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This is just a ST trade idea only certainly not a position suggestion (with
a stop of course).
The other thing to consider is both the SP and bonds have rallied TOGETHER
since 9-21-01, as opposed to the opposite direction many are use to.
don ewers
----- Original Message -----
From: "Dorothy Carter" <dorothy.carter@xxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, October 02, 2001 11:01 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Bonds
> I would be very nervous at these levels to consider either a long... I
> don't know I have final on yesterday's vol for bonds.. a futures analyst
> friend of mine said he had 147743 but he did not know if that was final
vol
> for yesterday... that is lower than last several days which has been lower
> than down move... I'd be very nervous long in either long end of bonds or
> SPZ right here
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, October 02, 2001 11:57 AM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Bonds
>
>
> > Today potentially sets up as a good "news reversal trade" day. Once the
> > reaction occurs (SP's or bonds) and assuming they are not wipping all
> over,
> > a trade back to the price point before the news event would be an
> indication
> > to go with it.
> >
> > Example the fed cuts a 1/4 point and bonds sell off a 1/2 point. If they
> > trade back to the level before the cut, consider a long. Same would go
for
> > the SP's since it would indicate something else "may be afoot"?
> > don ewers
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Dorothy K. Carter" <dorothy.carter@xxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Tuesday, October 02, 2001 10:41 AM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] Bonds
> >
> >
> > I think you will see sell the news either way as 1/2 pt is priced in
> > already.. also key to watch the US$... once it rolls over which it
> > surely could again you will see foreign sellers come in again on long
> > end... with concerns of USA going into deficit spending you are seeing
> > the pros move to short end.. and Swissy is safe haven vs US$ in war
> > time..
> > so plenty reason to be nervous about this leg up in bonds.... while it
> > is possible they go a bit further... I don't have vol from yesterday but
> > would guess this rally continues on lite vol which would be caution
> > sign...
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Lee Morris <mailto:LMorris@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Tuesday, October 02, 2001 11:32 AM
> > Subject: RE: [RT] Bonds
> >
> > Just trying to figure out what senerio would make the equities go down
> > to retest and bonds to roll over as suggested on the prev chart. If the
> > fed only cut 1/4 then equities will be disapointed in the short term and
> > head for the retest and bonds would soften as the cycle may be close to
> > ending. just thinking and typing. any other thoughts
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Don Ewers [mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > Sent: Tuesday, October 02, 2001 11:17 AM
> > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: Re: [RT] Bonds
> >
> >
> > Dorthy,
> > In the FWIW department the short term count on the 60min chart in AGET
> > (and
> > the 5/17 oscillator) indicated a further move up which materialized
> > today it
> > would appear. Attached is a 60min chart with the first two hours today
> > showing the prices rallied up to the MOB so far today?
> >
> > I will update the daily and weekly after todays fed move, to see if
> > there
> > are any good indications the higher level MOB's there are possible.
> >
> > Point being when this thing has run its course it will be a great short
> > with
> > all this stimulus?
> > don ewers
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: "Real Traders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Friday, September 28, 2001 1:48 PM
> > Subject: [RT] Bonds
> >
> >
> > > Dorthy,
> > > You have repeatly mentioned that you thought DEc bonds will reach 98
> > (which
> > > I would tend to agree with direction wise, once the apparent market
> > lows
> > are
> > > in).
> > > But before that happens, is it possible the bonds go higher, first?
> > >
> > > Attached is what AGET is showing currently.
> > >
> > > The 60min, I went to "short term count" and the 5/17 oscillator since
> > the
> > > 5/35
> > > and 10/70 oscillators have both lost control (in the original count
> > and
> > long
> > > term
> > > counts). It indicates bonds are possibly headed higher and they are in
> > a
> > > wave 3 (a wave 4 correction will occur along the way at some
> > > point). The MOB above has not been reached (doesn't mean it has to, it
> > is
> > > just a target that if reached would provide some resistance). I what
> > if'ed
> > > in the first two hours today.
> > >
> > > The daily chart says 5 waves are in but the MOB was not reached and if
> > there
> > > is a new count down (1? and 2?) the the wave 2 went way too high? I
> > am
> > > thinking that the prior drop was minor wave 4 of wave 5? So again
> > bonds
> > > could move
> > > higher. I what ifed in todays action so far (106-02 high).
> > >
> > > The weekly says we have yet to complete wave 5 also. The MOB there is
> > > substantially higher (off of a different pivot, the old high in 1998).
> > Looks
> > > to me like we also
> > > are putting in a weekly inside bar.
> > >
> > > So just a thought, that we could move higher, before we go lower.
> > >
> > > I would be interested in any thoughts on a spike move up at least to a
> > new
> > > "current" high above 107-01 please. If a double top spike top on the
> > > weekly's were to occur, well that would be a gift for all of us (to
> > sell),
> > > but highly unlikely, that was a LTC thing.
> > > don ewers
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
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