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I would be very nervous at these levels to consider either a long... I
don't know I have final on yesterday's vol for bonds.. a futures analyst
friend of mine said he had 147743 but he did not know if that was final vol
for yesterday... that is lower than last several days which has been lower
than down move... I'd be very nervous long in either long end of bonds or
SPZ right here
----- Original Message -----
From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, October 02, 2001 11:57 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Bonds
> Today potentially sets up as a good "news reversal trade" day. Once the
> reaction occurs (SP's or bonds) and assuming they are not wipping all
over,
> a trade back to the price point before the news event would be an
indication
> to go with it.
>
> Example the fed cuts a 1/4 point and bonds sell off a 1/2 point. If they
> trade back to the level before the cut, consider a long. Same would go for
> the SP's since it would indicate something else "may be afoot"?
> don ewers
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Dorothy K. Carter" <dorothy.carter@xxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, October 02, 2001 10:41 AM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Bonds
>
>
> I think you will see sell the news either way as 1/2 pt is priced in
> already.. also key to watch the US$... once it rolls over which it
> surely could again you will see foreign sellers come in again on long
> end... with concerns of USA going into deficit spending you are seeing
> the pros move to short end.. and Swissy is safe haven vs US$ in war
> time..
> so plenty reason to be nervous about this leg up in bonds.... while it
> is possible they go a bit further... I don't have vol from yesterday but
> would guess this rally continues on lite vol which would be caution
> sign...
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Lee Morris <mailto:LMorris@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, October 02, 2001 11:32 AM
> Subject: RE: [RT] Bonds
>
> Just trying to figure out what senerio would make the equities go down
> to retest and bonds to roll over as suggested on the prev chart. If the
> fed only cut 1/4 then equities will be disapointed in the short term and
> head for the retest and bonds would soften as the cycle may be close to
> ending. just thinking and typing. any other thoughts
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Don Ewers [mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Tuesday, October 02, 2001 11:17 AM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: [RT] Bonds
>
>
> Dorthy,
> In the FWIW department the short term count on the 60min chart in AGET
> (and
> the 5/17 oscillator) indicated a further move up which materialized
> today it
> would appear. Attached is a 60min chart with the first two hours today
> showing the prices rallied up to the MOB so far today?
>
> I will update the daily and weekly after todays fed move, to see if
> there
> are any good indications the higher level MOB's there are possible.
>
> Point being when this thing has run its course it will be a great short
> with
> all this stimulus?
> don ewers
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: "Real Traders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Friday, September 28, 2001 1:48 PM
> Subject: [RT] Bonds
>
>
> > Dorthy,
> > You have repeatly mentioned that you thought DEc bonds will reach 98
> (which
> > I would tend to agree with direction wise, once the apparent market
> lows
> are
> > in).
> > But before that happens, is it possible the bonds go higher, first?
> >
> > Attached is what AGET is showing currently.
> >
> > The 60min, I went to "short term count" and the 5/17 oscillator since
> the
> > 5/35
> > and 10/70 oscillators have both lost control (in the original count
> and
> long
> > term
> > counts). It indicates bonds are possibly headed higher and they are in
> a
> > wave 3 (a wave 4 correction will occur along the way at some
> > point). The MOB above has not been reached (doesn't mean it has to, it
> is
> > just a target that if reached would provide some resistance). I what
> if'ed
> > in the first two hours today.
> >
> > The daily chart says 5 waves are in but the MOB was not reached and if
> there
> > is a new count down (1? and 2?) the the wave 2 went way too high? I
> am
> > thinking that the prior drop was minor wave 4 of wave 5? So again
> bonds
> > could move
> > higher. I what ifed in todays action so far (106-02 high).
> >
> > The weekly says we have yet to complete wave 5 also. The MOB there is
> > substantially higher (off of a different pivot, the old high in 1998).
> Looks
> > to me like we also
> > are putting in a weekly inside bar.
> >
> > So just a thought, that we could move higher, before we go lower.
> >
> > I would be interested in any thoughts on a spike move up at least to a
> new
> > "current" high above 107-01 please. If a double top spike top on the
> > weekly's were to occur, well that would be a gift for all of us (to
> sell),
> > but highly unlikely, that was a LTC thing.
> > don ewers
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> >
> >
> >
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> >
> >
>
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