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I'm reading this thread and it seems to me that some clarity is in order,
IMHO.
What do we know is predictable? Certainly the tides, but what perfection
level is needed?
Humans trading -vs- computers (programmed by humans) trading - what are the
main issues?
Can we program our thinking? Left brain logic?, yes, of course.
Blackjack is a good example of left brain usage. Try to be right brained and
you are a loser.
No human can outperform a computer at this. The latest Chess computer can
beat any human. Chess is about strategy and tactics, in human theory, but,
to a computer that has every game ever played (and is well programmed), it's
really about the superior capacities, data and speed of the computer.
Trading? What does trading consist of? Are the decisions made left-brained,
right-brained or just purely emotional? I don't imagine anyone here would
challenge the idea of having a trading plan, which is all left-brain stuff.
If one programs all the components of a professionally done written trading
plan, it's likely unbeatable.
Now back to the original issue, predictability. If one tries to forecast
the future, it calls for inductive reason, based on something like cycles.
It's projected outward in time. This I'd call a strategy.
I admit ignorance with neural nets. It seems like step-wise regression
testing or something like that. But deductive reasoning, like after a chess
move, would be used (I guess) by the neural net, kinda like the weather. I
wouldn't call it a forecast, maybe a pattern recognition probability, or a
validation or invalidation of the original forecast (strategy).
OK. A lot of words to say "what is the probability that this prediction is
accurate?". If a program can make a prediction and record it on the
database, it's easy enough to go back and compare the actual result to it.
Computer test results, (Odds, Probabilities) would be the "edge" over
humans.
Personally, I don't think humans are made for trading, any more than
Blackjack, i.e, if the goal is to make money.
IMHO, the components of human behavior are absolutely predictable, and,
programmable, but not by Friday.
I don't know where we are on "Visual" technology, but, it seems inevitable
that the computer will surpass us. But, for now, experience can be "seen" by
the pros and I guess it'll still be king, for a little while anyway.
Sorry if I overdid this,
Tim
----- Original Message -----
From: BL <blee7@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, February 25, 2002 8:49 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Vegas Anyone? - The Nasdaq Sniffer
> > Neural nets are a joke compared to what I am talking about. NN keep
> > learning and re adapting to new data in old data series by refitting.
> > I am talking about something that knows more than any mass of humans
> > could ever know let alone communicate to each other in a timely enough
> > fashion to utilize that knowledge.
>
>
> Okay,
>
> I'll put my old-timey, Neural Net clunker joke model up against any
> fire-breathing, sounding-hearing, master-of-the-universe computer model,
and
> this ain't even close to being one of my best. It's 100% market exposed,
> trades on the open only using EOD data for signal generation, trades one
> contract and changes position, on average, once every 2 days. Any
> supercomputer takers or is it all talk? Oh yeah, I guess I need to be
> up-front and let you know one of the model's inputs can actually smell the
> market, thus the name - the Nasdaq Sniffer..... Supercomputer, Kick my
> net's ass. I'll even give you a handicap and let you trade intra-day if
you
> like. Just allow me time to change the net's batteries when needed.
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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>
>
>
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>
>
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