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<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Earl,
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
I
would disagree with the assumption that interest rates would be allowed to rise
in an atmosphere where economic recovery is impaired .
The
other factor to consider is how far has the $ got to go in its bull run
.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Serge
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Earl Adamy
[mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx]Sent: July 08, 2001 9:55 AMTo:
RealtradersSubject: Re: [RT] S&P Moment of
TruthNorman, I think you have it pretty well covered.
Only addition I would makeis that the daily wave structure from the April
low suggests the possibilitythat the rally into the May high was a w.1 and
this decline is a w.2,setting up the bullish case for a strong rally i.e.
w.3. I am rather dubiousregarding this scenario and will believe it if and
when we take out the Mayhigh. Still I do think we could get a pop here ...
AGet is showing strongtime clustering for a possible high in late July so I
doubt that any rallyis sustainable ... more likely an ABC correction and
resumption of trenddown.Overall, things are a bit murky regarding
the price structure in theequities market but on the whole the economic
picture looks negative whenone attempts to peer beyond the latest economic
release:Positive Low short term interest rates
Expansion of money supply Ingenuity and
creativityNegative Corporate earnings fattened by pension and
option gimmicks Dividends remain very low High levels of
corporate debt High levels of consumer debt Extreme high
valuations of US stock indexes relative to earnings Extreme high
valuation of US$ Extreme reliance on service sector Extreme
reliance on imports for manufactured goodsUnder the circumstances,
investors will likely find reward by remainingdefensive with a good measure
of bonds. Unfortunately, the wave structure inbonds, looks rather weak
suggesting the bull market in bonds is over andhigher rates lie ahead ...
major economic recovery or strong inflation.Since I don't see a major
economic recovery in the immediate future anddon't see further significant
rise in inflation, I am assuming that this isone of those times when the
wave structure is providing bad information.Earl-----
Original Message -----From: "Norman Winski"
<nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>;
<gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>;<get_traders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>;
<astrofinance@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent: Friday, July 06, 2001 10:34
PMSubject: [RT] S&P Moment of Truth I see some
important indicators converging next week for a possible changein trend for
theUS Stock Market via the S&P 500.1.Jupiter will change signs
which it only does every 11 months when itenters Cancer on 7/12.2.
S&P cash 1169 is a .618 retracement of the March to May rally. 1169 =
29Gemini which is where Jupiter will be until it reaches zero Cancer
(90degrees = 1170) on 7/12.3. Jupiter in Cancer should be friendly to
the US, born on the 4th of Julyand with several Crab planets.4. My
sentiment indicator, as of Friday's close, entered bullish territoryfor the
first time in several weeks, indicating the probability for a low in1-2
trading days.5. Even given the bearish case, if we stop at 1169 area, I can
see fivewaves down and should at least get a very good bounce. Please see
chartbelow.6. If SPX goes much more than $5 under 1169, time to throw in
the bullhorns, and go back to the barn. On the other hand, I have
cycles indicatingthat the Greenpan bail out should soon start having a
positive effect on theUS economy and markets until late summer.7.
Bottomline, I see the next few trading days as a "do or die" situationfor
the S&P 500 and probabaly the US stock market.Cheers,Norman
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