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Jupiter Uranus trine was present for crash of 87.
Chris
--- In realtraders@xxxx, "Carl V" <carl.vanhaesendonck@xxxx> wrote:
> Norman,
>
> Your study below is really interesting. The only thing that
surprised
> me is that you seemed to forcast a dropping market for the second
> half of the week, though there is this huge Jupiter-Uranus Trine
> early next week (June 19)?!?
> I was surprised that this most positive astro pattern haven't had
> more impact on the market right now.
> I would be interested to have your valuable opinion on that.
>
> Best wishes
> Carl Vanhaesendonck
>
>
> --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxx> wrote:
> >
> > Norman
> > nwinski@xxxx
> >
> >
> > All times are EDT (GMT -4) or same as NYC.
> >
> > June 12 – minor pull back day, with some firming into closing
> bell. Could
> > be very whippy – choppy. Stay on your toes.
> >
> > A. = 10:29 AM = +4
> > B. = 12:37 PM = +1
> > C. = 1:00 PM = -8
> > D. = 1:34 PM = + 4
> > E. = 2:28 PM = - 2
> > F. = 2:58 PM = -2
> > G. = 3:10 PM = +2
> > H. = 3:36 PM = -2
> >
> >
> > June 13 = moderate up and then down for little net change
> >
> > A. = 9:54 AM + 8 (if big up opening, look for top here)
> > B. = 1:42 PM 8N (possible retest high)
> >
> > June 14 = most negative day of the week, should be a sizeable down
> >
> > A. = 12:40 AM = -32
> > B. = 1:04 PM = FYI Tone Change
> > C. = 3:49 PM = -2
> > D. = 3:49 PM = -8
> >
> >
> > June 15 = market bounces right back with a moderate up day led by
> computers
> > and electronics. Late afternoon sell off is likely.
> >
> > A. = 1:13 PM = -2
> > B. = 1:54 PM = -2
> > C. = 2:57 PM = +8 (market starts losing upside momentum)
> > D. = 3:37 PM = +4 = may retest high at C then some weakness into
> close.
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx>
> > To: "Real Traders" <realtraders@xxxx>
> > Sent: Tuesday, June 12, 2001 10:05 PM
> > Subject: [RT] Fw: Skeptic's Dictionary full moon and lunar
> effects.htm
> >
> >
> > > A fairly asute astronomer emailed me this recently. "Maybe the
> most
> > > important point made is the statement "Some people even buy and
> sell
> > stocks
> > > according to phases of the moon, "a method probably as
sucessful"
> as many
> > > others". Bottom line if "whatever you are doing" works, don't
> fix it and
> > > don't try to convince others it works, to each their own?
> > > don ewers
> > > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> > >
> > > Skeptic's Dictionary: full moon and lunar effects
> > > Robert Todd Carroll
> > >
> > > SkepDic.com
> > > RE: full moon and lunar effects
> > >
> > > The full moon has been linked to crime, suicide, mental
> illness,
> > > disasters, accidents, birthrates, fertility, and werewolves,
> among other
> > > things. Some people even buy and sell stocks according to
phases
> of the
> > > moon, a method probably as successful as many others. Numerous
> studies
> > have
> > > tried to find lunar effects. So far, the studies have failed to
> establish
> > > anything of interest, except that the idea of the full moon
> definitely
> > sends
> > > some lunatics (after luna, the Latin word for moon) over the
> edge. (Lunar
> > > effects that have been found have little or nothing to do with
> human
> > > behavior, e.g., the discovery of a slight effect of the moon on
> global
> > > temperature,* which in turn might have an effect on the growth
of
> > plants.*)
> > >
> > > Ivan Kelly, James Rotton and Roger Culver examined over
100
> studies
> > on
> > > lunar effects and concluded that the studies have failed to
show a
> > reliable
> > > and significant correlation (i.e., one not likely due to
chance)
> between
> > the
> > > full moon, or any other phase of the moon, and each of the
> following:
> > >
> > >
> > > -the homicide rate
> > > -traffic accidents
> > > -crisis calls to police or fire stations
> > > -domestic violence
> > > -births of babies
> > > -suicide
> > > -major disasters
> > > -casino payout rates
> > > -assassinations
> > > -kidnappings
> > > -aggression by professional hockey players
> > > -violence in prisons
> > > -psychiatric admissions
> > > -agitated behavior by nursing home residents
> > > -assaults
> > > -gunshot wounds
> > > -stabbings
> > > -emergency room admissions
> > > -behavioral outbursts of psychologically challenged
rural
> adults
> > > -lycanthropy
> > > -vampirism
> > > -alcoholism
> > > -sleep walking
> > > -epilepsy
> > >
> > > If so many studies have failed to prove a significant
> correlation
> > > between the full moon and anything, why do so many people
believe
> in these
> > > lunar myths? Kelly, Rotton, and Culver suspect four factors:
media
> > effects,
> > > folklore and tradition, misconceptions, and cognitive biases. I
> would add
> > a
> > > fifth factor: communal reinforcement.
