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And this thread has what to do with us helping one
another become better traders in the current world??????????
Your turning into another ric whatever his name
is.
Trading and helping one another is why were here so
let's get back to it.
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
tim
long
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, February 25, 2002 7:25
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Vegas Anyone? - The
Nasdaq Sniffer
I'm reading this thread and it seems to me that some
clarity is in order,IMHO.What do we know is predictable? Certainly the
tides, but what perfectionlevel is needed?Humans trading
-vs- computers (programmed by humans) trading - what are themain
issues?Can we program our thinking? Left brain logic?, yes, of
course.Blackjack is a good example of left brain usage. Try to be right
brained andyou are a loser.No human can outperform a computer at this.
The latest Chess computer canbeat any human. Chess is about strategy and
tactics, in human theory, but,to a computer that has every game ever
played (and is well programmed), it'sreally about the superior capacities,
data and speed of the computer.Trading? What does trading
consist of? Are the decisions made left-brained,right-brained or just
purely emotional? I don't imagine anyone here wouldchallenge
the idea of having a trading plan, which is all left-brain stuff.If one
programs all the components of a professionally done written tradingplan,
it's likely unbeatable.Now back to the original issue,
predictability. If one tries to forecastthe future, it calls for
inductive reason, based on something like cycles.It's projected outward in
time. This I'd call a strategy.I admit ignorance with neural nets. It
seems like step-wise regressiontesting or something like that. But
deductive reasoning, like after a chessmove, would be used (I guess) by
the neural net, kinda like the weather. Iwouldn't call it a
forecast, maybe a pattern recognition probability, or avalidation or
invalidation of the original forecast (strategy).OK. A lot of words to
say "what is the probability that this prediction isaccurate?". If a
program can make a prediction and record it on thedatabase, it's easy
enough to go back and compare the actual result to it.Computer test
results, (Odds, Probabilities) would be the "edge"
overhumans.Personally, I don't think humans are made for trading,
any more thanBlackjack, i.e, if the goal is to make money.IMHO,
the components of human behavior are absolutely predictable,
and,programmable, but not by Friday.I don't know where we are on
"Visual" technology, but, it seems inevitablethat the computer will
surpass us. But, for now, experience can be "seen" bythe pros and I guess
it'll still be king, for a little while anyway.Sorry if I overdid
this,Tim----- Original Message -----From: BL
<blee7@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent: Monday, February 25, 2002 8:49
PMSubject: Re: [RT] Vegas Anyone? - The Nasdaq Sniffer>
> Neural nets are a joke compared to what I am talking
about. NN keep> > learning and re adapting to new data in old
data series by refitting.> > I am talking about
something that knows more than any mass of humans> > could ever know
let alone communicate to each other in a timely enough> > fashion to
utilize that knowledge.>>> Okay,>> I'll put
my old-timey, Neural Net clunker joke model up against any>
fire-breathing, sounding-hearing, master-of-the-universe computer
model,and> this ain't even close to being one of my best.
It's 100% market exposed,> trades on the open only using EOD data for
signal generation, trades one> contract and changes position, on
average, once every 2 days. Any> supercomputer takers or is it
all talk? Oh yeah, I guess I need to be> up-front and let you
know one of the model's inputs can actually smell the> market, thus the
name - the Nasdaq Sniffer..... Supercomputer, Kick my> net's
ass. I'll even give you a handicap and let you trade intra-day
ifyou> like. Just allow me time to change the net's batteries
when needed.>>> To unsubscribe from this group, send an
email to:>
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>>> Your
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