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All I'm saying is that intermarket correlations described by the
academics don't work consistently. Nikkei appears to be
outperforming the Dow for the past few weeks and that could be a sign
of repatriation. But that's equity funny money that's gravitated out
of Japan into the US over the past 10 years. Will bond funny money
flee from the US back home to Japan where 10 year jgb yields are
1.6%, public sector debt is 140 of gdp, sovereign debt was recently
downgraded by S&P and Moody's, and the currency is being publicly
talked down? I wouldn't bet on it.
--- In realtraders@xxxx, "Dorothy K. Carter" <dorothy.carter@xxxx>
wrote:
> Just because this happend in 1993 does not mean it will now... we
are in a
> new world.... pre 911 there was a large liquidation of US Assets by
> foreigners..... that can continue especially if US$ decline
continues... or
> if U.S. is hit with continued terrorist attacks. I would expect
gold to
> rally with a weaker US$ but we may be in scenario where
repatriation of
> funds from U.S. assets continue....all the new supply of debt one
would
> think would cause long end some trouble.... we'll
see.......... :-)
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: <bruce.larson@xxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, October 25, 2001 12:17 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] bonds top?
>
>
> > Forgot to mention gold rallied from $330 to $410 in early 1993
while
> > bonds were on their way from 101-122 so they can move in tandem as
> > well.
> >
> >
> > --- In realtraders@xxxx, bruce.larson@xxxx wrote:
> > > 111.24 is near where bonds topped in 10/98. We need to go alot
> > > higher imho. You can probably make a case there is some
> > correlation
> > > between dollar and bonds, but I remember 1985-6, when
commodities
> > and
> > > the dollar both got creamed and the bonds shot up like a bat
out of
> > > hell. I have no view on the dollar here but feel commodities
will
> > > remain under pressure. The same forces of 1993, investors
reaching
> > > up the curve chasing yields, and mortgage duration extension
trades
> > > will squeeze bond yields down. Just need further evidence of
> > subdued
> > > inflation, credit problems and buybacks.
> > >
> > > here is --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Dorothy K. Carter"
> > > <dorothy.carter@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > Re recent topping pattern.. bonds have gone down on bigger
volume
> > > on big
> > > > down days than they have rallied back on up days... IF bonds
are
> > > going to
> > > > break out then US$ will have to resume uptrend and volume will
> > have
> > > to pick
> > > > up on any break to new highs if that happens. US $ has given
> > > target to
> > > > 112.75 ala 116.15 nt so US$ action next few days maybe
telling..
> > > IF top not
> > > > in bonds watch March Bonds for potential peak around
111.24.....
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "BobR" <bobrabcd@xxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > Sent: Wednesday, October 24, 2001 9:07 PM
> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] bonds top?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > The price distribution still looks suspect for day session
only
> > > data.
> > > > >
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxx>
> > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > Sent: Wednesday, October 24, 2001 5:58 PM
> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] bonds top?
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > Bonds closed above this important 78% retracement today,
> > > however I don't
> > > > > > have any wave counts on which I would hang my hat because
the
> > > 20Sep
> > > > > decline
> > > > > > was so violent and so quickly retraced. Best guess at the
> > > moment is that
> > > > > > bonds are in a W.3 and should be headed to 111 area per
both
> > > daily and
> > > > > > weekly charts.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Earl
> > > > > >
> > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxx>
> > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > > Sent: Saturday, October 20, 2001 1:06 PM
> > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] bonds top?
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > Regarding earlier comments regarding the breach of the
78%
> > > bullish
> > > > > > > retracement level there was not a daily close above this
> > > important
> > > > level
> > > > > > to
> > > > > > > confirm the breach. Failure to close above this
important
> > > level is a
> > > > > clue
> > > > > > > that a correction may be underway.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Earl
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
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> > > > > >
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