span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'>turning point,
completing wave two, and setting the stage for the usually dynamic impulse wave
three to begin.
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;color:black'>In conclusion what I see in the chart patterns
and in my analysis <font size=2 color=black
face=Arial>is the
early stages<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'> of a new B<font
size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:black'>ull market, and an excellent buying opportunity dead ahead.
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;color:black'>E
<img
alt=DGLChart>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>
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