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Just because this happend in 1993 does not mean it will now... we are in a
new world.... pre 911 there was a large liquidation of US Assets by
foreigners..... that can continue especially if US$ decline continues... or
if U.S. is hit with continued terrorist attacks. I would expect gold to
rally with a weaker US$ but we may be in scenario where repatriation of
funds from U.S. assets continue....all the new supply of debt one would
think would cause long end some trouble.... we'll see.......... :-)
----- Original Message -----
From: <bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, October 25, 2001 12:17 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] bonds top?
> Forgot to mention gold rallied from $330 to $410 in early 1993 while
> bonds were on their way from 101-122 so they can move in tandem as
> well.
>
>
> --- In realtraders@xxxx, bruce.larson@xxxx wrote:
> > 111.24 is near where bonds topped in 10/98. We need to go alot
> > higher imho. You can probably make a case there is some
> correlation
> > between dollar and bonds, but I remember 1985-6, when commodities
> and
> > the dollar both got creamed and the bonds shot up like a bat out of
> > hell. I have no view on the dollar here but feel commodities will
> > remain under pressure. The same forces of 1993, investors reaching
> > up the curve chasing yields, and mortgage duration extension trades
> > will squeeze bond yields down. Just need further evidence of
> subdued
> > inflation, credit problems and buybacks.
> >
> > here is --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Dorothy K. Carter"
> > <dorothy.carter@xxxx> wrote:
> > > Re recent topping pattern.. bonds have gone down on bigger volume
> > on big
> > > down days than they have rallied back on up days... IF bonds are
> > going to
> > > break out then US$ will have to resume uptrend and volume will
> have
> > to pick
> > > up on any break to new highs if that happens. US $ has given
> > target to
> > > 112.75 ala 116.15 nt so US$ action next few days maybe telling..
> > IF top not
> > > in bonds watch March Bonds for potential peak around 111.24.....
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "BobR" <bobrabcd@xxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > Sent: Wednesday, October 24, 2001 9:07 PM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] bonds top?
> > >
> > >
> > > > The price distribution still looks suspect for day session only
> > data.
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > Sent: Wednesday, October 24, 2001 5:58 PM
> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] bonds top?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Bonds closed above this important 78% retracement today,
> > however I don't
> > > > > have any wave counts on which I would hang my hat because the
> > 20Sep
> > > > decline
> > > > > was so violent and so quickly retraced. Best guess at the
> > moment is that
> > > > > bonds are in a W.3 and should be headed to 111 area per both
> > daily and
> > > > > weekly charts.
> > > > >
> > > > > Earl
> > > > >
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxx>
> > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > Sent: Saturday, October 20, 2001 1:06 PM
> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] bonds top?
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > Regarding earlier comments regarding the breach of the 78%
> > bullish
> > > > > > retracement level there was not a daily close above this
> > important
> > > level
> > > > > to
> > > > > > confirm the breach. Failure to close above this important
> > level is a
> > > > clue
> > > > > > that a correction may be underway.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Earl
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
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> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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>
>
>
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