> > >
> > > the media perpetuates lunar myths
> > >
> > > Kelly, et al., note that lunar myths are frequently
> presented in
> > films
> > > and works of fiction. "With the constant media repetition of an
> > association
> > > between the full moon and human behavior it is not surprising
> that such
> > > beliefs are widespread in the general public," they say.
> Reporters also
> > > "favor those who claim that the full moon influences behavior."
It
> > wouldn't
> > > be much of a story if the moon was full and nothing happened,
> they note.
> > > Anecdotal evidence for lunar effects is not hard to find and
> reporters lap
> > > it up, even though such evidence is unreliable for establishing
> > significant
> > > correlations. Relying on personal experience ignores the
> possibility of
> > > self-deception and confirmation bias. Such evidence may be
> unreliable,
> > but
> > > it is nonetheless persuasive to the uncritical mind.
> > >
> > > Folklore and tradition:
> > >
> > > Many lunar myths are rooted in folklore. For example, an
> ancient
> > > Assyrian/Babylonian fragment stated that "A woman is fertile
> according to
> > > the moon." Such notions have been turned into widespread
> misconceptions
> > > about fertility and birthrates. For example, Eugen Jonas, a
> Slovakian
> > > psychiatrist, was inspired by this bit of folklore to create a
> method of
> > > birth control and fertility largely rooted in astrological
> superstitions.
> > > The belief that there are more births during a full moon
persists
> today
> > > among many educated people. Scientific studies, however, have
> failed to
> > find
> > > any significant correlation between the full moon and number of
> births
> > (See
> > > "Lunar phase and birth rate: A fifty-year critical review," by
R.
> Martens,
> > > I. Kelly, and D. H. Saklofske, Psychological Reports, 63, 923-
> 934, "Lunar
> > > phase and birthrate: An update," by I. Kelly and R. Martens,
> Psychological
> > > Reports, 75, 507-511). In 1991, Benski and Gerin reported that
> they had
> > > analyzed birthdays of 4,256 babies born in a clinic in France
> and "found
> > > them equally distributed throughout the synodic (phase) lunar
> cycle"
> > (Kelly,
> > > et al. 1996, 19). In 1994, Italian researchers Periti and
> Biagiotti
> > reported
> > > on their study of 7,842 spontaneous deliveries over a 5-year
> period at a
> > > clinic in Florence. They found "no relationship between moon
> phase and
> > > number of spontaneous deliveries" (Kelly, et al. 1996, 19).
> > >
> > > Despite the fact that there is no evidence of a
significant
> > > correlation between phases of the moon and fertility, some
people
> not only
> > > maintain that there is, they have a "scientific" explanation
for
> the
> > > non-existent correlation. According to "Angela" of
> AstraConceptions at
> > > fertilityrhythms.com,
> > >
> > > ...photic (light) signals sent by the lens and retina
of
> the eyes
> > > are converted into hormone signals by the pineal gland. It is
the
> pineal
> > > gland which signals the onset of puberty in humans and plays a
> part in the
> > > fertility rhythms of all species.
> > >
> > > In animals which reproduce seasonally, it is the
changing
> light
> > > patterns which trigger the fertility cycle. The gradual change
in
> both the
> > > length of day and the changing angle of the sun in the sky
> (caused by
> > > earth's motion) is interpreted by the pineal gland as a signal
to
> commence
> > > the fertility season.
