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I don't think we need clarity. In fact this thread is painfully clear. But
I do think the folks pushing this argument need a healthy dose of
self-confidence. Computers are excellent tools if used properly by humans
but they will never replace us. Nor will they ever transform anyone into a
trader - only you can do that.
Bob
----- Original Message -----
From: "tim long" <tlong22@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, February 25, 2002 9:25 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Vegas Anyone? - The Nasdaq Sniffer
> I'm reading this thread and it seems to me that some clarity is in order,
> IMHO.
> What do we know is predictable? Certainly the tides, but what perfection
> level is needed?
>
> Humans trading -vs- computers (programmed by humans) trading - what are
the
> main issues?
> Can we program our thinking? Left brain logic?, yes, of course.
> Blackjack is a good example of left brain usage. Try to be right brained
and
> you are a loser.
> No human can outperform a computer at this. The latest Chess computer can
> beat any human. Chess is about strategy and tactics, in human theory, but,
> to a computer that has every game ever played (and is well programmed),
it's
> really about the superior capacities, data and speed of the computer.
>
> Trading? What does trading consist of? Are the decisions made
left-brained,
> right-brained or just purely emotional? I don't imagine anyone here
would
> challenge the idea of having a trading plan, which is all left-brain
stuff.
> If one programs all the components of a professionally done written
trading
> plan, it's likely unbeatable.
>
> Now back to the original issue, predictability. If one tries to forecast
> the future, it calls for inductive reason, based on something like cycles.
> It's projected outward in time. This I'd call a strategy.
> I admit ignorance with neural nets. It seems like step-wise regression
> testing or something like that. But deductive reasoning, like after a
chess
> move, would be used (I guess) by the neural net, kinda like the weather. I
> wouldn't call it a forecast, maybe a pattern recognition probability, or
a
> validation or invalidation of the original forecast (strategy).
>
> OK. A lot of words to say "what is the probability that this prediction is
> accurate?". If a program can make a prediction and record it on the
> database, it's easy enough to go back and compare the actual result to it.
> Computer test results, (Odds, Probabilities) would be the "edge" over
> humans.
>
> Personally, I don't think humans are made for trading, any more than
> Blackjack, i.e, if the goal is to make money.
>
> IMHO, the components of human behavior are absolutely predictable, and,
> programmable, but not by Friday.
> I don't know where we are on "Visual" technology, but, it seems inevitable
> that the computer will surpass us. But, for now, experience can be "seen"
by
> the pros and I guess it'll still be king, for a little while anyway.
>
> Sorry if I overdid this,
>
> Tim
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: BL <blee7@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Monday, February 25, 2002 8:49 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Vegas Anyone? - The Nasdaq Sniffer
>
>
> > > Neural nets are a joke compared to what I am talking about. NN keep
> > > learning and re adapting to new data in old data series by refitting.
> > > I am talking about something that knows more than any mass of humans
> > > could ever know let alone communicate to each other in a timely enough
> > > fashion to utilize that knowledge.
> >
> >
> > Okay,
> >
> > I'll put my old-timey, Neural Net clunker joke model up against any
> > fire-breathing, sounding-hearing, master-of-the-universe computer model,
> and
> > this ain't even close to being one of my best. It's 100% market
exposed,
> > trades on the open only using EOD data for signal generation, trades one
> > contract and changes position, on average, once every 2 days. Any
> > supercomputer takers or is it all talk? Oh yeah, I guess I need to be
> > up-front and let you know one of the model's inputs can actually smell
the
> > market, thus the name - the Nasdaq Sniffer..... Supercomputer, Kick my
> > net's ass. I'll even give you a handicap and let you trade intra-day if
> you
> > like. Just allow me time to change the net's batteries when needed.
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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>
>
>
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>
>
>
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