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Bernie Schaeffer remains skeptical.
Bernie Schaeffer of Schaeffer's Investment Research injects a healthy dose
of skepticism into a market that has projected surprising and somewhat
puzzling optimism of late. Schaeffer cautions investors that the rally off
the Sept. 21 lows -- while nothing short of spectacular -- appears to be yet
another violent upswing within a bear market. He points out, in fact, that
the market has consistently displayed the capability to rally during
earnings reporting periods. "The market in 2001 has exhibited a remarkable
tendency to rally during earnings reporting months while otherwise spending
its time in serious declining mode," the strategist said. He added that
stocks tend to reach some kind of extreme ahead of earnings during a bear
market and that any reality short of total disaster is thus received
positively by investors. "But once we emerge from the earnings reporting
months, the focus moves back to earnings growth, and this has been and
remains an overriding negative with no relief in sight. If this pattern
holds true for the rest of this year, then November and December could get
pretty ugly for the market," Schaeffer said.
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