> > >
> > > Of course, humans do not reproduce seasonally. Our
> fertility
> > cycles
> > > exhibit an obvious monthly rhythm. The light source which has a
> monthly
> > > periodicity is, of course, the Moon.
> > >
> > > It is interesting to note that menstruation is actually
a
> shedding
> > > process. Just as the average menstrual cycle is 28 days in
> length, the
> > human
> > > body sheds a layer of skin approximately every 28 days.
> > >
> > > Yes, that is very interesting to note...if you are
> interested in
> > > sympathetic magic. (The author also finds it noteworthy that
> animals which
> > > reproduce seasonally also shed their coats seasonally.) The
author
> > continues
> > >
> > > ...it is not only the changing day length but also the
> changing
> > > angular position of the sun which triggers this process; the
> pineal gland
> > > receives photic (light) impressions and converts these into
> hormonal
> > > messages which signal the onset of these cycles.
> > >
> > > With humans the cycles of fertility (and shedding) are
> triggered
> > by
> > > photic impressions as well. Yet our cycles have a monthly
> periodicity
> > which
> > > is obviously synchronized with fluctuations of the lunar light.
> > >
> > > Obviously. However, the light of the moon is a very minor
> source of
> > > light in most women's lives, and is no more likely than the
moon's
> > > gravitational force to have a significant effect upon a woman's
> ovulation.
> > > Furthermore, the average menstrual cycle is 28 days but varies
> from woman
> > to
> > > woman and month to month, while the length of the lunar month
is a
> > > consistent 29.53 days.* Some of us have noticed that these
cycles
> are not
> > > identical. Furthermore, it would seem odd that natural
selection
> would
> > favor
> > > a method of reproduction for a species like ours that depended
on
> the
> > > weather. Clouds are bound to be irregularly and frequently
> blocking
> > > moonlight, which would seem to hinder rather than enhance our
> species'
> > > chance for survival.
> > >
> > > Some mythmakers believe that long ago women all bled in
> sync with
> > the
> > > moon, but civilization and indoor electric lighting (or even
the
> discovery
> > > of fire by primitive humans) has messed up their rhythmic
cycle.
> This
> > theory
> > > may seem plausible until one remembers that there are quite a
few
> other
> > > mammals on the planet who have not been affected by firelight or
> > > civilization's indoor lighting and, with the exception of the
> opossum,
> > their
> > > cycles aren't in harmony with the moon. In the lemur, on the
> other hand,
> > > "estrus and sex tend to occur around the time of the full
moon."*
> In
> > short,
> > > given the large number of types of mammals on our planet, one
> would expect
> > > that by chance some species' estrus and menstrual cycles would
> harmonize
> > > with lunar cycles. It is doubtful that there is anything of
> metaphysical
> > > significance in this.
> > >
> > > What we do know is that there has been very little
research
> on
> > > hormonal or neurochemical changes during lunar phases. James
> Rotton's
> > search
> > > of the literature "failed to uncover any studies linking lunar
> cycles to
> > > substances that have been implicated as possible correlates of
> stress and
> > > aggression (e.g., serotonin, melatonin, epinephrine,
> norepinephrine,
> > > testosterone, cortisol, vasopressin [directly relevant to fluid
> content],
> > > growth hormone, pH, 17-OHCS, adrenocrotropic hormone)."* One
> would think
> > > that this area would be well-studied, since hormones and
> neurochemicals
> > are
> > > known to affect menstruation and behavior.
> > >
> > > Misconceptions:
> > >
> > > Kelly et al. note that misconceptions about such things
as
> the
> > moon's
> > > effect on tides have contributed to lunar mythology. Many
people
> seem to
> > > think that since the moon affects the ocean's tides, it must be
so
> > powerful
> > > that it affects the human body as well. It is actually a very
> weak tidal
> > > force. A mother holding her child "will exert 12 million times
as
> much
> > tidal
> > > force on her child as the moon" (Kelly et al., 1996, 25).
> Astronomer
> > George
> > > O. Abell claims that the moon's gravitational pull is less than
> that of a
> > > mosquito (Abell 1979). Despite these physical facts, there is
> still
> > > widespread belief that the moon can cause earthquakes. It
> doesn't; nor
> > does
> > > the sun, which exerts much less tidal force on the earth than
the
> moon.*
> > >
> > > The fact that the human body is mostly water largely
> contributes to
> > > the notion that the moon should have a powerful effect upon the
> human body
> > > and therefore an effect upon behavior. It is claimed by many
that
> the
> > earth
> > > and the human body both are 80% water. This is false. Eighty
> percent of
> > the
> > > surface of the earth is water. Furthermore, the moon only
affects
> > unbounded
> > > bodies of water, while the water in the human body is bounded.
