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Hi
there,
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I have
the benefit of having opened this message at random before the ones preceding it
which would have given me a better idea of what you both are discussing
.
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So in
a way I can talk only of the statistics and I suggest here the SAMPLE SIZE is
far TOO small and subject to wide fluctuations.
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<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Serge
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size=2>-----Original Message-----From: delta88343@xxxxxxx
[mailto:delta88343@xxxxxxx]Sent: May 23, 2001 19:39 PMTo:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT] R Points - Analytical
Proof?In a message
dated 5/23/01 7:17:45 PM Eastern Daylight Time, dtgraham@xxxxxxxxxxxx
writes:
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"
TYPE="CITE">I WAS going to go back to lurking but I can't let this one pass.
This was the whole point of my posting "R-points" What do you mean by
"good correlation". Correlation is a statistical term so what IS the
correlation you are suggesting. Putting the points on a chart no more
PROVES there is a correlation than do my "R-points" on 3 different
instruments, which I think show "good correlation"
I don't know but lets take a look at it statistically.
I have never studied statistics so if my methodolgy is wrong excuse me.
Point 1 Starting at a random point, the previous projected low
was 12 days prior the projected turn was 3 days late for a 15 day spread.
12/15=80% Point 2 From one projected turn to the next, 10 days.
Actual turn 1 day early. 9/10=90% Point 3 Next projected
turn 11 days. Actual turn date 14 days. 11/14=78.5% Point 4 Next
projected turn 7 days. Actual turn 12 days. 7/12=58.3% Point 5
Next projected turn 9 days. Actual turn 15 days 9/15=60% Point 6
Next projected turn 12 days. Actual turn 12 days 12/12=100%
Point 7 Next projected turn 5 days. actual turn 3 days. 3/5=60%
Point 8 Next projected turn 8 days. Actual turn 7 days.
7/8=87.5% Point 9 Next projected turn 6 days. Actual turn 4
days. 4/6=66% Point 10 Next projected turn 6 days. Actual turn 6
days. 6/6=100% Point 11 Next projected turn 8 days. actual turn
7 days. 7/8=87.5% That should be enough shouldn't it? Add all up
and divide by N = 78.9% Is this excersize statistically valid? Would
this represent a 78.9% correlation? Does this address your question?
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