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Lenny, I disagree somewhat with you analysis. First, if you look at the
chart I've attached you'll see that your sub wave 2 is one I designate
as the top, or major wave 5. Our differences may be due to the time frames
we are viewing: you're using a weekly chart and I'm using monthly bars.
Also, I designate the recent drop as A and I'm expecting a B will follow,
which I think will reach 1180 and not the 1050 - 1080 you think. My target
works out well since it is 61.8% of the drop and also stikes the upsloping
support line that was broken in Sept. As I'm writing this, I just heard
news report on radio from the BBC saying that the Northern Alliance is
reporting massive defections of the Taliban troops. Of course this could
be disinformaton, but I'm sure they'll be independant reports of this shortly.
Also, they are saying that a major field commander defected who has vital
info as to where bin Laden is. If this news is true and is validated during
tomorrow's market session, I think there is going to be a nice pop that's
going to propel the market higher. Keep in mind, if this is really occurring,
it's even before the American military component has entered the fray.
Ralph
rosow@xxxxxxx wrote:
All,
I'm looking
at 1050 as minor resistance and 1080ish as major resistance on the S&P
cash. What happens around these areas will clue me in to whether September's
low was a wave 5 or a 3:5.
Lenny
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