> > >
> > > Also, the tidal force of the moon on the earth depends on
> its
> > distance
> > > from earth, not its phase. Whereas the synodic period is 29.53
> days, it
> > > takes 27.5 days for the moon to move in its elliptical orbit
from
> perigee
> > to
> > > perigee (or apogee to apogee). Perigee (when the moon is
closest
> to earth)
> > > "can occur at any phase of the synodic cycle" (Kelly et al.
1990,
> 989).
> > > Higher tides do occur at new and full moons, but not because
the
> moon's
> > > gravitational pull is stronger at those times. Rather, the
tides
> are
> > higher
> > > then because "the sun, earth, and moon are in a line and the
> tidal force
> > of
> > > the sun joins that of the moon at those times to produce higher
> tides"
> > > (Kelly et al. 1990, 989).
> > >
> > > Many of the misconceptions about the moon's gravitational
> effect on
> > > the tides, as well as several other lunar misconceptions, seem
to
> have
> > been
> > > generated by Arnold Lieber in The Lunar Effect (1978),
> republished in 1996
> > > as How the Moon Affects You. Leiber incorrectly predicted a
> catastrophic
> > > earthquake would hit California in 1982 due to the coincidental
> alignment
> > of
> > > the moon and planets.
> > >
> > > Cognitive biases and communal reinforcement:
> > >
> > > Finally, many believe in lunar myths because they have
> heard them
> > > repeated many times by members of the mass media, by police
> officers,
> > > nurses, doctors, social workers, and other people with
influence.
> Once
> > many
> > > people believe something and enjoy a significant amount of
> communal
> > > reinforcement, they get very selective about the type of data
> they pay
> > > attention to in the future. If one believes that during a full
> moon there
> > is
> > > an increase in accidents, one will notice when accidents occur
> during a
> > full
> > > moon, but be inattentive to the moon when accidents occur at
> other times.
> > If
> > > something strange happens and there is a full moon at the time,
a
> causal
> > > connection will be assumed. If something strange happens and
> there is no
> > > full moon, no connection is made, but the event is not seen as
> > > counterevidence to the belief in full moon causality. Memories
get
> > > selective, and perhaps even distorted, to favor a full moon
> hypothesis. A
> > > tendency to do this over time strengthens one's belief in the
> relationship
> > > between the full moon and a host of unrelated effects.
> > >
> > > The moon, madness and suicide:
> > >
> > > Probably the most widely believed myth about the full
moon
> is that
> > it
> > > is associated with madness. However, in examining over 100
> studies, Kelly,
> > > Rotton and Culver found that "phases of the moon accounted for
no
> more
> > than
> > > 3/100 of 1 percent of the variability in activities usually
> termed lunacy"
> > > (1996, 18). According to James Rotton, "such a small percentage
> is too
> > close
> > > to zero to be of any theoretical, practical, or statistical
> interest or
> > > significance."*
> > >
> > > Finally, the notion that there is a lunar influence on
> suicide is
> > also
> > > unsubstantiated. Martin, Kelly and Saklofske reviewed numerous
> studies
> > done
> > > over nearly three decades and found no significant association
> between
> > > phases of the moon and suicide deaths, attempted suicides, or
> suicide
> > > threats. In 1997, Gutiérrez-García and Tusell studied 897
suicide
> deaths
> > in
> > > Madrid and found "no significant relationship between the
synodic
> cycle
> > and
> > > the suicide rate" (1997, 248). These studies, like others which
> have
> > failed
> > > to find anything interesting happening during the full moon,
have
> gone
> > > largely, but not completely*, unreported in the press.
> > >
> > >
> > > ----------------------------------------------------------------
--
> --------
> > >
> > > update Feb 1, 2000: According to Allan Hall of the Sunday-
> Times,
> > > German researchers Hans-Joachim Mittmeyer of the University of
> Tübingen
> > and
> > > Norbert Filipp from the Health Institute of Reutlingen claim
> that "a study
> > > of police reports for 50 new and full Moon cycles" shows that
the
> moon is
> > > "responsible for binge drinking."
