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In a message dated 9/30/2001 9:58:43 PM Eastern Daylight Time, rjv@xxxxxxxxxx writes:
Lenny, I disagree somewhat with you analysis. First, if you look at the chart I've attached you'll see that your sub wave 2 is one I designate as the top, or major wave 5. Our differences may be due to the time frames we are viewing: you're using a weekly chart and I'm using monthly bars.
LR - Agree!
Also, I designate the recent drop as A and I'm expecting a B will follow, which I think
will reach 1180 and not the 1050 - 1080 you think.
I didn't put it on my chart but the 78.6% retracement (which usually is my mendozza line for trend changes) is at 1166.11. My wave 1:5 low is at 1168.46 so wave 4:5 is still valid at that level. I would have no problem seeing the move get up into that area but it's got to get through 3 fib levels to get there so we'll have to wait and see.
My target works out well since it is 61.8% of the drop and also stikes the upsloping
support line that was broken in Sept. As I'm writing this, I just heard news report on radio from the BBC saying that the Northern Alliance is reporting massive defections of the Taliban troops. Of course this could be disinformaton, but I'm sure they'll be independant reports of this shortly. Also, they are saying that a major field commander defected who has vital info as to where bin Laden is. If this news is true and is validated during tomorrow's market session, I think there is going to be a nice pop that's going to propel the market higher. Keep in mind, if this is really occurring, it's even before the American military component has entered the fray.
Ralph
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