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Lenny there are two points that would change my thinking about the bear
trend (and perhaps the count/PTI probabilities as well). I am using the S&P
cash in the discussion below.
I agree with you on a .786 retracement and on a 60min chart (attached) it
comes in at 1136. If you look closely a red wave 4 channel is also starting
right at that level. Exceeding that level and the red wave 4 channel as you
know is the first clue that this is not a "normal" wave 4 correction to the
primary trend, so to me that would be the first clue that something is
potentially wrong.
Since the 60min, daily and weekly charts all fold into eachother as
previously posted a move up to that area would say something else might be
unfolding (and thus the possibility of a relabels to an ABC's).
It is important to note for those not familiar with AGET that the most
important goal of the software is to get the person on the right side of the
trade first, then to define setups that provide the highest possible risk
rewards. It's goal is NOT to label in EW terms the whole grand wave
structure. Keep in mind unless the default settings are changed it is only
analyzing the last 300 bars and using it's algorithms to label potentially
what the pattern could be in EW terms. For this reason it is wise to also
analyse what can "change the count". Generally that occurs when a wave 4
gets out of control using the 5/35, then the 10/70 and lastly the 5/17 which
generally says something has changed.
For this reason the 10/70 oscillator at the bottom (using "long term count"
since the 5/35 lost control exceeding 1.40 of the wave 3 depth on the
histogram) will also be a important clue if it too loses control, which
would send us to the 5/17 oscillator and "short term count" and according
the first hint at a 1-2-3 pattern starting up.
It would make sense that if the pattern were changing (and potentially
previous counts are wrong on the weekly and daily as well) it would show up
on the shorter term 60min chart first.
There is one other level that bears watching on the S&P cash and that is the
.618 wave 4 retracement at 1095. As a coincidence it is just above the 4 day
trading halt pre 9-11 level. If that level were taken out it would
represent a "news reversal" trade in some peoples eyes?
don ewers
----- Original Message -----
From: <rosow@xxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, September 30, 2001 10:07 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] S&P Longterm
> Ralph,
> Thanks for the post. See my comments below.
> Lenny
>
> In a message dated 9/30/2001 9:58:43 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
rjv@xxxxxxxxxx
> writes:
>
>
> > Lenny, I disagree somewhat with you analysis. First, if you look at the
> > chart I've attached you'll see that your sub wave 2 is one I designate
as
> > the top, or major wave 5. Our differences may be due to the time frames
we
> > are viewing: you're using a weekly chart and I'm using monthly bars.
>
> LR - Agree!
>
> Also, I designate the recent drop as A and I'm expecting a B will follow,
> which I think
> > will reach 1180 and not the 1050 - 1080 you think.
>
> I didn't put it on my chart but the 78.6% retracement (which usually is my
> mendozza line for trend changes) is at 1166.11. My wave 1:5 low is at
1168.46
> so wave 4:5 is still valid at that level. I would have no problem seeing
the
> move get up into that area but it's got to get through 3 fib levels to get
> there so we'll have to wait and see.
>
> My target works out well since it is 61.8% of the drop and also stikes the
> upsloping
> > support line that was broken in Sept. As I'm writing this, I just heard
news
> > report on radio from the BBC saying that the Northern Alliance is
reporting
> > massive defections of the Taliban troops. Of course this could be
> > disinformaton, but I'm sure they'll be independant reports of this
shortly.
> > Also, they are saying that a major field commander defected who has
vital
> > info as to where bin Laden is. If this news is true and is validated
during
> > tomorrow's market session, I think there is going to be a nice pop
that's
> > going to propel the market higher. Keep in mind, if this is really
> > occurring, it's even before the American military component has entered
the
> > fray.
> > Ralph
> >
> >
> >
>
>
>
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