> > >
> > > According to Hall, Mittmeyer and Filipp claim in their
paper
> > "Alcohol
> > > Consumption and the Moon's Influence" to have studied police
> arrest
> > reports
> > > and blood-alcohol tests of 16,495 people and Mittmeyer
said "The
> results
> > > show there is a definite correlation between new and full Moons
> and the
> > > amount of alcohol consumed."
> > >
> > > Hall writes:
> > >
> > > More of those with an excess of 2ml of alcohol per
100ml
> of blood
> > > inside them - drunk, according to German law - were caught by
> police
> > during
> > > the five-day full Moon cycle.
> > >
> > > On average 175 drink[sic]-drivers per day were caught
in
> two
> > German
> > > states two days before a full Moon, 161 were caught during the
> full Moon
> > > cycle and the figure dropped to about 120 per day at other
times.
> > >
> > > This very unclear statement has to be interpreted. I took
> it to mean
> > > that an average of 175 drunk drivers were caught each day on
days
> one and
> > > two of the five-day cycle. Thus, if the average for the whole
> five-day
> > cycle
> > > was only 161, there were substantially fewer drunk drivers
caught
> on the
> > > night of the full moon. Thus, it appeared to me that the
> researchers were
> > > not able to correlate the full moon with an increase in
arrests,
> so they
> > > created 'the full moon cycle', a five day period, which gave
them
> the
> > > statistical correlations they were looking for.
> > >
> > > Apparently, however, I was wrong in my interpretation of
> Hall's
> > > meaning and Hall erred in his reading of a report from the
German
> Press
> > > Agency DPA which erred in its reading of the original paper
which
> erred in
> > > its interpretation of the data.
> > >
> > > Jan Willem Nienhuys, a mathematician in the Eindhoven
> (Netherlands)
> > > University of Technology, claims that "Hall's story is a
garbled
> version
> > of
> > > a story by the German Press Agency DPA." According to Nienhuys,
> Hall
> > > invented the notion of a five-day full Moon cycle; the
expression
> is not
> > > used by Mittmeyer and Filipp in their paper. Furthermore, 668
of
> the
> > 16,495
> > > arrested and tested were found to be sober, leaving 15,827 with
> alcohol in
> > > their blood, but only 4,512 with more than 0.2 percent blood
> alcohol
> > (i.e.,
> > > drunk).
> > >
> > > According to Nienhuys, the 161 figure refers to the
average
> number
> > of
> > > drunk drivers arrested on any given date in the lunar month; he
> believes
> > > this number was arrived at by dividing 4,512 by 28 (rather than
> 29.53, the
> > > length of a lunar month) and hence should be 153, not 161.
About
> the only
> > > thing Hall got right, says Nienhuys, is that Mittmeyer and
Filipp
> do claim
> > > to have found a significant correlation between the moon and
> excessive
> > > drinking. He notes that the pair provide graphs but no
statistical
> > analysis
> > > of their data. When such an analysis is done, says Nienhuys,
one
> discovers
> > > that the study is "pompous pseudoscience." According to
Nienhuys,
> a
> > standard
> > > statistical test yields p-values which show that there is
nothing
> to
> > > investigate.
> > >
> > > Here is the data, according to Nienhuys. Day 0 is the day
> of the new
> > > moon and day 14 is the full moon.
> > >
> > > day drunks drinkers, including drunks
> > > 0 145 551
> > > 1 160 528
> > > 2 162 552
> > > 3 122 527
> > > 4 162 538
> > > 5 157 531
> > > 6 156 504
> > > 7 158 560
> > > 8 140 523
> > > 9 152 540
> > > 10 150 552
> > > 11 146 477
> > > 12 173 563
> > > 13 150 545
> > > 14 150 523
> > > 15 149 498
> > > 16 145 543
> > > 17 142 539
> > > 18 143 507
> > > 19 119 508
> > > 20 157 532
> > > 21 163 552
> > > 22 156 513
> > > 23 148 530
> > > 24 154 528
> > > 25 158 536
> > > 26 175 582
> > > 27 176 581
> > > 28 169 590
> > > ---------------------
> > > 4437 15553
> > > missing 75 274
> > >
> > > ---------------------
> > > 4512 15827
> > > The three big days were the 12th, 26th and 27th. You
figure
> it out!
