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I'm still working with the weekly ABC projection SP futures chart I posted
in October. When the SP put in the 1073 low, I was able to refine my W.C
target to a range of 1222-1331 which I expected to be reached in April.
Thus, I've been expecting a rally for some weeks now, however so far it has
not been ready to move. What I am observing is a constant and violent
rotation under the hood of a very low VIX and oscillating breadth. On
Monday, the ND rallied strongly while the SP lagged badly. Today, ND
declined strongly while the SP put in a flag and then refused to break. This
alternation has been occurring rather frequently which is indicative of a
churning market which is difficult for traders and hazardous to investors.
I'm not sure when this will end, however positive seasonality ends at the
end of this month. My best guess is that the SP will undergo a sharp decline
within a few days and then commence the expected rally.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Bob Heisler" <BHEISLER@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, April 02, 2002 6:29 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Time and Motion Trading Test
> I was looking for the same thing Earl. I thought we had something when
the
> ND broke and held 1430ish, but while the ND crept lower the Dow crept
higher
> trapping the S&P inside a 6 point range...ugh. It would sure be nice to
> have a day(s) when the DJ/ND are in sync instead of divergent the majority
> of the time. Looks like we need the Dow to surrender the 260 area to get
> through 1134 which should liven things up a bit. In the interim I hope
> bonds continue to move the way they have been. What a pleasure it was to
> trade them again today.
>
> Bob
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, April 02, 2002 9:59 AM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Time and Motion Trading Test
>
>
> > I submit that this morning's trading is nothing more than a bear flag
> > setting up within the bounds of 38% retracement of the decline ... this
> > suggests that 1134 is unlikely to hold.
> >
> > Earl
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "BobR" <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Tuesday, April 02, 2002 8:55 AM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] Time and Motion Trading Test
> >
> >
> > > Classical MP theory says we are in for a range bound day defined by
> 1144.1
> > > and 1134.30 because the open was within Monday's value area. So far
the
> > > first 3 half hour brackets are pretty much hanging onto Monday's value
> > area
> > > pivot of 1139.2. So, its for S/R trading within vah and val until a
> close
> > > and open outside that area.
> > >
> > > bobr
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "BobR" <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Tuesday, April 02, 2002 7:43 AM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] Time and Motion Trading Test
> > >
> > >
> > > > The system trade here is a break above the first hour high at 1141.5
> and
> > > > since the day's range is so narrow so far compared to the average,
> John
> > > > might easily get the 4 points to take it from the current four to
the
> > > > average of 9.29.
> > > >
> > > > bobr
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "John Cappello" <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
> > > > To: "Ira Tunik" <irat@xxxxxxxxx>; <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Tuesday, April 02, 2002 7:29 AM
> > > > Subject: [RT] Time and Motion Trading Test
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Dear Ira,
> > > > >
> > > > > I am using EST . The cash S&P at 10 AM was -7.4 and at 10:15 was -
> > > > > 7.14, maybe a buy signal in raw state. I am looking initially at a
4
> > > > > pt stop and 11:15 AM exit.
> > > > >
> > > > > Sincerely,
> > > > >
> > > > > John
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > ------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
> > > > > Originally From: Ira Tunik <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Time and Motion Trading
> > > > > Date: 04/02/2002 06:32am
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > In almost any cycle study a pattern shows up. When you use 10:00
> AM,
> > > > > which
> > > > > time zone are you in? If you are still trading at 2 PM it
certainly
> > > > > isn't
> > > > > the west coast. By breaking down the daily bars one can locate
> > > > > certain times
> > > > > of the day when markets tend to reverse their direction. If you
get
> > > > > down to
> > > > > the 5 min. 3 min. and 1 min. time frames you are able to get down
to
> > > > > the 1
> > > > > 1/2 hour cycles, etc. There used to be patterns that occurred
when
> > > > > it was
> > > > > lunch time in NY and Chicago, but they only held up for a little
> > > > > while. One
> > > > > has to take the time to not only find the cycle but to analyze it
> and
> > > > > understand that it will not remain constant and for a while they
> > > > > could become
> > > > > self fulfilling. I have not been able to find a timing system
that
> > > > > will
> > > > > stand alone as a trading vehicle. If anyone has, I would be
> > > > > interested. Ira.
> > > > >
> > > > > PS. Does the sky have a color or is it just a reflection of
> something
> > > > > else?
> > > > > Just like some on this list, who act as mirrors of drivel and bad
> > > > > taste.
> > > > >
> > > > > John Cappello wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > > Certain authors have written about the subject. The one I have
> been
> > > > > > casually following is an observation that the S&P market starts
to
> > > > > > establish two major moves , one at 10 AM and another at 2 PM.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I have just been observing the 10 AM move by logging in the cash
> > > > > > value at 10 AM and again at 10:15 AM. In 4 of the five days
> followed
> > > > > > the direction up or down movement was sustained to at least
until
> > > > > > 11:15 for what appeared to be a profit.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Has anyone tried to build a system around anything close to this
> > > > > > concept.?
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Ben made a beautiful post on calls with charts and all...no
> comments
> > > > > > from the peanut gallery likely because they did not understand
it.
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
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