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The composite sentiment chart agrees with both Earl and Norman. Dollar
weighted and unweighted short term indicators give the odds to a rally after
two days, Friday was day one. Item 3, the probability sympathizer is the
longer term item and is still working off the high side suggesting more
downside longer term, like into the late 3rd early 4th quarter.
bobr
----- Original Message -----
From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: "Realtraders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, July 08, 2001 6:55 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] S&P Moment of Truth
> Norman, I think you have it pretty well covered. Only addition I would
make
> is that the daily wave structure from the April low suggests the
possibility
> that the rally into the May high was a w.1 and this decline is a w.2,
> setting up the bullish case for a strong rally i.e. w.3. I am rather
dubious
> regarding this scenario and will believe it if and when we take out the
May
> high. Still I do think we could get a pop here ... AGet is showing strong
> time clustering for a possible high in late July so I doubt that any rally
> is sustainable ... more likely an ABC correction and resumption of trend
> down.
>
> Overall, things are a bit murky regarding the price structure in the
> equities market but on the whole the economic picture looks negative when
> one attempts to peer beyond the latest economic release:
>
> Positive
> Low short term interest rates
> Expansion of money supply
> Ingenuity and creativity
> Negative
> Corporate earnings fattened by pension and option gimmicks
> Dividends remain very low
> High levels of corporate debt
> High levels of consumer debt
> Extreme high valuations of US stock indexes relative to earnings
> Extreme high valuation of US$
> Extreme reliance on service sector
> Extreme reliance on imports for manufactured goods
>
> Under the circumstances, investors will likely find reward by remaining
> defensive with a good measure of bonds. Unfortunately, the wave structure
in
> bonds, looks rather weak suggesting the bull market in bonds is over and
> higher rates lie ahead ... major economic recovery or strong inflation.
> Since I don't see a major economic recovery in the immediate future and
> don't see further significant rise in inflation, I am assuming that this
is
> one of those times when the wave structure is providing bad information.
>
> Earl
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; <gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>;
> <get_traders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; <astrofinance@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Friday, July 06, 2001 10:34 PM
> Subject: [RT] S&P Moment of Truth
>
>
>
> I see some important indicators converging next week for a possible
change
> in trend for the
> US Stock Market via the S&P 500.
>
> 1.Jupiter will change signs which it only does every 11 months when it
> enters Cancer on 7/12.
> 2. S&P cash 1169 is a .618 retracement of the March to May rally. 1169 =
29
> Gemini which is where Jupiter will be until it reaches zero Cancer (90
> degrees = 1170) on 7/12.
> 3. Jupiter in Cancer should be friendly to the US, born on the 4th of July
> and with several Crab planets.
> 4. My sentiment indicator, as of Friday's close, entered bullish territory
> for the first time in several weeks, indicating the probability for a low
in
> 1-2 trading days.
> 5. Even given the bearish case, if we stop at 1169 area, I can see five
> waves down and should at least get a very good bounce. Please see chart
> below.
> 6. If SPX goes much more than $5 under 1169, time to throw in the bull
> horns, and go back to the barn. On the other hand, I have cycles
indicating
> that the Greenpan bail out should soon start having a positive effect on
the
> US economy and markets until late summer.
> 7. Bottomline, I see the next few trading days as a "do or die" situation
> for the S&P 500 and probabaly the US stock market.
>
> Cheers,
>
> Norman Winski
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
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