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No, I didn't assume that. What
I said was don't think about retirement in the historical way and how different
views might affect the historical sell equities/buy bonds
relationship.
If Ford's recent issue is any
indication, demand is already there (they had bids for 8 billion of their 30 yr.
but were planning to sell only 1.5 bil. The shorter maturities were more
evenly matched between supply and demand. The problem is that the long end
hasn't come down the way the short end has. And it won't or not for long,
if the current explosion of the money supply does what it has done in the past -
inflation. I think the long end smells inflation in the wind. We
live in interesting time.
Regards,
Mike
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000080 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Daniel
Goncharoff
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 2:37
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: 30 year treasury
issuance suspended
<FONT face=Arial
color=#000080 size=2><FONT
face=Arial color=#000080 size=2><FONT face=Arial color=#000080
size=2>You
are assuming that the 'younger' retirees will keep a substantialpercentage
in equities. The risk to that way of thinking is if wefinally get to the
psychology of a bottom, ie, Joe Public hates stocks,and moves into bonds
instead...And if I were running the Treasury (or a large corporation),
I would bewaiting here for the big move into bonds *before* starting to
takeadvantage of the demand for LT bonds and borrowing
long.RegardsDanGYou wrote:Bruce,Examine
your views of boomers and retirement. Retirement no longer hasthe
"gold watch at 65" definition. Think about it and it's impact
onsellequities/buy bonds.Regards,MikeTo
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