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Earl,
it seems I'm in the boat next to you as my play book is the same. The issue I've
got is that we are running out of real estate on the downside and the vix is not
moving and if we do not get going soon several of the longer cycles and the
seasonality will work against us. I see a lot of possible CIT around the 8th
which is next monday
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Earl Adamy
[mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Tuesday, April 02, 2002 9:46
PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT] Time
and Motion Trading TestI'm still working with the
weekly ABC projection SP futures chart I postedin October. When the SP put
in the 1073 low, I was able to refine my W.Ctarget to a range of 1222-1331
which I expected to be reached in April.Thus, I've been expecting a rally
for some weeks now, however so far it hasnot been ready to move. What I am
observing is a constant and violentrotation under the hood of a very low
VIX and oscillating breadth. OnMonday, the ND rallied strongly while the
SP lagged badly. Today, NDdeclined strongly while the SP put in a flag and
then refused to break. Thisalternation has been occurring rather
frequently which is indicative of achurning market which is difficult for
traders and hazardous to investors.I'm not sure when this will end,
however positive seasonality ends at theend of this month. My best guess
is that the SP will undergo a sharp declinewithin a few days and then
commence the expected rally.Earl----- Original Message
-----From: "Bob Heisler" <BHEISLER@xxxxxxxxx>To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent: Tuesday, April 02, 2002 6:29
PMSubject: Re: [RT] Time and Motion Trading Test> I was
looking for the same thing Earl. I thought we had something
whenthe> ND broke and held 1430ish, but while the ND crept lower
the Dow crepthigher> trapping the S&P inside a 6 point
range...ugh. It would sure be nice to> have a day(s) when the
DJ/ND are in sync instead of divergent the majority> of the time.
Looks like we need the Dow to surrender the 260 area to get> through
1134 which should liven things up a bit. In the interim I hope>
bonds continue to move the way they have been. What a pleasure it was
to> trade them again today.>> Bob>> -----
Original Message -----> From: "Earl Adamy"
<eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>> To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> Sent: Tuesday, April 02, 2002 9:59
AM> Subject: Re: [RT] Time and Motion Trading
Test>>> > I submit that this morning's trading is
nothing more than a bear flag> > setting up within the bounds of 38%
retracement of the decline ... this> > suggests that 1134 is
unlikely to hold.> >> > Earl> >> >
----- Original Message -----> > From: "BobR"
<bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > Sent: Tuesday, April 02, 2002
8:55 AM> > Subject: Re: [RT] Time and Motion Trading Test>
>> >> > > Classical MP theory says we are in for a
range bound day defined by> 1144.1> > > and 1134.30
because the open was within Monday's value area. So farthe>
> > first 3 half hour brackets are pretty much hanging onto Monday's
value> > area> > > pivot of 1139.2. So, its for
S/R trading within vah and val until a> close> > > and
open outside that area.> > >> > > bobr> >
>> > > ----- Original Message -----> > > From:
"BobR" <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > > To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > > Sent: Tuesday, April 02,
2002 7:43 AM> > > Subject: Re: [RT] Time and Motion Trading
Test> > >> > >> > > > The system
trade here is a break above the first hour high at 1141.5> and>
> > > since the day's range is so narrow so far compared to the
average,> John> > > > might easily get the 4 points to
take it from the current four tothe> > > > average of
9.29.> > > >> > > > bobr> > >
>> > > > ----- Original Message -----> > >
> From: "John Cappello" <jvc689@xxxxxxx>> > > > To:
"Ira Tunik" <irat@xxxxxxxxx>;
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > > > Sent: Tuesday,
April 02, 2002 7:29 AM> > > > Subject: [RT] Time and Motion
Trading Test> > > >> > > >> > >
> > Dear Ira,> > > > >> > > > > I
am using EST . The cash S&P at 10 AM was -7.4 and at 10:15 was ->
> > > > 7.14, maybe a buy signal in raw state. I am looking
initially at a4> > > > > pt stop and 11:15 AM
exit.> > > > >> > > > >
Sincerely,> > > > >> > > > >
John> > > > >> > > > >> > >
> >> > > > > ------------------ Reply Separator
--------------------> > > > > Originally From: Ira Tunik
<irat@xxxxxxxxx>> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Time and
Motion Trading> > > > > Date: 04/02/2002 06:32am>
> > > >> > > > >> > > > > In
almost any cycle study a pattern shows up. When you use 10:00>
AM,> > > > > which> > > > > time zone
are you in? If you are still trading at 2 PM itcertainly>
> > > > isn't> > > > > the west coast. By
breaking down the daily bars one can locate> > > > >
certain times> > > > > of the day when markets tend to
reverse their direction. If youget> > > > > down
to> > > > > the 5 min. 3 min. and 1 min. time frames you
are able to get downto> > > > > the 1> > >
> > 1/2 hour cycles, etc. There used to be patterns that
occurredwhen> > > > > it was> > > >
> lunch time in NY and Chicago, but they only held up for a little>
> > > > while. One> > > > > has to take
the time to not only find the cycle but to analyze it> and> >
> > > understand that it will not remain constant and for a while
they> > > > > could become> > > > > self
fulfilling. I have not been able to find a timing systemthat>
> > > > will> > > > > stand alone as a trading
vehicle. If anyone has, I would be> > > > >
interested. Ira.> > > > >> > > > > PS.
Does the sky have a color or is it just a reflection of>
something> > > > > else?> > > > > Just
like some on this list, who act as mirrors of drivel and bad> > >
> > taste.> > > > >> > > > > John
Cappello wrote:> > > > >> > > > > >
Certain authors have written about the subject. The one I have>
been> > > > > > casually following is an observation
that the S&P market startsto> > > > > >
establish two major moves , one at 10 AM and another at 2 PM.> >
> > > >> > > > > > I have just been
observing the 10 AM move by logging in the cash> > > > >
> value at 10 AM and again at 10:15 AM. In 4 of the five days>
followed> > > > > > the direction up or down movement
was sustained to at leastuntil> > > > > > 11:15 for
what appeared to be a profit.> > > > > >> >
> > > > Has anyone tried to build a system around anything close
to this> > > > > > concept.?> > > > >
>> > > > > > Ben made a beautiful post on calls with
charts and all...no> comments> > > > > > from the
peanut gallery likely because they did not understandit.> > >
> > >> > > > >> > > > >>
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> > >> >
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