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Bruce,
I would be unfair to not post an example of a MOB failure (the "break" side
of the equation). So here is one.
I have been posting that bonds were in a wave 5 on a 60min chart and
"should" move higher (a move also supported by the daily and weekly charts).
The MOB off the 60min wave 3 is on the attached chart between 108-17 and
108-26. So prices should "make" the MOB, would be what one would be looking
for.
Assuming you use a 60min chart to trade, you would have taken profits at the
MOB. After which with the weekly showing higher MOBS, maybe buy a retrace
or reverse if such a sell signal appeared. The movement through the MOB
like this tells you something (particullarly had it been more orderly). Now
whether you could get back on board or not is another question with this
kind of power move, but had it moved through and closed above, then took out
the high of that bar, it is a signal to get back on board and go to a higher
time frame for targets (like the weekly posted earlier).
I just don't want anyone thinking these things are magical.
You will notice prices temporarily stalled underneath the 60min MOB though
before busting through.
don ewers
----- Original Message -----
From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 11:29 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term
> Bruce,
> MOB stands for Make Or Break and it is a tool within the AGET program. The
> "bands" represent target areas based on prior price action pattern and are
> calculated off of previous peaks. I considered them additive to the
> standard fib expansion ranges that project areas where a specific wave
might
> end. In that regard they zero in on a 'tighter" possible target range.
Do
> the always hold nope, are they always reached nope, can they be exceeded
> yes, nothing is perfect, but I have found them to be very helpful.
>
> Essentially price is likely to "make" it there and if it "breaks" it on a
> closing basis can be a sign of an extended move above it (essentially what
> should have been resistance was blow away). In general they are places to
> consider taking "some off the wagon" so to speak if not all and look for a
> reversal.
>
> The black vertical bars in them represent possible timing. The black box
to
> the far left of the band will disappear when the prior peak it is drawn
from
> is exceeded and the MOB locks in place for price and time.
>
> Probably more than you wanted to know, sorry.
> don ewers
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: <bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 11:10 AM
> Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term
>
>
> > Sorry, what's a MOB? Only MOB I'm familiar with is the Muni over
> > Bond spread.
> >
> >
> > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx> wrote:
> > > Slawek,
> > > The seasonal (dark green line) on a AGET US01Z continuous weekly
> > would
> > > agree on a February peak (if not before). February 8, 2002 is the
> > peak on
> > > the seasonal for next year. Looking back on previous years shows
> > the
> > > pattern has followed it quite nicely?
> > >
> > > That said we are into the wave 5 target range (shown as .618 to 1.0
> > > expansion) with several MOB's overhead (one off the previous wave 3
> > (@111-28
> > > to 112-26) and the other one is off the1998 peak in bonds (@115-16
> > to
> > > 118-03)) . Where exactly they stop price wise is still an unknown
> > but these
> > > are some areas to watch.
> > >
> > > Bruce, your 117 pegs the exact center of the 1998 MOB, FYIW.
> > > don ewers
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: <SLAWEKP@xxxx>
> > > To: <REALTRADERS@xxxx>
> > > Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 9:35 AM
> > > Subject: [RT] bonds long term
> > >
> > >
> > > > From weekly inverted 30 yr. Yield
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > --------------------------------------------------------------------
> > --------
> > > ----
> >
> >
> >
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> >
> >
> >
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http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
>
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