> > >
> > > (Nienhuys article, entitled "Triply garbled tripe" is
being
> prepared
> > > for publication. He was kind enough to send me a pre-
publication
> copy of
> > the
> > > paper.)
> > >
> > >
> > > ----------------------------------------------------------------
--
> --------
> > >
> > > See related entries on communal reinforcement,
confirmation
> bias,
> > > control study, Occam's razor, the post hoc fallacy, selective
> thinking,
> > > self-deception, and subjective validation.
> > >
> > >
> > > ----------------------------------------------------------------
--
> --------
> > >
> > > further reading
> > >
> > > reader comments
> > >
> > > a.. Moonstruck! Does The Full Moon Influence Behavior?
by
> Eric
> > > Chudler
> > > b.. lunar cycles
> > > c.. James Rotton's review of Arnold Lieber's How the
Moon
> Affects
> > > You
> > > d.. full moon fun Urban Legends
> > > e.. LunarColony.com
> > > f.. Menstrual Cycles: What Really Happens in those 28
> Days?! from
> > > the Feminist Women's Health Center
> > > g.. What's the link between the moon and menstruation?
> Cecil
> > Adams,
> > > The Straight Dope
> > > Abell, George. "The Alleged Lunar Effect" in Science
> Confronts the
> > > Paranormal, edited by Kendrick Frazier. (Buffalo, N.Y.:
> Prometheus Books,
> > > 1986). Abel provides a very critical review of psychiatrist
> Arnold L.
> > > Lieber's The Lunar Effect: Biological Tides and Human Emotions.
> > >
> > > Abell, George O. "The moon and the birthrate," Skeptical
> Inquirer,
> > > Summer 1979, vol. 3, no. 4.
> > >
> > > Hines, Terence. Pseudoscience and the Paranormal
(Buffalo,
> NY:
> > > Prometheus Books, 1990).
> > >
> > > Byrnes, Gail and I.W. Kelly. "Crisis Calls and Lunar
> Cycles: A
> > > Twenty-Year Review," Psychological Reports, 1992, 71, 779-785.
> > >
> > > Gutiérrez-García, J. M. and F. Tusell. "Suicides and the
> Lunar
> > > Cycle," Psychological Reports, 1997, 80, 243-250.
> > >
> > > Jamison, Kay R. Night Falls Fast: Understanding Suicide
> (Knopf,
> > 1999).
> > >
> > > Kelly, I. W., W. H. Laverty, and D. H.
> Saklofske. "Geophysical
> > > variables and behavior: LXIV. An empirical investigation of the
> > relationship
> > > between worldwide automobile traffic disasters and lunar
cycles:
> No
> > > Relationship," Psychological Reports, 1990, 67, 987-994.
> > >
> > > Kelly, I.W., James Rotton, and Roger Culver. "The Moon
was
> Full and
> > > Nothing Happened: A Review of Studies on the Moon and Human
> Behavior and
> > > Human Belief," in J. Nickell, B. Karr and T. Genoni, eds., The
> Outer Edge
> > > (Amherst, N.Y.: CSICOP, 1996). This is an updated version of an
> article
> > > which originally appeared in the Skeptical Inquirer Winter 1985-
> 86 (vol.
> > 10,
> > > no. 2) and was reprinted in The Hundredth Monkey and Other
> Paradigms of
> > the
> > > Paranormal, edited by Kendrick Frazier (Buffalo, N.Y.:
Prometheus
> Books,
> > > 1991), pp. 222-234.
> > >
> > > Martin, S.J., I.W. Kelly and D.H. Saklofske. "Suicide and
> Lunar
> > > Cycles: A Critical Review over 28 Years," Psychological
Reports,
> 1992, 71,
> > > 787-795.
> > >
> > > ©copyright 2000
> > > Robert Todd Carroll
> > > Raymond Moody
> > > Last updated 04/26/01
> > >
> > > morphic resonance
> > >
> > >
> > > SkepDic.com
> > >
> > >
> > > Search the Skeptic's Dictionary
> > >
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