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...Can you spell "The Emeror has no clothes?"
Obviously even I can't spell Emperor :-)
dave
----- Original Message -----
From: "d graham" <dtgraham@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 4:39 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] R Points
> ...."Perhaps you did not see it, or maybe you did, but about a week ago I
> posted a Delta chart for the SP. I don't think one could look at the chart
> and say that there is no correlation or that one really needs to make a
> stretch in order to notice a correlation."
>
> Actually I did see it and I guess that despite my masters and doctoral
> degrees I guess I am too stupid to notice any greater correlation than the
> random dates I posted. Notice on my charts how I carefully positioned the
> stars to accentuate the visual effect that they were indeed effective.
> However since you threw down the gauntlet I will resurrect my "R-Points",
> stick my neck out and say there will be a turning point on May 24th and
> May30th +/- 2 days.
>
> As it has been said several times if it works for you great, but if you
are
> trying to present it as a valid technique then please have some data to
back
> it up beyond "I don't think one could look at the chart and say that there
> is no correlation or that one really needs to make a stretch in order to
> notice a correlation.". Can you spell "The Emeror has no clothes?"
>
> dave
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: <delta88343@xxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 4:09 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] DA moon and Delta
>
>
> >
> > Perhaps you did not see it, or maybe you did, but about a week ago I
> posted a Delta chart for the SP. I don't think one could look at the chart
> and say that there is no correlation or that one really needs to make a
> stretch in order to notice a correlation.
> >
> > No one system is 100% stand alone. Confirming indicators are always
> beneficial. Whether Delta fits one's trading style and comfort level is
> another story...as with any trading methodology. There are obviously
> numerous ways to skin this cat we call the markets and not everyone is
adept
> or as knowledable on how to best use specific indicators.
> >
> > But if anyone believes they can just choose any day of the week, plus or
> minus a day or 2 to place a trade...be my guest and bet the house.
> >
> > Also, with Delta, inversions can only happen at specific times within
> various cycles. Inversions are also accounted for in other cycle work
> outside of Delta. So it appears to be a phenomenon exposed by cycle work
and
> a function of cycles.
> >
> > I used to be in communication with an excellent trader (JD) who
primarily
> used cycles. In his work which was proprietary, cycles inverted also.
> >
> >
> > In a message dated Wed, 23 May 2001 3:21:15 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
"d
> graham" <dtgraham@xxxxxxxxxxxx> writes:
> >
> > << Thanks Dennis for putting it so elegantly, I was obviously being very
> > "tongue in cheek" with my posts, but my point was exactly that - for
> example
> > my next "R-point" is next wednesday. Give it +/- 2 days and the chances
> are
> > pretty good there will be a turning point next week. No turning point -
> then
> > it must be an "inversion" or "continuation".
> >
> > And to answer Ira since I believe the comment about plane (sic)
nastiness
> > was directed about me- I have nothing against planes, and I actually
> thought
> > my posts were pretty funny and not in any way nasty. And to answer Ira's
> > point about random numbers working over an extended period of time -
where
> > is the proof that Delta works any better than say, choosing every
> wednesday
> > +/- 2 days
> >
> > dave
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "DH" <catapult@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 1:55 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] DA moon and Delta
> >
> >
> > > > So just for fun, I
> > > > just chose 4 dates in the last 4 weeks - april 23, may 1, 7, 17 and
> > > > then chose a commodity TY M1. I placed the stars on the dates -
pretty
> > > > impressive!
> > >
> > > Yep. At the risk of getting in trouble again for trying to inject a
> > > little logic into an emotional topic, let's think about it a little.
The
> > > key is that +/- 2 days. Usually, I've seen trading days used for that,
> > > so that's 5 trading days total, or a week, or a quarter of a lunar
> > > cycle. If we look at all 4 phases of the moon, we've covered the whole
> > > month. If we only look at one phase, such as the new moon, that
focuses
> > > it tighter but, if we are willing to accept several different events
as
> > > significant, it still can hardly miss. Bear with me here....
> > >
> > > New moon +/- 2 trading days (25% of the month covered)
> > >
> > > 25% chance of a high during the period by random chance
> > > 25% chance of a low during the period by random chance
> > > -------------------
> > > 50% chance of a high or a low by random chance within +/- 2 days
> > >
> > > Now, if we can find 2 more conditions we consider significant, say a
> > > "continuation" and [I don't know what else], we have a 100% chance of
> > > "something" happening within +/- 2 days of the new moon.
> > >
> > > Just to be clear, I'm not claiming there is nothing to the moon effect
> > > or the planet effect or the sunspot effect. It's just that we need to
be
> > > careful how we test it or we can fall into a statistical "can't miss"
> > > trap that reinforces what we already want to believe.
> > >
> > > Eyeballing the chart for correlations is particularly deceptive.
System
> > > traders learn early on that the eye is easily fooled. Plot your
favorite
> > > system as an indicator and your attention focuses in on the "good"
> > > events and totally misses many of the "bad" events. You will swear the
> > > system is nearly perfect. It's only when you run the statistics that
you
> > > find all those times it didn't work as expected.
> > >
> > > --
> > > Dennis
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
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> >
> > >>
> >
> >
> >
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